TD#9

#81 Postby **mvtrucking** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:49 pm

senorpepr wrote:
jax wrote::chopper:
when will recon go?

Not for a while... 09L is still WAY out there. Recon can't make a flight at this distance.

Don't they fly C-130 type aircraft? I caught a hop from McCord AF base in Tacoma,Wa to Dyess AF base outside of Abilene,Tx (I want to guess 2000 miles one way) when I was in the Army.

wxmann_91 · #82 Postby **wxmann_91** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:49 pm

WindRunner wrote:
Swimdude wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Luis, will this be considered the first Cape Verde system of the season?

YES.

WOOHOO! CV season has begun; August 3rd.

One more record to claim for '05.

The CV season for 1980 began on July 31 with Hurricane Allen, so we didn't break that record (unless you count Emily as a CV storm).

Petmom · #83 Postby **Petmom** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:50 pm

jax wrote:God help us all!!

That is what I thought too.................

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... OP&large=1

:eek:

WindRunner · #84 Postby **WindRunner** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:51 pm

models for TD9:

A98E in yellow.

from http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

#85 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:52 pm

Don't they go by the ships models till it gets closer?

x-y-no · #86 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:54 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Interesting that the 12Z GFS has changed its tune on the "fish philosophy". It now rebuilds the ridge north of Irene and heads it toward the mid Atlantic coast in two weeks. As far out as this system is, it may be 4-5 days before we see any recon head out.

You have the site for GFS after 5 days?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

#87 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:56 pm

good vantage point

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

#88 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:58 pm

What model does the best?

DESTRUCTION5 · #89 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:59 pm

x-y-no wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Interesting that the 12Z GFS has changed its tune on the "fish philosophy". It now rebuilds the ridge north of Irene and heads it toward the mid Atlantic coast in two weeks. As far out as this system is, it may be 4-5 days before we see any recon head out.

You have the site for GFS after 5 days?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Thanks

Trended way west!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

beachbum_al · #90 Postby **beachbum_al** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:02 pm

Here we go. Get the coffee and the snacks. It is going to be a long two months!

#91 Postby **wx247** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:10 pm

May need to start a new thread when the advisory comes out. lol

BensonTCwatcher · #92 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:11 pm

Wow, I hope that does not verify. WAYYYY too soon to buy gas for the generator.

#93 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:14 pm

wx247 wrote:May need to start a new thread when the advisory comes out. lol

That is what I will do.Folks you can keep the replies in this thread talking about TD#9 but when I open the advisorie thread I would like it to keep it as free as possible from all of the talk to let the official information flow in.Thanks for your cooperation .

#94 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:15 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Interesting that the 12Z GFS has changed its tune on the "fish philosophy". It now rebuilds the ridge north of Irene and heads it toward the mid Atlantic coast in two weeks. As far out as this system is, it may be 4-5 days before we see any recon head out.

You have the site for GFS after 5 days?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Thanks

Trended way west!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

looks like NC to me from that

Derecho · #95 Postby **Derecho** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:16 pm

storms in NC wrote:What model does the best?

It obviously varies from storm to storm and season to season, but the best are models that are consensuses or averages of a lot of other models.

The top two generally are the FSU Superensemble (not avaliable to the public..it also incorporates the previous NHC forecast into itself as well so it's not pure "model") and GUNA (an average of the GFDL, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS.

All components of the GUNA are public. CONU is similar to GUNA, I forget the differences, and if you have Stormtrakker software you can download CONU tracks automatically for storms from ATFC (And you can make your own GUNA plots.)

floridahurricaneguy · #96 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:19 pm

Well if its NC and happens to be a saturday or sunday then I am going to North Carolina! Grandparents live on the sound there. Hurricane Chasing!

Matt

Astro_man92 · #97 Postby **Astro_man92** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:21 pm

Whenis this invest forcasted to become a depression if it does today and we have another invest tomorow we can safly say that the battle has just begun

or

the race is being kicked into high gear

#98 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:22 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:Well if its NC and happens to be a saturday or sunday then I am going to North Carolina! Grandparents live on the sound there. Hurricane Chasing!

Matt

Sorry but I don't think it will be here that fast.Oh and where are they at?

vacanechaser · #99 Postby **vacanechaser** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:24 pm

storms in NC wrote:Don't they go by the ships models till it gets closer?

Ships model is an intensity model only... When you saw the forecast wind speeds on the model out puts at the start of this thread, that is from ships.

The model that seems to do the best is possibly the euro. but we get one run of that a day. we will have to wait and see what it says later tonight.

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Normandy · #100 Postby **Normandy** » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:35 pm

Eh wrong topic nvm.

TD#9

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