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senorpepr
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#101 Postby senorpepr » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:36 pm

x-y-no wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I heard those kind of planes or something like them are flying from a America alway across the global to fight the war in Iraq. Why can't we have one of those do recon?


Hmm ... don't think I'd want to be the pilot who had to fly a B2 through the eyewall of a hurricane ... :eek:


Ha... no doubt! A B2 can't even go through a little rainshower without problems.

Most of the longer range aircraft that the military uses to fly are no where strong enough to fly through a tropical cyclone. The WC-130 is a powerhouse aircraft that can take the abuse, but in exchange, it can only go so far.
Last edited by senorpepr on Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#102 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:38 pm

Normandy wrote:Eh wrong topic nvm.


I agree with ya....i had made a post on that...but, I figured I would get bashed to pieces....the message I got out of the discussion is that it will move W or WNW through 5 days...thats very near the islands...
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#103 Postby senorpepr » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:39 pm

mvtrucking wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
jax wrote::chopper:
when will recon go?


Not for a while... 09L is still WAY out there. Recon can't make a flight at this distance.


Don't they fly C-130 type aircraft? I caught a hop from McCord AF base in Tacoma,Wa to Dyess AF base outside of Abilene,Tx (I want to guess 2000 miles one way) when I was in the Army.


Yes, they do fly the WC-130. However, unlike a straight flight that you speak of, recon makes several passes through the storm and then returns back home. Matter of fact, the flight pattern through the storm would take just as much fuel as it would to fly to the storm in the first place.

In a situation like this, recon would probably only get one pass through the storm and then have to land in Cape Verde or Western Africa. Then... there's the whole fight of trying to get fuel from the locals at a much higher than normal price.
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#104 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:41 pm

I dont get it. Why dont the NOAA G4 jets just fly straight into hurricanes? Why only those C130's?

<RICKY>
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#105 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2005 4:03 pm

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS ESTIMATED BY STLT IMAGERY
AT 12.7N...34.5W AT 5 PM...MOVING WNW AT 10 KNOTS...WITH THIS
GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...GLOBAL MODELS TURN THIS INTENSIFYING
SYSTEM MORE NW AND LIFT IT NORTH OF 20N BEFORE REACHING THE
CARIBBEAN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS EVOLVE
OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE WRITING OFF FOR THE REGION.


The above from the AFD in San Juan:Still we have to watch it from the islands just in case the pattern changes to make it move more closer to the islands.
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#106 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 04, 2005 4:08 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:I dont get it. Why dont the NOAA G4 jets just fly straight into hurricanes? Why only those C130's?

<RICKY>


The G4s are for the over-the-hurricane recon and they don't fly in because they cost too much (and they are NOAA's - NOAA cares more about them than the Air Force's C-130's :D )
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#107 Postby djtil » Thu Aug 04, 2005 4:17 pm

irene the fish.


no, not another disney film.
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#108 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 04, 2005 4:18 pm

djtil wrote:irene the fish.


no, not another disney film.


lol why not. Disney films are fun.

<RICKY>
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#109 Postby vacanechaser » Thu Aug 04, 2005 4:25 pm

WindRunner wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:I dont get it. Why dont the NOAA G4 jets just fly straight into hurricanes? Why only those C130's?

<RICKY>


The G4s are for the over-the-hurricane recon and they don't fly in because they cost too much (and they are NOAA's - NOAA cares more about them than the Air Force's C-130's :D )


from what i understand at the hurricane conference 2 years ago or last year, cant remember :roll: , bob sheets said they dont fly into them because they were affraid that the combination of the wind and driving rain may stall the engines.. he said that during a speech during one of the sessions. not sure if that was meant to be smart, but mark and i sure took it as a real shot at those guys... this all comes from talk about stopping the air force from flying into the storms.. that was discussed a while back.. who knows...


Jesse V. Bass III
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#110 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 4:32 pm

vacanechaser wrote:
WindRunner wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:I dont get it. Why dont the NOAA G4 jets just fly straight into hurricanes? Why only those C130's?

<RICKY>


The G4s are for the over-the-hurricane recon and they don't fly in because they cost too much (and they are NOAA's - NOAA cares more about them than the Air Force's C-130's :D )


from what i understand at the hurricane conference 2 years ago or last year, cant remember :roll: , bob sheets said they dont fly into them because they were affraid that the combination of the wind and driving rain may stall the engines.. he said that during a speech during one of the sessions. not sure if that was meant to be smart, but mark and i sure took it as a real shot at those guys... this all comes from talk about stopping the air force from flying into the storms.. that was discussed a while back.. who knows...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yea, they had the same problem with the P2V Neptunes, water would cool the temp inside the engine, then the engine would shutoff, then the plane would fall like a stone, and... i think you could picture what would happen afterwords..., luckily I dont think that happend to any of them...
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#111 Postby Praxus » Thu Aug 04, 2005 4:39 pm

Interestingly, if you follow the current 5 day track and maintain the same
direction a few more days , it puts it right up Chesapeake bay.

Now that would be interesting...cat 4 storm heading right up the bay to washington... but I guess it'd downgraded to a cat 2 by the time it hits the white house :P
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#112 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 04, 2005 4:48 pm

Praxus wrote:Interestingly, if you follow the current 5 day track and maintain the same
direction a few more days , it puts it right up Chesapeake bay.

Now that would be interesting...cat 4 storm heading right up the bay to washington... but I guess it'd downgraded to a cat 2 by the time it hits the white house :P


:grr: NO! Please no! You want to talk about a Bay of Bengal type magnification of storm surge, they'd be 80 feet under in Baltimore's Inner Harbor and probably still get a 8 foot surge in downtown DC on the Tidal Potomac, living 45 miles WSW of DC, I'd like to see something else on the news before October ends.
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#113 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 04, 2005 5:02 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
vacanechaser wrote:
WindRunner wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:I dont get it. Why dont the NOAA G4 jets just fly straight into hurricanes? Why only those C130's?

<RICKY>


The G4s are for the over-the-hurricane recon and they don't fly in because they cost too much (and they are NOAA's - NOAA cares more about them than the Air Force's C-130's :D )


from what i understand at the hurricane conference 2 years ago or last year, cant remember :roll: , bob sheets said they dont fly into them because they were affraid that the combination of the wind and driving rain may stall the engines.. he said that during a speech during one of the sessions. not sure if that was meant to be smart, but mark and i sure took it as a real shot at those guys... this all comes from talk about stopping the air force from flying into the storms.. that was discussed a while back.. who knows...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yea, they had the same problem with the P2V Neptunes, water would cool the temp inside the engine, then the engine would shutoff, then the plane would fall like a stone, and... i think you could picture what would happen afterwords..., luckily I dont think that happend to any of them...


A P2V was lost with all hands in Hurricane Janet in 1955

http://www.aewa.org/Library/vw4/vw4.html

Not familiar with the details.
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#114 Postby seaswing » Thu Aug 04, 2005 5:03 pm

Does this one remind anyone of Frances so far?
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#115 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Thu Aug 04, 2005 5:03 pm

storms in NC wrote:
floridahurricaneguy wrote:Well if its NC and happens to be a saturday or sunday then I am going to North Carolina! Grandparents live on the sound there. Hurricane Chasing!

Matt


Sorry but I don't think it will be here that fast.Oh and where are they at?


woops.

Didnt mean this saturday or sunday. They live in edenton.

Matt
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#116 Postby wx247 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 5:18 pm

Pssst... I think it is wobbling southwest! :A:













(just kidding by the way)
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#117 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 04, 2005 5:41 pm

The depression is becoming better oreganized. A cdo has formed right over the LLC/center. Banding is also improving...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html
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#118 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 04, 2005 5:56 pm

12Z global model roundup... hopelessly late due to my travelling today, but posted here for continuity purposes nonetheless...comparisions are between 12Z and 00Z runs through 120 h...

GFS...*very* slightly left of previous track and even then only discernible near the end of the period...across 20 N at 51 W or so at 120 h...track much further left in extended forecast

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Canadian...continues trend of shifting left...72 h position 2-3° south of 84h position from 00Z run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=072hr

UKMET... slower in short to mid term... across 20 N before 120 h near 47 W

http://www.metoffice.com/sec2/sec2cyclo ... wtnt80.txt

Note that UKMET initialized position was about 2° further east and 1° further north than NHC models
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#119 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 6:00 pm

Interesting 18Z GFS. Drives Irene into Cape Hatteras August 16th, Jose into the eastern Caribbean August 14th then Jose in the SE Gulf of Mexico August 18th with Katrina east of the Bahamas and Lee approaching the Bahamas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384m.gif
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#120 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 04, 2005 6:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:Interesting 18Z GFS. Drives Irene into Cape Hatteras August 16th, Jose into the eastern Caribbean August 14th then Jose in the SE Gulf of Mexico August 18th with Katrina east of the Bahamas and Lee approaching the Bahamas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384m.gif


I want my mommy!!! :eek:
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