Dr Grays August Update=20/10/6

[WeatherEmperor]

I can see it now, Hurricane Delta headed for the Mississippi Delta

Now that would be one for the ages.

<RICKY>

[Hurricaneman]

I can see it now, Hurricane Delta headed for the Mississippi Delta

Now that would be one for the ages.

<RICKY>

It sure would

[Steve]

Like abajan and swimdude said, CSU underforecasts and tends to be conservative. There's a lot of history to back that up. It's one of the two biggest stories about the update. The other is the record intensity level going back nearly 150 years. 235, if it verifies, trumps all.

FWIW, my insurance with Lexington was going up about $1000. I switched underwriters for only a $300 bump.

Steve

[Frank2]

Re: x-y-no's post

Well, blame CNN for what I incorrectly heard - the NWS Director's "95%" comment was edited in such a way to make it sound like they were giving a "95% confidence rate" to their forecast.

Incidentially, I noticed other media outlets using this same bit of video - so I'm sure that many are just as confused or misinformed.

Unfortunately, a percentage comment like that is just what the media loves to have - something that can be twisted to make it sound like something else. I'm sure the Director meant what he said, but, the wording is something that many in public positions like to avoid for the above reason, and especially because the public has a long memory when it comes to someone giving an absolute, percentage-wise opinion on what to expect - especially if it doesn't turn out that way.

And, in reference to claiming work experience - yes - I lived it.

Frank

[Betrock]

A question: I read thru the abstract and would like to know which region is the west coast of Florida in?

The percentages say xx% for East Coast including Florida Peninsula - does that include the west coast of the peninsula?

The other percentages say xx% for Gulf Coast - but specify the panhandle around to Texas.

I would like to know what is the non-panhandle Gulf coast of Florida considered to be.

Also precisely where does the peninsula stop and the panhandle begin?

Thanks,
Betrock

[cycloneye]

I know that the majority of the members haved seen the Dr Gray August report but bumping for those few who haved not seen it yet.

[jdray]

A question: I read thru the abstract and would like to know which region is the west coast of Florida in?

The percentages say xx% for East Coast including Florida Peninsula - does that include the west coast of the peninsula?

The other percentages say xx% for Gulf Coast - but specify the panhandle around to Texas.

I would like to know what is the non-panhandle Gulf coast of Florida considered to be.

Also precisely where does the peninsula stop and the panhandle begin?

Thanks,
Betrock

Panhandle stops at the big bend area, (around St. Marks)

[cycloneye]

I am just wondering what CSU thinks about Storm2k digging up this data without it being officially released as of yet. I know it's on their server, but it is not on their web page- at least not that I can see. It is the equivalent of leaking information in my opinion. I would just be careful about doing that since no one at CSU has issued a press release or the like saying that Dr. Gray has indeed raised his forecast numbers.

Just playing it safe here in bringing this up- wouldn't want someone sending a cease and desist order to S2k....with a "Sincerely, Dr. William Gray" on it....

Mike the report now is at the Colorado site and no changes at all. They post it with a couple days in advance at their alternate site.

[P.K.]

The latest TSR update is out 22/11/7.

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATLForecastAug2005.pdf

[cycloneye]

The latest TSR update is out 22/11/7.

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATLForecastAug2005.pdf

Thanks for posting it P.K and this one joins the consensus of all the forecasters about having an hyperactive season.

[Betrock]

A question: I read thru the abstract and would like to know which region is the west coast of Florida in?

The percentages say xx% for East Coast including Florida Peninsula - does that include the west coast of the peninsula?

The other percentages say xx% for Gulf Coast - but specify the panhandle around to Texas.

I would like to know what is the non-panhandle Gulf coast of Florida considered to be.

Also precisely where does the peninsula stop and the panhandle begin?

Thanks,
Betrock

Panhandle stops at the big bend area, (around St. Marks)

Thanks. So where is the non-panhandle Gulf coast of Florida considered to be - part of the East Coast?!?

Thanks,
Betrock

[abajan]

I can see it now, Hurricane Delta headed for the Mississippi Delta

Let's hope that wasn't prophetic!

[superfly]

I can see it now, Hurricane Delta headed for the Mississippi Delta

Let's hope that wasn't prophetic!

A hurricane heading towards the northern Gulf wouldn't do jack squat with the SSTs in that area this time of year.

[Ivanhater]

I can see it now, Hurricane Delta headed for the Mississippi Delta

Let's hope that wasn't prophetic!

A hurricane heading towards the northern Gulf wouldn't do jack squat with the SSTs in that area this time of year.

if its a hurricane, it will do more than jack squat [/b]

[superfly]

I can see it now, Hurricane Delta headed for the Mississippi Delta

Let's hope that wasn't prophetic!

A hurricane heading towards the northern Gulf wouldn't do jack squat with the SSTs in that area this time of year.

if its a hurricane, it will do more than jack squat [/b]

I said a hurricane heading towards the Northern Gulf. Once gets to around 25N, the SSTs in the area won't be able to maintain it unless it's moving at extraordinary speeds.