TD#9

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

fl/gulf/se all in the same sentence???

Oh boy... 2005 COULD BE A Hurricane H--- Repeat.

I hope EVERYONE's Hurricane Kits are ready
If not, get them ready NOW!

[BensonTCwatcher]

they are talking about it on nhcradio now, dt will be on later and tell why he thinks it will be a possible southeast/fl/gulf threat

There is sound reasoning for it I think. I have seen a lot of "fish" comments that are starting to smell ( pun intended) worse with each tick westward

[jasons2k]

Just like Avila said in the 5pm discussion, tonights model runs should be more insightful so we can see what atmospheric conditions will impact this subtropical ridge.

<RICKY>

I don't see how another model run 6 hours from now will be much more insightful than the present runs. There won't be any additional data out there in the Atlantic. At least, not a significant difference in the data. The GFS has been making wild swings beyond 5 days. It probably won't have a clue for 3-5 more days, if then. The 12Z European is out and has TD 9/Irene heading north around 50W. 12z Canadian is similar. NOGAPS doesn't see anything there. The GFDL has been consistent in driving TD9/Irene out to sea to the north, but it's based partly on the GFS, so we may see a change there with time.

Bottom line, we won't really be too sure where this storm is going for another 4-5 days or more.

wxman - thank you! I have been preaching this all day and finally I have a pro met. that backs me up.

[storms in NC]

they are talking about it on nhcradio now, dt will be on later and tell why he thinks it will be a possible southeast/fl/gulf threat

There is sound reasoning for it I think. I have seen a lot of "fish" comments that are starting to smell ( pun intended) worse with each tick westward

Hey I am just south of you and I don't think this is going to be a fish. I feel it will come and see us here

[hicksta]

Still so far out.. Models have a hard time keeping a track right on course or near course with a weak system like this. Once it gains strength we should be able to get a better point of her direction.

[hicksta]

They used to be nicely togther...

[Josephine96]

I bet you the Wal Mart hurricane guru is gonna be busy this next week to week and a half lol..

During Cindy and Dennis all I heard was.. "Is this thing coming to us?" lol

Definitely a lot of anxiety remains here..

[elysium]

What is probably as important as the Bermuda high itself, is whether or not the ridge will be reinforced from the west by the time 95L nears 20N. The GFS is beginning to show high pressure over the south central states building in from west to east, while the bermuda high will be filling back in to the west in the wake of Harvey. The slow forward movement of 95L makes any appreciably significant northward movement by 95L due to its interaction with this quickly evacuating trough strengthened slightly by Harvey, highly suspect and a likely model error; but there is some chance of this occurence initializing as indicated if 95L were to increase its forward momentum. Even then, however, the northward movement is at best temporary, and we would still be looking toward the strength of the ridge for guidance.

As far as any consideration that 95L will be a fish, well, not likely. The ridge will almost certainly steer 95L toward the east coast at least close enough to remove that idea completely, even if 95L skirts. We should see evacuations, etc. If 95L is not influenced by the trough and moves through 50W 60W on a general westward heading, it's a safe bet that the name Irene will be retired this year.

If 95L begins to accelerate, and head N.W. very, very soon, this system would then be nothing more than a fish; a dubious forecast.

[jasons2k]

What is probably as important as the Bermuda high itself, is whether or not the ridge will be reinforced from the west by the time 95L nears 20N. The GFS is beginning to show high pressure over the south central states building in from west to east, while the bermuda high will be filling back in to the west in the wake of Harvey. The slow forward movement of 95L makes any appreciably significant northward movement by 95L due to its interaction with this quickly evacuating trough strengthened slightly by Harvey, highly suspect and a likely model error; but there is some chance of this occurence initializing as indicated if 95L were to increase its forward momentum. Even then, however, the northward movement is at best temporary, and we would still be looking toward the strength of the ridge for guidance.

As far as any consideration that 95L will be a fish, well, not likely. The ridge will almost certainly steer 95L toward the east coast at least close enough to remove that idea completely, even if 95L skirts. We should see evacuations, etc. If 95L is not influenced by the trough and moves through 50W 60W on a general westward heading, it's a safe bet that the name Irene will be retired this year.

If 95L begins to accelerate, and head N.W. very, very soon, this system would then be nothing more than a fish; a dubious forecast.

Thank you for that analysis, I would agree the GFS is prob. model error as it has been underestimating the heat/ridge in the east for the last couple of weeks. I think you are right "on track".

[BensonTCwatcher]

they are talking about it on nhcradio now, dt will be on later and tell why he thinks it will be a possible southeast/fl/gulf threat

There is sound reasoning for it I think. I have seen a lot of "fish" comments that are starting to smell ( pun intended) worse with each tick westward

Hey I am just south of you and I don't think this is going to be a fish. I feel it will come and see us here

I hope neither you or I see it. I used to live at the coast (until Fran).. The track is eerily similair to Fran. I am not an expert, but I never have seen storm that started out this large speed west. That's what caused me to think it might hang westward yesterday. I'll hope for re-curve

BTW ( off topic) I jumped out of an airplane there a few years back

[DESTRUCTION5]

NHC way off this time(11 PM)? Totally different thinking on this board..

[clfenwi]

Global model roundup...comparisions to 12Z models through 144 h...

GFS... less aggressive in development... loses 1012 low during 24-54 h period... faster after 48h...across 20° N between 108-114 h IVO 57.5° W... brief period of due west movement along 20 N...144 h frame suggests wnw/nw course... system becomes ill defined in extended forecast on w westward course...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_144m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

UKMET...left-ward trend continues...unsurprising given how 12Z initialization was too far north...across 20° N near 51° W at 108 h...NW/NNW course at 144 h...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

CAN...slightly faster...across 20° N near 48L W...left of prev 00Z forecast...NW/WNW course after...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So all that hype turned out to be nothing...

It appears it has a better chance of fellowing in its foot steps.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[baygirl_1]

Well... I am certainly hoping TD 9 will turn more northward and pay a little visit to your friend and mine: SAL. Otherwise it sounds possible she's gonna get nasty and may pay a visit to US(A). "GO SEE SAL!! GO SEE SAL!!"
Once again, we watch... we wait...

[wxmann_91]

OMG I'm out for 30 minutes and everybody's saying that Irene is no more.

I should stop not keeping tabs with Storm2k every single minute.

[clfenwi]

UKMET text guidance 00Z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 35.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 05.08.2005 13.7N 35.0W WEAK
12UTC 05.08.2005 13.1N 36.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.08.2005 14.5N 38.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2005 15.4N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2005 16.3N 42.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2005 17.1N 44.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.08.2005 18.1N 46.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.08.2005 18.9N 48.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.08.2005 19.6N 49.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.08.2005 20.5N 51.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.08.2005 21.4N 52.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.08.2005 22.6N 53.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2005 23.7N 54.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[Anonymous]

So all that hype turned out to be nothing...

It appears it has a better chance of fellowing in its foot steps.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Here we go again. Systems fluctuate. It is not dead!!! LOL Infact, I still think this will end up being a major hurricane down the road.

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

what are you talking about regarding the system being dead? TD 6 never had a well-defined circ. This one has that. Its not going to dissipate, its just going to develop slowly, as it is doing. Cannot over-react to each sat frame or model run

[Sanibel]

It makes perfect sense that early waves being enhanced by 2005 conditions would struggle out in the early CV belt. In any other year we would be in a lull...

[Thunder44]

First of all I believe it is already a 40mph to 45mph TS, even though satellite estimates show otherwise. It developed last night to a TD and looking at this all day yesterday, it's hard to believe that it didn't develop more.

Second it's getting a little better organized the past few hours. Looking at IR-2 imagery, the center appears to be on the NW of edge of the convection. Perhaps it's partly exposed now, but not completely. Dvorak numbers are up to 1.5/1.5, early this morning. so that indicates an increase in organization.

Third, I don't see some easterly shear being a significant impedement. It's the shear that comes from direction it's going that is more significant. I think this will be a hurricane by Sunday.