Northern GOM

[jasons2k]

I didn't realize this but Alicia was the first storm with landfall probabilties

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archiv ... elim03.gif

[Galvestongirl]

is there anyway to enlarge this and it be readable.....

[jasons2k]

is there anyway to enlarge this and it be readable.....

hmm, maybe you need to use a different setting on IE or something, but it's full screen for me.

[otowntiger]

is there anyway to enlarge this and it be readable.....

I had the same problem Alicia was an interesting storm. She seemed to pop up out of nowhere. I remember ole' Flip Spiceland the Met at the time for CNN giving us all the low down. She had a textbook appearance, although rather small. She was a very intense looking blob in the middle of the gulf before they had posted any advisories or officially dubbed her. The original thoughts were that she'd move north into La. where I was in high school at the time. There apparently is now some discussion of her not quite being a cat 3 when she hit Galveston. I do remember seeing footage of all the broken glass in several sky scrapers in downtown Houston.

[Stormcenter]

More than usual this morning in the GOM.

[GalvestonDuck]

is there anyway to enlarge this and it be readable.....

Roll your mouse over the text image and then leave it there for a second. There should be a small gray box with four arrows that appears down on the right-hand corner of the image. Click that to enlarge the image.

Try that next chance you get. In the meantime, I'll do this so everyone can read it.

[img]ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1983/alicia/prelim01.gif[/img]

[img]ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1983/alicia/prelim02.gif[/img]

[jasons2k]

Thanks GalvestonDuck!

[Steve]

Gulf looks semi interesting today. Some of the former 93L is around the Yucatan Channel; a complex is moving north from the Bay of Campeche (probably die out later) and some troughiness is still around the northern Gulf. It doesn't all amount to much, but hey, it's something.

Steve

[jasons2k]

Gulf looks semi interesting today. Some of the former 93L is around the Yucatan Channel; a complex is moving north from the Bay of Campeche (probably die out later) and some troughiness is still around the northern Gulf. It doesn't all amount to much, but hey, it's something.

Steve

Yeah, I agree with you steve, actually the setup in the GOM today is more what I expected it to look like a week ago (from about 10 days ago), it'll be interesting to see if something finally happens.

[Frank P]

Yeah, home brew is always interesting when around... radar loop continues to display the broad area of low, perhaps at the mid levels, with half over land and the other half over the GOM... hard to pinpoint the center but best guess off radar would be just off the coast south of the AL/FL line... we've gotten pummeled with rain every day for the past several days on the MS coast, today I expect the same.. large clusters of thunderstorms embedded within the broad low and remaining intact . one cluster approaching the Hattiesburg area, heading toward the coast....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mob_N0Z_lp.html

[robjay]

sure you didn't just type that up in Word and run it thru a copier 50X to make it look official??

[Stormcenter]

South of the MS/AL border looks interesting this morning.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[PTrackerLA]

I'd say the gulf looks more interesting this morning than it has for the past week. We actually have a decent blob of convection south of Mobile with hints of rotation. It also has good low level inflow from the south and west as evidenced by the low clouds streaming into the convection. If this were to stick around for another day we might just have something but of course a big limiting factor is the close proximity to land. Regardless the central gulf coast is in for more heavy rains today. I've been getting some good rains at my house this week and we haven't had to water at all! It's about dang time!

[HouTXmetro]

This same set up has persisted in excess of a weeks time. No development, what gives? Again, unless the area moves south (Which I highly doubt) I can't see any development.

[Stormcenter]

Something has to form from this mess.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[TS Zack]

Bertha had a non-tropical origin, forming from the same non-tropical surface trough of low pressure that spawned Tropical Storm Cristobal in the western North Atlantic Ocean. This trough extended from the north central Gulf of Mexico across Florida into the Atlantic on 1 August and moved little for the next two days. A broad low pressure area was first noted on 3 August. Satellite, surface, and radar observations indicated the low became better organized just east of the mouth of the Mississippi River on 4 August, and the system developed into Tropical Depression Two around 1800 UTC

Anyone remember Bertha in 2002. Something very similar to this synoptic set-up. Also, at the exact same time.

It has a chance if its low level circulation can get a little further away from land.

[jasons2k]

[Derecho]

I remember actually going through and figuring this out on posts years ago but I believe I came up with tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of Mexico, without the involvement of a tropical wave, an average of once every ten years.

So nobody should be surprised by its failure to happen.

And even if you consider all tropical cyclone formations of any kind (first advisory actually inside the GOM) the number per year was shockingly low; I think about once every two years on average, but I'd have to go back and check.

[Stormcenter]

I remember actually going through and figuring this out on posts years ago but I believe I came up with tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of Mexico, without the involvement of a tropical wave, an average of once every ten years.

So nobody should be surprised by its failure to happen.

And even if you consider all tropical cyclone formations of any kind (first advisory actually inside the GOM) the number per year was shockingly low; I think about once every two years on average, but I'd have to go back and check.

As rare (GOM development)as it may be it can and has happened.

[Kennethb]

This trough has been stalled for almost two weeks. The precip on land going east to west, and over the GOM west to east. Might take a low to develop and clean up this stagnant pattern.

In Baton Rouge today, we nice cumulus out of the northeast with a stead movement, dryer air, and blue skies, reminicant of a tropical system to our east.