09L.NONAME Brief Personal Discussion

[DoctorHurricane2003]

S2K Disclaimer: The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Personal Disclaimer: Additionally, all official products can be found at the National Hurricane Center's Website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

04.08.2005 0854 PM CDT

This discussion will be brief. No forecast graphic will be provided until 09L reaches 40W longitude, as the current graphic utility I use does not support prior to that. Additionally, there will be outages in my daily discussions on 09L and other systems around August 15/16 and from August 23 to an unspecified date. The first set of dates can change without notice.

09L gathered enough organization earlier today to be classified as a tropical depression, and is currently moving west at a moderate clip with 25 KT winds. For the future, expect a slow, steady strengthening until about 72 Hours, when strengthening may be able to happen a little faster as 09L enters a more favorable environment. Right now, with the path forecast, I am expecting a Frances type scenario, placing 09L east or ENE of the islands in 5 days. Models are showing a northward recurvature scenario as a trough approaches, but like with Frances, this did not happen. Instead, a northwestward bend in the track, followed by a more WNW and westerly course is expected. I am not sure how close to the NE Caribbean this will come, and all interests in the NE Caribbean should monitor the progress of 09L via the NHC and/or your local weather office.

120 HR INTENSITY FORECAST:
INITIAL: 25 KT
12 HR: 30 KT
24 HR: 40 KT
36 HR: 45 KT
48 HR: 55 KT
72 HR: 65 KT
96 HR: 80 KT
120 HR: 95 KT

*END

[JTD]

Great forecast as always

[Brent]

Great forecast...

[Sanibel]

Looks like SAL is getting it...

[DoctorHurricane2003]

yeah that's one reason I didn't intensify it to a category 54 hurricane in 2 hours like greatone probably did. But seriously, it does look like the SAL is abating somewhat and especially in the 72 HR + range it will be favorable for intensification.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like SAL is getting it...

thats not good, that will cause it to develop slower causing a more westward motion