My Really Amateur Forecast for TD 9

[wxmann_91]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 DISCUSSION 2
8:00 PM PDT AUG 4 2005 (3 Z AUG 5 2005)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOR OFFICIAL FORECASTS...PLEASE REFER TO THE NHC. THIS IS AN INDEPENDENT PRODUCT.

PLEASE REMEMBER...HURRICANES CAN BE VERY UNPREDICTABLE AND CAN MAKE SUDDEN CHANGES AND/OR SHIFTS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GOOD EVENING TO ALL WHO ARE READING THIS DISCUSSION. NOW LET'S GET TO BUSINESS WITH TD 9/FUTURE IRENE, SHALL WE?

THE DEPRESSION IS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED RIGHT NOW...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LARGE...SO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY DESPITE THE LOW SHEAR AND HIGH SST'S. AS A RESULT...I HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE INTENSITY...BUT THIS SYSTEM STILL COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN FIVE DAYS.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT PROBLAMATIC. TD 9 IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...BUT TS HARVEY HAS ALREADY LEFT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS BUILD BACK THE RIDGE IN TIME SO THAT TD 9/IRENE DOES NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO RECURVE.

HOWEVER...SHOULD HARVEY MOVE OUT SLOWER...OR THE RIDGE BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED...THE TRACK WOULD HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED NORTHWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOULD THE RIDGE BUILD BACK QUICKER AND STRONGER...THEN THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO COULD BE THREATENED.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...THE RECORD FOR AN "I" STORM IS AUGUST 20...AND THAT RECORD COULD BE BROKEN TOMORROW.

FORECASTER TANG


HOUR POSITION INTENSITY
-------------------------------------------
CURRENT 13.0N 35.2W 25 KT
12 HR 13.4N 36.8W 30 KT
24 HR 13.9N 38.3W 40 KT
36 HR 14.5N 40.0W 45 KT
48 HR 15.2N 41.6W 50 KT
72 HR 16.6N 45.1W 65 KT
96 HR 18.1N 49.9W 75 KT
120 HR 19.4N 56.1W 85 KT

Track:



(Cone of uncertainty in red)

This is my second advisory, I didn't post the first one I made. I've made some stabs before during Emily and Franklin, and though I did fairly well on Emily, I bombed on Franklin.

EDIT: Sorry for the all caps, that's how I do my advisories. If you don't like it then please tell me.

Comments welcomed and encouraged!

[jasons2k]

Always love to see new ones...

I'd say pretty darn good for the first time posting, I know that takes guts! Thanks for the post!

[JTD]

Great Post!! Well done

[Ivanhater]

awesome job, 1 suggestion though, i know your west coast time, might be a good idea to get the forecast out earlier so more people can see it, its kind of late

[wxmann_91]

Thanks for all the positive comments guys!

The problem is that I pretty much base my forecasts on the NHC's forecast, so if anything, I can only post my forecasts later than the NHC's. I'll try to post it as early as possible next time, though it takes me half an hour just to create these forecasts (gotta fiddle around Google Earth to get the lat lons). So unfortunately my amateur forecasts can only come at least 30 minutes after the time I put on the top.

I'll write the next discussion at around 8-9 AM tomorrow morning, though the morning ones will come later because I sleep in each day, and who knows what might happen tomorrow morning to TD 9?

[Swimdude]

VERY nice! From what I recall, you're my younger brother's age. I'm amazed at your knowledge and how well you collected the information... I heard on the radio this morning... "We should do things because they make US proud; not because other will compliment you. However, compliments are always nice."

And the radio station told us to compliment other today.

So that's what i'm doing. Awesome job; really.

[thefixed]

It does take major guts to put out a discussion of your own. And for that I admire you. On the information side of things it appears as if you could do very well at this so keep the forecasts coming and I'll be looking out for them.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Nice forecast. Looks very possible.

[NCHurricane]

Very nice. :thumbsup:

Nice track forecast graphic as well.

Keep 'em coming!

[WindRunner]

Not a bad track, but personally I'd say further north, but not much. I keep seeing the Google-based graphics, I guess I'll have to go mess around with them sometime. Nice discussion, though.