Tell me..

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DESTRUCTION5
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Tell me..

#1 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 05, 2005 7:25 am

How the GFS can go from 2 strong storms in the Atlantic to 0 this morning all while making a monster ridge from Tennesse to the AZores? LOL
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#2 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 05, 2005 7:37 am

Just another day for the GFS...
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Re: Tell me..

#3 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 05, 2005 7:42 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:How the GFS can go from 2 strong storms in the Atlantic to 0 this morning all while making a monster ridge from Tennesse to the AZores? LOL


Yeah ... I just now got online, first thing I do is check the 6Z run ... and it's just completely different from any prior run. Dissipates TD9 quickly and takes the remnant straight north into a strong ridge.

I think we can toss this run straight into the trash bin. :roll:

Jan
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Steve H.
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#4 Postby Steve H. » Fri Aug 05, 2005 7:56 am

I agree x-y-no, bad, bad run. Though 95L is heading NW and looking skimpy. Stewart is on the mark this morning though, and as unusual as it sounds, a track like the GFDL is probably close to the truth and strength. When SSTs are warmer underneath it will strengthen....but does it go left or right? Time will tell.
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#5 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:04 am

Steve H. wrote:I agree x-y-no, bad, bad run. Though 95L is heading NW and looking skimpy. Stewart is on the mark this morning though, and as unusual as it sounds, a track like the GFDL is probably close to the truth and strength. When SSTs are warmer underneath it will strengthen....but does it go left or right? Time will tell.


I'm still leaning towards a recurve at sea, especially since the track is looking a little more northerly than seemed likely yesterday, but it's not a closed case by any means.
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#6 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:07 am

Yes, I agree - any system that is already at or above 15N that far east of the islands, will more likely than not be a recurving system.

Don't mean to sound like a broken record (or CD, I guess), but, I believe Dennis and Emily fooled many (in and outside of the business) in believing that this season is a carbon-copy (or scanned copy, I guess), of last year's season - it isn't.

Frank
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#7 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:26 am

This should just go to show that the GFS is not good for looking at run to run consitancy...heck, all of the globals are struggling with the ridge...
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#8 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:39 am

Yes, this season's strong-again, weak-again ridge seems to be much more difficult to forecast than last.

Frank
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Re: Tell me..

#9 Postby jax » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:50 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:How the GFS can go from 2 strong storms in the Atlantic to 0 this morning all while making a monster ridge from Tennesse to the AZores? LOL


very simple.... New Data...
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#10 Postby EDR1222 » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:59 am

Frank2 wrote:Yes, this season's strong-again, weak-again ridge seems to be much more difficult to forecast than last.

Frank


Good point. The High Pressure systems last year seemed to stay in just about the same place most of the summer.
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