Extratropical Irene Advisories

[cycloneye]

051434
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
1500Z FRI AUG 05 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 37.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 37.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 36.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.5N 39.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 41.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 43.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.5N 45.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 26.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 30.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 37.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA


Well No hurricane Irene and maybe no storm too.And track is well right out to sea.

[cycloneye]

555
WTNT44 KNHC 051437
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

HOW LITTLE WE KNOW ABOUT THE GENESIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. SATELLITE
IMAGES DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY SHOWED A DISTINCT DISTURBANCE IN THE
DEEP TROPICS WITH ALL KNOWN FACTORS APPARENTLY FAVORABLE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. SURPRISINGLY THIS
MORNING...VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED. UNEXPECTEDLY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVED
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS AND LOST MOST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL MAINTAINS A LARGE AND
VIGOROUS ENVELOPE WITH AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. IT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS WERE DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT WESTWARD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...IN THE LATEST 6Z GFS RUN...THERE IS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL...LIKE THE GFS...ALSO CHANGED ITS TUNE AT 6Z
AND NOW EVEN SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS.

GIVEN THESE DRASTIC CHANGES SEEN IN GFS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO
MAKES A DRASTIC CHANGE IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS
NOW KEPT AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A MODEST DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WHEN THE CYCLONE
REACHES WARMER WATERS...IF IT SURVIVES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 16.4N 37.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.5N 39.0W 25 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 41.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 43.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 20.5N 45.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 48.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 26.5N 52.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 30.0N 55.0W 35 KT



Great discussion by Avila.

[cycloneye]

[EDR1222]

Wow, definately proves how challenging forecasting these storms can be!

[x-y-no]

HOW LITTLE WE KNOW ABOUT THE GENESIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES.

No kidding.

SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY SHOWED A DISTINCT DISTURBANCE IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH ALL KNOWN FACTORS APPARENTLY FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. SURPRISINGLY THIS MORNING...VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED. UNEXPECTEDLY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS AND LOST MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who found this motion unexpected. I still can't really see what steered the LLC so much to the north. I guess the ridging out there was weaker than it looked in the lower levels.

Jan

[Scott_inVA]

It's been a long time since TPC has crushed, killed, murdered and then fished a storm like this in one Advisory. Wow!

Clearly they are banking on ridge weakness/shear. I still remain unsold, but gotta admit after looking at the advisory and their reasoning, I need to go to 7-eleven and get a Big Gulp.

Scott

[Brent]

Next.

[x-y-no]

Next.

Well ... there's a pretty promising looking "next" already off th African coast ...

[Thunder44]

I think there's too much of a knee-jerk reaction by Avila here. He should of waited for the 12z guidance and look at what this storm does this afternoon, before so such a drastic change in track and intensity forecast. I only expect them to shift that a little further north. Very unusual behavior for TPC.

[WeatherEmperor]

yeah bring on the next one already.

<RICKY>

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Its' never over 'til its' over, and it is FAR from over yet.


Damn it they even admite they do not know exactly where the center is, I mean C'mon it is way to early to make this call.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[dwg71]

Its' never over 'til its' over, and it is FAR from over yet.


Damn it they even admite they do not know exactly where the center is, I mean C'mon it is way to early to make this call.


Hybridstorm_November2001

It might not be over, but the fat lady is getting ready to go on stage.

We might not even see an advisory at 10PM.

[deltadog03]

FAR from over...avilia...went awol this morning....just don't see how in the heck or why in the heck he would go very much EAST...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

One statement:


"Ill defined center"


It could reform ANYWHERE!


Hybridstorm_November2001

[x-y-no]

C'mon, folks! Avila did not say it is "over." He specifically keeps a TD strength system through 5 days, and he dicusses both the possibilities of dissipation and of later development.

[deltadog03]

B I N G O !!!!! I still wound't be suprised if something formed around that cluster of storms

[x-y-no]

One statement:


"Ill defined center"


It could reform ANYWHERE!


Hybridstorm_November2001

Where does it say "Ill defined center"?

The center couldn't be clearer just now. It's at about 16.4N 37.4W.

I frankly don't see much chance of a new center forming elsewhere. The better chance is that this center holds together long enough for new convection to fire up over it.

Jan

[dwg71]

B I N G O !!!!! I still wound't be suprised if something formed around that cluster of storms

You mean the quickly dissappating t-storms??

[img]www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html[/img]

I'll call it - time of death 10:24AM CST. We will miss you #9, you supplied us with 112,684 posts and we thank you for that.

[InimanaChoogamaga]

You mean the quickly dissappating t-storms??

[img]www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html[/img]

I'll call it - time of death 10:24AM CST. We will miss you #9, you supplied us with 112,684 posts and we thank you for that.

Make that 112,685.

Goodbye nine! We sure will miss you...

[feederband]

I'm not convinced....I don't think this the end of #9..Stay tuned....