TD#9

wxmann_91 · #261 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 10:50 am

If we could get some persistant convection in the area just south of the current LLC, isn't it possible for a new LLC to form and take over?

That would mean that the LLC would be over warmer waters and that it would be more likely to not be a fish.

#262 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 10:53 am

i got a suggestion....lets just watch this thing.....yeeeehawww...lol...ITS MOVING WEST currently...!!!!!!!

#263 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 10:53 am

well it certainly has not fallen apart, it still has a great shape and convection, anything can happen

RU4REAL · #264 Postby **RU4REAL** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 10:59 am

............I posted this on another thread and I'm sticking to it....

TD 9 is gonna live and become something to talk about as well as
showing us all that no matter how good we get, we still have alot to learn,
The East Coast is gonna be watching this one and preparing as well...stay tuned my friend.....

clfenwi · #265 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:02 am

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... 080500.png

model guidance from the 00Z run... the model forecasts aren't in as bad shape as the NHC forecast at t that time, especially if the system rolls back onto a west-northwest course...

for those curious, here is the graphic for the 06Z runs: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

#266 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:04 am

Here are a couple more pretty (and big) McIdas images of TD 9:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene10.gif

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene9.gif

#267 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:05 am

ivanhater wrote:well it certainly has not fallen apart, it still has a great shape and convection, anything can happen

Ok, so maybe it still has a great shape, anyway.... ;-)

BensonTCwatcher · #268 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:06 am

I have to laugh at myself here... Have you ever seen a NFL running back do that little stop-jump move on a defender and then just run right by with the ball? That's what the LLC looks like it did to the convection. I know it coudl just be a temporary wobble but westward she goes

#269 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:07 am

wxman57 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:well it certainly has not fallen apart, it still has a great shape and convection, anything can happen

Ok, so maybe it still has a great shape, anyway....

where do you get those nice images? does the site you get them from also have loops? fill me in!!!!

<RICKY>

#270 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:09 am

looking west to me

gkrangers · #271 Postby **gkrangers** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:16 am

Looks NW to me...?

#272 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:17 am

i think development is on hold, remember much worse looking waves developed down the road, and with the hold up in development, that means a more westward course....thats my story and im sticking to it...westward ho!

#273 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:18 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:well it certainly has not fallen apart, it still has a great shape and convection, anything can happen

Ok, so maybe it still has a great shape, anyway....

where do you get those nice images? does the site you get them from also have loops? fill me in!!!!

<RICKY>

I roll my own images here at the office using a program called McIdas that runs on my Sun Solaris workstation. I have a direct satellite data feed. Yes, I can make loops on the workstation, but it's a little hard to save them and put them online. If I save individual images I can easily make a loop using a program called GIF animator and then put them online. But I'm a little lazy (and busy).

#274 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:19 am

In that case never mind. Its just that I use the NOAA NESDIS satellite loops but that site most of the time has technical problems and I want a very reliable website with good loops.

<RICKY>

wxmann_91 · #275 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:20 am

I think this is moving WNW and that this will strengthen, though much slower than I originally thought.

#276 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:24 am

On my workstation, I measured a 6-hour motion of 299 deg. at 19.5 kts. (0945Z-1545Z).

Movement over the last 2 hous (1345Z-1545Z) was 290 deg at 20 kts.

Haulin' butt!

wxwatcher91 · #277 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:24 am

I'm not sure... you can even see on visible where the LLC is and the MLC is... unless the MLC which has the associated convection can develop a LLC then it is likely TD9 will fall apart

gkrangers · #278 Postby **gkrangers** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:26 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:I'm not sure... you can even see on visible where the LLC is and the MLC is... unless the MLC which has the associated convection can develop a LLC then it is likely TD9 will fall apart

Just like Franklin, who had no convection for days on end, fell apart.

jimvb · #279 Postby **jimvb** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:26 am

TD #9? Irene?! Don't count your storms before they hatch. Irene may be some other time, some other place. Look at the 11 am NHC reports. Here's a storm that was going to go west, become a big hurricane, and threaten the US. Now it's going fish and wimping out. I think the statement of the hour about TD #9 is the one from Forecaster Avila of the National Hurricane Center. He says:

How little we know about the genesis of tropical cyclones.

#280 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:27 am

wxman57 wrote:On my workstation, I measured a 6-hour motion of 299 deg. at 19.5 kts. (0945Z-1545Z).

Movement over the last 2 hous (1345Z-1545Z) was 290 deg at 20 kts.

Haulin' butt!

I know you got alot to do but do you have a directional chart for me, in regards to what all those 300deg, 295deg, 290deg, etc stuff means? By the way, what direction is 290 anyways?

<RICKY>

TD#9

How little we know

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