TD#9

[wxman57]

6hr movement (12Z-18Z) 290 deg. at 19 kts.

[floridahurricaneguy]

I am not giving up on it yet. I think it will end up suprising people in the islands then possibly florida. Wait and see right now.

Matt

[Air Force Met]

i agree derek...the West movement, if continued, would allow it to get stronger

Problem is it's not moving west...it's WNW...gaining latitude every minute.

[clfenwi]

Yeah, I happened to run across some of my earlier posts on the depression and invest and noticed how I started with the hedge 'we'll have to see how it does with the dry air enviroment' and then later I (somewhat inadvertently) dropped the hedge. Over-enthusiasm, I suppose.

Looking at the water vapor imagery (storm centered: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html and http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goese ... v.htmlwest Atlantic: , I don't know where it will find relief, if any.

Also, it is several hundred miles from enjoying the SSTs that it had as recently as last night: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/natl_sst_oper0.gif

I think that development, if any, is going to be minimal during the next 48-60 hours... GFDL may have had the right idea last night with how it turned the system north and then killed it off (latest run offeres a westerly course for six hours followed by a turn to the wnw and dissipation at 36 hours: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080517).

[RU4REAL]

???

What does that mean?

[Derek Ortt]

I never said it was moving west. It may do so in about 24 hours.

We likely wont see redevelopment of this system until it crossed 50-60W

[wxman57]

2 hr movement I get about 17 kts at 290 deg. The center isn't well-defined, though, so there is room for error.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I remember a storm called Fran in 1996 that fell apart (back into an open wave), and became a total mess, and then came back up two days later. Not saying it will happen with this system for sure, but it could. The point is I'll wait and see (say 24 - 48 hr) before I totally write it off.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yes, well I get jittery on the references to to Fran, since she left me homeless...but needless to say it was a storm I watched closely. It did all but fall apart so I agree with doig what the pros are doing, watching and waiting. 24-48 hours seems reasonable but unit it's dead, it's a player. Just check the GFS building the ridge back

[Thunder44]

151
WHXX01 KWBC 051826
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (AL092005) ON 20050805 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050805 1800 050806 0600 050806 1800 050807 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.6N 38.5W 17.3N 40.1W 17.8N 41.2W 18.2N 42.3W
BAMM 16.6N 38.5W 17.3N 40.4W 18.0N 42.1W 18.6N 43.6W
A98E 16.6N 38.5W 17.3N 42.3W 17.9N 45.0W 18.3N 46.9W
LBAR 16.6N 38.5W 17.6N 41.1W 18.8N 43.3W 19.8N 45.6W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050807 1800 050808 1800 050809 1800 050810 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 43.4W 20.1N 46.2W 22.1N 49.4W 24.6N 52.7W
BAMM 19.2N 45.0W 20.2N 47.9W 21.4N 51.0W 22.9N 54.8W
A98E 18.5N 48.3W 19.9N 50.4W 20.8N 52.9W 23.2N 55.3W
LBAR 21.1N 48.1W 23.8N 53.1W 25.7N 55.5W 28.3N 56.0W
SHIP 32KTS 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS
DSHP 32KTS 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 38.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 35.5W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 33.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z models have come out. Think of it what you will.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[BensonTCwatcher]

I'd love to see that animation of the model plots somebody posted last year of this system I gave it 20% to get pushed more W or WNW by the ridge and survive the dry air. 80% to get pulled north and die in cooler waters and dry air. I'll stick by it, but the LLC does not want to give up which is what worries me.

[Sanibel]

Horizontal shear or subsidence in SAL area.


Entire top half similar to open wave - but with LLC.

[Ivanhater]

couple of flare ups with the center, low is still intact and primed for development at the right time

[jrod]

As long as the low level swirl is there I think this one has a good chance of staying around. It also of course cant go too far north to the cooler waters. My guess on why it is on the verge of dying is all the dry sinking air in front of it that is associated with SAL. If it maintains that persistant low level swirl until about 45-50W then I think the chances are high of being a significant system. Theres so many ifs about this system and history has shown that systems on the verge of dissapating can comeback strong so I dont think this one can be written off just yet.

[Nimbus]

Must be near the diurnal max for convection, the convection is firing south of the LLC again.
As Derek mentioned earlier it may be a few hours or even a day before the mid level convection stacks back up over the low level center.
The earlier GFS models had TD9 moving NNW then rolling over on a more westerly track.
Slower development with a faster tracking weaker storm usually means less chance of the storm recurving early.
I won't trust the models till we have a named tropical storm.

[Andrew92]

I remember a storm called Fran in 1996 that fell apart (back into an open wave), and became a total mess, and then came back up two days later. Not saying it will happen with this system for sure, but it could. The point is I'll wait and see (say 24 - 48 hr) before I totally write it off.


Hybridstorm_November2001

I dunno what it's been, but I have recently wondered if we will have a storm follow a track similar to Fran of 1996. I have never voiced that opinion, but I've had it; I just always thought it would come later. Could TD 9 become the next Fran? We shall see.

Also remember 2001, when for a while, every storm or depression opened into a wave, only to redevelop and get stronger.

-Andrew92

[johngaltfla]

Uhhh the weakness in the ridge is closing up quick.

Check analyses from 3 hrs ago to now .

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8dlm5-1.html

Hmmm, this is an interesting system no matter the outcome

Interesting. I think once it passes 50W we'll have the picture of what we'll possibly be dealing with. Right now, it does appear to be getting better organized...

[BensonTCwatcher]

I wish you guys would quit saying that. ( about Fran) Truthfully, there's no such thing as two identical storms.

[SouthFloridawx]

The system is heading toward an area with decreasing shear. I think we just need to wait and see. Not every system out there is going to form and hit the us like in the last couple of years.