TD 9 has no true closed circ

[Ivanhater]

what is your thought about the track, thinking more north of your previous because of the movement overnight, or more south of your previous one because of being weaker than forecast?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

And to put in bluntly with the inability to locate the center; the track guidance at this point is little better than guessing. In other words the NHC track is crap


Hybridstorm_November2001

[WeatherEmperor]

I really hate when things like this happen especially when everything was going good so far and now this.

<RICKY>

[Derek Ortt]

as for track... I am not sure right now. In the short term a west to WNW track with the LL flow is likely

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The actual track all depends on where the center reforms when (if) it regenerates in the next couple of days (roughly). Though I have a feeling maybe WNW (next 24 - 48 hrs roughly), then bending back more or less West as the ridge builds back to the North.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[WeatherEmperor]

as for track... I am not sure right now. In the short term a west to WNW track with the LL flow is likely

Derek, are you saying that it should then in the short term stay a bit south of the NHC track?

<RICKY>

[Derek Ortt]

it has the potential to remain well south of he NHC track since it is alreayd south of the NHC track as it has turned more to the west from earlier.

However, as a mere borad low, what difference does it make?

[storms in NC]

wait till Sunday and we will know what it will do. I'll be fishing all day Sunday for kings so I'll have to wait till Sunday night

[BensonTCwatcher]

Perhaps this matters? Not sure about the SAL. If it get's into that area of warmer SST's

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/movies/m8split/m8splitjava5.html

The dry air may not stay as dry as it appears in the current WV loops no? The next blob will be behind the system. 24 hours will make a big difference

[Wnghs2007]

it has the potential to remain well south of he NHC track since it is alreayd south of the NHC track as it has turned more to the west from earlier.

However, as a mere borad low, what difference does it make?

Well it could allow it to reach a point where if it were to re develop it could potentially impact the US. If it were to have periodic blow ups of convection to keep the system going atleast, and then it reaches a certain point where if it develops the flow would carry it into Florida or the GOM.

Like it keeps this heading and strength til the trough passes it by and then Redevelops to a very strong system then it could cause us trouble.

[storms in NC]

May I ask a question? Why does alot of the one on here think every storm is going to hit Fla. OMG it sounds like the NC folks did a few years back . LOL

[Sanibel]

If storm manages to track west it should get over the hump and develop.

If storm tracks NW into weak area that failed to boost Franklin or Harvey it could stay as naked spiral.

[Wnghs2007]

May I ask a question? Why does alot of the one on here think every storm is going to hit Fla. OMG it sounds like the NC folks did a few years back . LOL

Because that is really the only place this could hit the US if it misses the trough, because by that time the ridge will be strong enough to move it west.

If it catches the trough then it is out to sea, So that basically limits the potential of where this storm could hit.

It could go possibly as far north and Southern South Carolina.

Main point is

1. After the Trough Departs the ridge will build back in to the area where the storm could be if it misses the trough and would tend to push it on a further west course (WNW,W, etc)

2. If it catches the Trough then we know it will be a fish. So that basically takes out the possibility of the Mid Atlantic or Northeast Being hit.

[wxmann_91]

I'm still saying that this storm will not be a fish, as because it's weak, it'll tend to move more equatorialward and have less chance to catch the weakness. Of course once it moves south of the ridge I think it'll develop rapidly.

[deltadog03]

too me there is not much weakness if any..read the hpc discussion....

[Ivanhater]

yes, staying weak, staying under neath the radar if you will, and waiting till it gets under the ridge to develop

[wxman57]

I'm still measuring 289 degrees at 18 kts on GARP over the last 3 hours. That's not west, it's WNW. Pretty pathetic looking LLC now. Probably wouldn't qualify for an upgrade from a wave at this point, but the NHC probably won't downgrade it.

i do agree on a WNW vs. NW track Should stay left of the currrent NHC track. However, it's already almost at the latitude of the northernmost islands of the NE Caribbean, so it probably will pass N-NE of there in 4-5 days. Who knows what it'll do after then. It may not survive for 4-5 days.

[Derek Ortt]

on top of the SAL, it asppears as if westerly shear is impacting TD 9

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm sorry I hyped this system up yesterday morning.

[Ivanhater]

I'm still measuring 289 degrees at 18 kts on GARP over the last 3 hours. That's not west, it's WNW. Pretty pathetic looking LLC now. Probably wouldn't qualify for an upgrade from a wave at this point, but the NHC probably won't downgrade it.

i do agree on a WNW vs. NW track Should stay left of the currrent NHC track. However, it's already almost at the latitude of the northernmost islands of the NE Caribbean, so it probably will pass N-NE of there in 4-5 days. Who knows what it'll do after then. It may not survive for 4-5 days.

well it never was terribly organized in the first place, so it hasnt really fallen apart like some think