TD 10 in GOM?

[jax]

There looks to be a depression forming in the GOM south
of Pensacoula...

Panama City Beach has SE wind
Destin has E wind
Dauphin Island has NE wind.
Data bouy south of Destin WNW winds

Preasure still high... Plenty of convection
very close to land

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Ivanhater]

looks good on satellite, where is it moving? i havnt been following it much, maybe i should since its right on top of me, lol

[jax]

looks pretty stationary...

I don't look for much development... too close to land
but is it deepens any... there's gonna be a lot of rain...

[deltadog03]

very slowly WSW

[djtil]

ull with surface reflection.....not really tropical.

[TS Zack]

Yes, mainly a baroclinic low. It is a stacked low in the Low/Mid/Upper levels.

It could become something but probable won't happen too quickly.

[jax]

ull with surface reflection.....not really tropical.

with the wind referances I gave above... there is obviously
a counter clockwise rotation at the surface... it's not strong...
but there is something of a surface low there...

[djtil]

yes..."surface reflection" mentioned by local nws....but this doesnt really make it a candidate for a tropical depression due to the upper level low/cold core characteristics.

[jax]

yes..."surface reflection" mentioned by local nws....but this doesnt really make it a candidate for a tropical depression due to the upper level low/cold core characteristics.

that cold core could warm QUICKLY is this area...
I would like to see this just go away...

[johngaltfla]

Impressive. That would not be a shocker if it drifted WSW, or S and developed...

[Stormcenter]

What?!?!?!? Are we talking about the same area here?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[Stormcenter]

Let's see if the NHC mentions it in their next outlook.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah its to bad its already on the coast.

[jimvb]

With all this talk about TD #9 and the assembly line of tropical cyclones coming off the west Africa coast, maybe we missed this storm. Yesterday's MM5 showed it blossoming into a full fledged cyclone, even though it was inland. A good way of seeing it develop is to go to the CMC's cloud pictures. First go to http://www.richastro.org, then click on the two rows of little squares, then click on any of the top squares on the Clear Dark Sky Clock, then scroll and click on "Pan South", then click on Animate. Do this within 6 hours of my posting this message. You will see it develop and head to the northeast, towards the Carolinas from the west, like Ivan, Frances, Cindy and some other storms did. The last frame even features a "tornado tornado" - a long appendage on radar dangling south from the east side of the cyclone, resembling a tornado in shape, and in which the chances for real tornadoes is much higher than normal. Tornado tornadoes are characteristic of hurricanes that hit land. It is too close to land already to develop into a tropical cyclone, but the effect on the southeast may be the same as that of Ivan or Cindy.

[WeatherEmperor]

Do you see how warm the waters are in that part of the gulf or the entire gulf for that matter? In the upper 80's to close to 90. If that thing just sits and sits and sits for days then something could really get goin.

<RICKY>

[jasons2k]

as pointed out by some others in the other GOM threads, this type of development is very rare....but possible.

look at the NHC final report on Alicia, page one, paragraph 2, it sounds just like the GOM today. The link and even an image of the report was posted in the other thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... c&start=20

[jrod]

I see that thing moving East with possibly a center of circulation over land. No chance until the center can get over land and with out a south component that will never happen.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has nice shape to it but its only about 50 miles from the coast. It is slowly moving to the northeast.

[jax]

Let's see if the NHC mentions it in their next outlook.

i would be surprised if they didn't mention it...

[N2Storms]

It looks as though the GFS closes off a very weak low and moves it inland Sunday Night or Monday along the western FL Panhandle...