TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 ADVISORY 5
2:00 PM PDT AUG 5 2005 (5:00 PM EDT OR 21 Z AUG 5 2005)
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FOR OFFICIAL FORECASTS...PLEASE REFER TO THE NHC. THIS IS AN INDEPENDENT PRODUCT.
PLEASE REMEMBER...HURRICANES CAN BE VERY UNPREDICTABLE AND CAN MAKE SUDDEN CHANGES AND/OR SHIFTS
IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.
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TD 9 IS HOLDING ITS OWN...FOR NOW. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE FRAMES HAVE SHOWN A FEW SPORADIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION ON ITS SOUTHERN SIDE. HOWEVER...DRY AIR HAS FULLY ENTRAINED THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THE WARMER SST'S ARE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...I HAVE KEPT THE SYSTEM AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FORECAST AFTER THAT AS TD 9 MAY MOVE INTO WARMER WATERS AND A LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO WOULD BE THAT THE LLC WOULD FIZZLE OUT COMPLETELY AND TD 9 WOULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A WAVE...OR THAT A NEW LLC MAY FORM OUT OF THE MLC LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT LLC. IF THE LATHER SCENARIO PANS OUT...THE INTENSITY FORECASTED MAY HAVE TO BE UPED...AS THE SST'S ARE A BIT WARMER IN THAT REGION AND THERE IS LESS DRY AIR IN THAT REGION.
THE NHC HAS TD 9 CURVING TO THE NORTHEAST...WOULD BE THE CASE IF TD 9 GOES THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE TROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND...I FORECAST TD 9 TO MISS THE WEAKNESS...IN WHICH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WOULD STEER TD 9 TOWARD THE WEST. IN ANY CASE...MY FORECAST IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER TANG
HOUR POSITION INTENSITY
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INITIAL 17.0N 39.1W 25 KT
12 HR 17.3N 40.5W 25 KT
24 HR 17.7N 42.3W 25 KT
36 HR 18.3N 44.2W 30 KT
48 HR 19.1N 47.0W 35 KT
72 HR 20.0N 50.9W 45 KT
96 HR 20.8N 55.1W 50 KT
120 HR 21.5N 59.4W 60 KT
Track:
Comments and suggestions welcomed!
(as a sidenote, do you guys want me to keep doing these forecasts? just wondering)
BTW, likely there won't be an 11 PM advisory from me as I'll be busy tonight.
