TD#9

[jrod]

All the wave models I have seen with this one(which have done poorly) dissapate it and take the remains east of Bermuda. This would be a bummer because with all the storms we've had the East Coast of Florida is still hasnt had any decent waves, if that holds true we will be skunked once again.

I am about to shut the computer down and not check things for at least a day hopefully longer.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here are the steering currents looks like we will have a more westward motion. 700-850 HPA....

[Ivanhater]

seems like the nhc is stuck on which scenario to go with, recurve it or continue on a wnw track...this sure is a tricky system..i wonder what suprises this has overnight tonight like last night

[EDR1222]

I guess, as is usually the case, as long as it stays fairly weak, it will continue to be hard to forecast the movement.

[johngaltfla]

Thanks southfloridawx2005! You kept us slower and tireder (well, it will be a word for all of us by Oct 1) posters from having to look that up. A more westward motion is most disturbing.

[HURAKAN]

I'm not ready to say goodbye to TD 9, not ready to throw the towel as many of our members have done with their commentaries. The depression is going through a bad time right now with all the dry air surrounding mostly the northern part of the system. As we know, if this environment continues the system wouldn't be able to develop. But in the tropics things can change quickly, and TD 9 has a healthy circulation. If conditions worsen then of course the system will die, but there is still light at the end of the tunnel according to the scenarios mentioned by the NHC. Time will tell.

By the way, ask Chris, 1988 about having trouble to develop!!!

[Nimbus]

If TD 9 is south of 20N at 50W as the GFDL forecasts it should be over some warmer SST's.
The current track looks like the LLC has been on a 285 heading.
I'm not sure what the GFDL is hinting at further west near 60 where they curve the track nw right at the end.
The GFDL must be keeping the storm weak so that it misses the first low to the north of the track.

[Derek Ortt]

the shera maps show much higher shear along the path. The shear has beend ecreasing, though its much higher than the shear ex TD 9 is currently experiencing

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here is the 48 hour shear magnitude forecast map:





Hybridstorm_November2001

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Oh and for anyone interested here is Fran's track:





Hybridstorm_November2001

[deltadog03]

well since it is weak it will be steered moreso by the lower level winds...here is a map with them....hmmm...i see a more westerly componet to continue...unless this really strengthens quickly

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8v4km.html

[WeatherEmperor]

I almost forgot how Fran 96 formed all the way by 20W and still made landfall in the US. That was amazing.

<RICKY>

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z models just came out.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[deltadog03]

only the gfdl is 00z...unless i am missing something

[BensonTCwatcher]

All I can say if YUP. We were lucky she came in at low tide at cat 2 3ish. It cut topsial island into 5 smaller islands. We had to wait for them to fill in the inlets to get home. I think (hope) all the similarities will end at 45W. I was thinking all along that 9 resembled Isabel all this time, but the comeback move (if it happens) would get eeryone exited. They have just begun mentioning a tropical system in the media here.

[elysium]

My take on 95L is somewhat to vastly different than those posted threads preceeding. Firstly, development is non-problematic IMHO. This system, while not guaranteed to develop, is still an odds on favorite, and it would be very surprising if in fact it didn't. We must assume that it will develop so that we can go on to the real issue; directional heading in 5 days.

As i see it, it is not a question of whether or not 95L will turn to fish. Every indication has it that 95L will be positioned to the E.N.E. to due east of the southern Bahamas on wednesday or thursday. At that time, an enormous entrenched long lasting high pressure ridge will be positioned to the north of 95L, and will extend from the middle of the Atlantic westward into the GOM. This ridge will also be reinforced from the west by high pressure pushing eastward from the mississippi valley region, although this is not so certain as is the presence of the subtropical ridge. This ridge will be around for a while; at least 4 or 5 days and more than likely longer than that.

Since there is no telling what 95L's forward speed will be at that point in time, it is hard to accurately forecast whether 95L will be forced due west and into Hispaniola and Cuba, or whether 95L will head slightly north and enter the GOM through the Florida Straits. In other words, I think that it is not a question of whether or not 95L will miss the east coast to the north, but rather to the south. IMO, recurvature is not the issue. It is simply a question of how strong will tyhe ridge be to 95L's north in 5 days, and how far west will 95L have traveled by that time.

If 95L is only north of Puerto Rico, then the Florida Straits would seem to be the likely point of entry into the GOM. If 95L is much closer to the Turks and Caicos, and noirth of Hispaniola, then it is likely that parts of Hiospaniola and Cuba will be impacted, and that 95L will be torn apart. Also, we need to consider how far north 95L will be pulled up by the trough now tugging at it. The farther north 95L is pulled up now, the more likely a Florida Straits entry into the GOM, or possibly the Florida penisula itself. Any northward movement taking place right now enhances and does not diminish the threat to the Florida Straits. It is not an issue of 95L having too much northward movement, but rather not yet enough northward movement to get over the islands. There are only two chances for northward movement; right now and 7 days from now at the earliest, more likely 8 or 9 days. It's almost a certainty that in about a week from now the big issue will be whether or not 95L can pass to the north of the northern most point on Cuba's coastline, as the ridge finally begins to weaken.

[WeatherEmperor]

only the gfdl is 00z...unless i am missing something

no the graphic isnt updated yet but scroll down and the number plots will be there.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

Graphic updated to reflect the 00:00z run.Bamm model is much further west at this run.

[WeatherEmperor]

good. graphic did update. what do you think this means Luis?

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

good. graphic did update. what do you think this means Luis?

<RICKY>

Weaker system more westnorthwest (290-295) than NW.