TD 10 in GOM?

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Stormcenter
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#61 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:02 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Doubt anything will develop unless another weak low forms S of LA Coast over the next few days.

Here is the Accu-Weather blurb:

Currently, a weak upper-level low is situated over southern Mississippi-southern Alabama. There are indications that a surface circulation is trying to develop. Every once in a while, these types of systems can develop into something more significant. It is an area to watch over the next few days.


I respectfully disagree. I think this has the potential to develop right where it's at. IMO :D
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loon
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#62 Postby loon » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:03 pm

soooooo, you don't think anything is going to happen...but here is a blurb of someone saying to watch it, cause something might happen? Sorry, I'm just confused, people usually don't back their statements up with a conflicting view....or perhaps I'm reading it wrong.

I for one will keep an eye out, these things can fire up quickly out there in that area.

cheers,
loon
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#63 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:06 pm

Y'all -

I have a bad gut feeling about this. I've been staring at the GOM for the last 8-9 days now and nothing has happened yet. But I never liked that old trough hanging around for so long.

I just looked at the visible shots. A small LLC has formed near Mobile and it's moving SW. I am very concerned when we see the visibles in the morning we will be shocked.

This is the most concerned I have been all season including Cindy & Emily.
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Steve
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#64 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:09 pm

>>I just looked at the visible shots. A small LLC has formed near Mobile and it's moving SW. I am very concerned when we see the visibles in the morning we will be shocked.

I don't think the visibles will be shocking the morning simply because the convection has been firing up daytime from 9:30ish until about 10ish at night. Obviously that changes with low-level feedback, but for now, it's just something to watch. Various models continue to close off surface isobars and re-open them up (excepting the mm5 of course) over the next few days.

Steve
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#65 Postby dwg71 » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:10 pm

Its nothing, wont even get an invest...
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#66 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:12 pm

The LLC is now over land. In also the convection has died out over the last few hours. I do see a weak LLC about 80 miles off the coast. But it is weak.

I'm more interested in that tight cirualtion off the East coast of Florida.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#67 Postby superfly » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:13 pm

This has no chance in hell.
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#68 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:19 pm

dwg71 wrote:Its nothing, wont even get an ivest...



In the GOM, it's a crapshoot. Anyone will tell you that. We've seen small storms bloom off the East Coast of Florida in less than a 36 hour period.

I think you need to remember the Hurricane Center's comments about climatology during a discussion on Emily....

SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.
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#69 Postby Ixolib » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:25 pm

superfly wrote:This has no chance in hell.


Ah, yes.... Words to live by. :roll:

Interesting choice of words, especially when compared to the words in the 5:30pm TWO...
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#70 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:40 pm

Its not gonna do jack because itll never make it off the coast.
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BayouVenteux
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#71 Postby BayouVenteux » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:45 pm

superfly wrote:This has no chance in hell.


Image

Careful what you proclaim. The kitchen's open 24/7 during the season. :wink: :lol:
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#72 Postby hicksta » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:48 pm

i thought somone mentioned it moving wsw. which would allow for development. Keep your eyes peeled
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#73 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:50 pm

hicksta wrote:i thought somone mentioned it moving wsw. which would allow for development. Keep your eyes peeled


Bah....i see a due west movement paralleling the coast. Thats just me.
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#74 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:52 pm

BayouVenteux wrote:
superfly wrote:This has no chance in hell.


Image

Careful what you proclaim. The kitchen's open 24/7 during the season. :wink: :lol:


lol! That is why I refrain from making bold statements.

<RICKY>
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#75 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:56 pm

Normandy wrote:Its not gonna do jack because itll never make it off the coast.



I'm guessing a WSW motion clearly seen in the Vis loop means its moving N.... :roll:
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RE:

#76 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:56 pm

I honestly think the wave behind TD 9 will beat it to it.


Hybridstorm_November2001
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Normandy
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#77 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:57 pm

ROCK wrote:
Normandy wrote:Its not gonna do jack because itll never make it off the coast.



I'm guessing a WSW motion clearly seen in the Vis loop means its moving N.... :roll:


Its not moving wsw imo....and even IF it does get off the coast, it runs right into LA and parallels the LA coast at best.

Not happening.
Last edited by Normandy on Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ROCK
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#78 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:57 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The LLC is now over land. In also the convection has died out over the last few hours. I do see a weak LLC about 80 miles off the coast. But it is weak.

I'm more interested in that tight cirualtion off the East coast of Florida.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html



saw this also. Good eyes MATT... small little low I'm guessing moving to the east....interesting.....
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ROCK
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#79 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 05, 2005 6:02 pm

Normandy wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Normandy wrote:Its not gonna do jack because itll never make it off the coast.



I'm guessing a WSW motion clearly seen in the Vis loop means its moving N.... :roll:


Its not moving wsw imo....and even IF it does get off the coast, it runs right into LA and parallels the LA coast at best.

Not happening.



I guess we agree to disagree. Your right, a SW motion would run it into the Southern tip of LA but then?? IVAN II seemed to have manifested itself along this same area.
Should note the sst's currently running into the upper 80's to 90's along the coast.....
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Stormcenter
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#80 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 05, 2005 6:19 pm

dwg71 wrote:Its nothing, wont even get an invest...



Oh this season "everything" gets an invest. :lol:
It's just a matter of time.
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