TD 9 Forcasted Path 11pm CDT 8/05

[floridahurricaneguy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

At this current moment Tropical Depression 9 does still have a fairly large and well defined center. Right now there is really no organized convection and at this time does not seem to be getting more organized. Some models have it getting through a weakness in the ridge and turning to the north. Some have it turning on a more northwest path. Also some have it going on a more westnorthwest path. Even some models have it dieing out. I decided like the NHC to go in between the extremes have a inbetween path. I expect it to reach TS status in 72 hours. At this time the forecast intensity and path is very uncertain. Only time will tell.


Comments?

[gkrangers]

Well it mimics the NHC track, like you said.

Not sure of your knowledge level, but maybe you could explain, on a synoptic level, what the basis of your track is? Maybe more than "well this model says this, and this model says that, and the NHC says this"?

What I mean is, describing the strength of the ridging, potential weaknesses, upper level troughing and lows that will govern the track of TD9.

No big deal if you can't get anymore in depth, just a suggestion.

[smashmode]

Looks like its going to be a fish

[floridahurricaneguy]

Well it mimics the NHC track, like you said.

Not sure of your knowledge level, but maybe you could explain, on a synoptic level, what the basis of your track is? Maybe more than "well this model says this, and this model says that, and the NHC says this"?

What I mean is, describing the strength of the ridging, potential weaknesses, upper level troughing and lows that will govern the track of TD9.

No big deal if you can't get anymore in depth, just a suggestion.

I unforturnately dont know enough just yet to feel confident into getting into more depth. My forecast are kinda just, well I looked at this and this and this is what I predict. I am still learning but I know so much more then I did last summer.

Matt

[gkrangers]

Well it mimics the NHC track, like you said.

Not sure of your knowledge level, but maybe you could explain, on a synoptic level, what the basis of your track is? Maybe more than "well this model says this, and this model says that, and the NHC says this"?

What I mean is, describing the strength of the ridging, potential weaknesses, upper level troughing and lows that will govern the track of TD9.

No big deal if you can't get anymore in depth, just a suggestion.

I unforturnately dont know enough just yet to feel confident into getting into more depth. My forecast are kinda just, well I looked at this and this and this is what I predict. I am still learning but I know so much more then I did last summer.

Matt

Thats cool. Same here..last summer I could stare at the model plots. This summer I'm gaining a better understanding of the "why".

[Astro_man92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Comments?

\

I think it wil go a little farther south

[WindRunner]

A little farther south in my opinion, too. Especially late-period. I don't see that sudden turn to the NW.

[Jim Cantore]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I tend to think this syestem is going to turn back west but eventually turn out to sea just a gut feeling