TD#9

[cycloneye]

i think the LLC is already west of 40W....anyone think that??

It has passed 40w now at around 18.0n-40.5w and it's moving more faster than earlier today.If it not gains convection soon it will not be too long to have an open wave.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Man if this thing dies, hope get some interesting waves coming off africa soon then.

Matt

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With the current MJO Matt, the activity may stay at a low level until August 15th or later.
But once the MJO gets active, it's going to get wild according to GFS.

[Sanibel]

Maybe slightly more west now...

[WXFIEND]

This storm has me baffled.

and I've never seen so many people flip flop so many times within 36 hours...

So what's everyones LATEST thinking? Is it pretty much agreed it won't get caught in the weakness between the ridges or is that still up in the air?

[Patrick99]

It would seem to me that this thing is a weakling, so it should go further west........but it has seemed to defy the "weaker, west-er" rule

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

95L- track may shift slightly left

Off topic but just to point out-
LOOK at the convection over Africa-
The difference is that the MJO if favorable by Aug. 15
may facilitate development of some of these unlike with previous waves
that struggled due to dry MJO ...---

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=mediterranean/tropics&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20050806.0130.msg1.ir.x.africa_tropics.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

[gkrangers]

This storm has me baffled.

and I've never seen so many people flip flop so many times within 36 hours...

So what's everyones LATEST thinking? Is it pretty much agreed it won't get caught in the weakness between the ridges or is that still up in the air?

50/50

[Ixolib]

WOW - 19 (edit=20) pages for a tropical depression!!
Guess this proves we got so spoiled early in the season that now - with
little else going on - a TD gets this extreme attention...

And this doesn't even count all the other threads on TD9!!!!!

No doubt, we're an interesting bunch...

[Derecho]

I've seen a variety of large convectionless swirls (LCSes? Maybe we need an acronym) develop before; Bonnie 1998 was one.

[clfenwi]

This storm has me baffled.

and I've never seen so many people flip flop so many times within 36 hours...

So what's everyones LATEST thinking? Is it pretty much agreed it won't get caught in the weakness between the ridges or is that still up in the air?

I started out thinking there was an outside chance of SC/NC landfall. Now, I think that the chances of any kind of landfall are very near zero.

Storm has continued to gain latitude during the day, at no point has it sustained a westerly course.

Both global and limited area models are near unaminous in turning the depression to sea.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

People may look at the second graphic and say 'But the BAMS are keeping it west!' . To that I say, look at the performance of the 18Z BAMs. (http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080518 )
They offered a forecast position of 17.3 North for 0600Z this morning. At 11 PM the depression was already at 17.6 North. Clearly, they don't have a handle on the situation.

The continued northerly component in its movement combined with the shear at the periphery of the upper level low to the north do not bode well for the future of this depression.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it's pretty obvious we are in a lull now with no reversal YET in site. I know it can reverse in a heartbeat, but so far anything that comes off the coast pretty much disolves into nothing..... I think by late August/early September it will start getting busy again. Looks like our lull is being delayed a bit longer being that mid August starts in about a week...

[Sanibel]

I said months ago that I suspected an oceanic track pattern this year from CV.

Just by glancing, the synoptic in front of this looks like a no-way for landfall.

That's what this board is for. Let's see what it does...

[ConvergenceZone]

you might be on to something Sanibel. This could be the year for fish(except of course for the first part of our season which was different).

At least we should still have a bunch to track even if they are all fish.

[gkrangers]

The ULL to its north is not going to get it...lets see if the weakness left by the Harvey trough does.

It'll be an interesting weekend. We probably really won't know till Monday if we have a recurver or a SE threat.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.***

The big threats this year in my opinion may be homegrown storms
that just develop right off your coast and
then roll on in within a few days (like Gabrielle in 2001)
Given lots of troughs we could see storms go NE this Sept. But they'll be strong TS or perhaps weak Cat 1 like Gabrielle, not the cat3+ horrors
we experienced last year.

The exception: If there is a lack of shear and other favorable conditions, homegrown storms have a
slight chance of bombing out prior to landfall, due to
high SSTs
so perhaps like gabrielle except cat 2.

[jasons2k]

***The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.***

The big threats this year in my opinion may be homegrown storms
that just develop right off your coast and
then roll on in within a few days (like Gabrielle in 2001)
Given lots of troughs we could see storms go NE this Sept. But they'll be strong TS or perhaps weak Cat 1 like Gabrielle, not the cat3+ horrors
we experienced last year.

The exception: If there is a lack of shear and other favorable conditions, homegrown storms have a
slight chance of bombing out prior to landfall, due to
high SSTs
so perhaps like gabrielle except cat 2.

I agree, I'm not even watching #9 right now, it's too early to know anything IMO. There are other areas closer to home.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yup those silly homebrewn storms

Yummy crow! I thought this thing would be much stronger today....but the crow's still yummy!!! Yee-haw!

Boons to mankind:
1. Chocolate
2. Yummy Crow with spices

***About the CROW:

I am not saying that TD 9 is a bust...but just that today a prediction of mine was proven wrong when TD 9 did not get as strong as I originally thought it would by this time.***

[wxmann_91]

I'll wait for morning data to revise my amateur forecast. Meanwhile, if this doesn't develop, then this year could wind up like 1933, no CV storms, all homegrown , and now I can actually see why records in 1933 wasn't that bad after all, perhaps no CV storms did form, ya never know.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Over the last hour or so there appears that moisture is trying to wrap around the southeastern side. In also the cirualtion has been getting tighter. On top of that the convection is starting to build closer to the LLC. Interesting.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html