TD#9

[Windtalker1]

And what was the strength of the burmuda high in each of those years? What was the SST's for all those storms.....You can not say this storm will do the same as others because every storm is in itself diffrent. Every storm that forms, the condictions are not the same. I never go by past storm tracks to determine where another storm that forms in the same place 20 years ago....just my opinion

[deltadog03]

ok, i got 2 thinkgs out of the 11am disco....they center may be a tad further north BUT, its also slowing down...that weakness is quickly filling in and unless this really races to the WNW then the trof will more than likely fill and and a WNW path will continue and then a W turn towards the bahamas.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Behind this system looks like fierce looking cargo on the Cape Verde Wave Train. Some of these may develop, and things are likely to get very busy shortly.

[Frank2]

Here is a link to last season's tracks:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

notice that the mid-Atlantic weakness was there, too - it seems that this feature has been there for some time, though the difference this season is the absence of a consistently strong ridge in the western Atlantic.

Frank

[cycloneye]

It looks like some convection is trying to wrap around the low center.

[Sanibel]

Shape looks flattened from the north.

Don't see any reason for no recurve behind Harvey...

[clfenwi]

Here is a link to last season's tracks:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

notice that the mid-Atlantic weakness was there, too - it seems that this feature has been there for some time, though the difference this season is the absence of a consistently strong ridge in the western Atlantic.

Frank

2004 offers the same lesson that the climatology in general offers: The further north and east a storm forms, the less likely it is to affect the mainland.

Why isn't TD 9 like Frances, for example? Because (among other things), when TD9 passed by the meridian where Frances developed, it was already 114 nautical miles north of her track. That may not sound like much, but the historical averages show that every minute of latitude makes a difference.

[storms in NC]

TD#9 has a lot of dry air to go though

[wxman57]

Oh, I think TD 9 is maybe 12 hours away from becoming a TS. Convection is wrapping inward toward the center. Looks nearly as good as TS Harvey now, but the circulation isn't tight enough. That 18.8N latitude starting point at 43W is pretty far north to be a U.S. threat, though. I still think it'll most likely curve north between 53W-58W and head out to sea. This is particularly true if it strengthens in the next 24 hours.

Here's an 18Z shot with 1-deg lat/lon lines. About at 19.0N/42.9W.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene15.gif

[storms in NC]

I really don't think anyone has a clue on what it is going to do. Jennie did the same thing last year.If they have any hair left from her they will have none with TD#9

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (AL092005) ON 20050806 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050806 1800 050807 0600 050807 1800 050808 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.8N 42.7W 19.2N 43.9W 19.6N 45.1W 20.0N 46.1W
BAMM 18.8N 42.7W 19.4N 44.5W 20.1N 46.2W 20.4N 47.6W
A98E 18.8N 42.7W 19.8N 44.8W 20.4N 46.3W 21.0N 47.6W
LBAR 18.8N 42.7W 19.5N 44.5W 20.4N 46.6W 21.5N 48.7W
SHIP 30KTS 30KTS 30KTS 32KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 30KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050808 1800 050809 1800 050810 1800 050811 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.5N 47.3W 22.0N 50.2W 24.5N 54.3W 27.4N 58.1W
BAMM 20.7N 49.1W 21.4N 52.3W 23.0N 56.2W 25.1N 59.8W
A98E 21.8N 48.5W 24.2N 50.9W 27.1N 53.5W 29.7N 54.0W
LBAR 22.6N 50.7W 25.0N 54.3W 28.7N 56.5W 31.3N 56.0W
SHIP 34KTS 40KTS 49KTS 54KTS
DSHP 34KTS 40KTS 49KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 42.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 40.5W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.6N LONM24 = 38.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z Model guidance.

[cycloneye]

18:00z Graphic of the model guidance.

[Nimbus]

TD 9 has outrun the ULL to the north and will soon be under the eastern side of a high pressure dome as the area fills in.
The models that show a turn toward the west should verify in the short term.
There is a ULL over Puerto Rico that is beginning to roll west quite far ahead of TD9.
This ULL looks as though it may be an indication of a stronger ridge to the north of it extending out over Bermuda.
Does this mean a more favorable environment for TD 9 will stay with the storm as it moves west?

I don't like the look of the developing ridge, looks like it could capture 9 as far north as 25 degrees and still bring it west into the US coastline.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

yikes, please don't say 25 degrees latitude, and west into the US coast in the same sentence. I live at 26.2 :*( and thats WAY too close

[deltadog03]

i agree nimbus...TD9 will miss the ULL to the north...and great point about the ULL near PR, I also think that is an indication on how strong that ridge is...or is atleast going to be...

[storms in NC]

Boy have you seen how fast TD#9 has builded up

[Derek Ortt]

one important point

ITS NOT MOVING AT 300. The center was just relocated farther north. The actual motion is closer to 280

[deltadog03]

i agree derek...who is saying 300?? the models?

[gkrangers]

i agree derek...who is saying 300?? the models?

Yes.

[deltadog03]

ok, thanks...yeah, i would see a general 280 movement as well...thats one big reason i feel like its gonna miss that trof/ULL