TD#9

[clfenwi]

The upper level low IVO Puerto Rico is moving west because it has a mid-upper level ridge to the north of it.
("MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE NW PART OF THE AREA.... FROM 30N64W
S OF BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA.")

Notice that the ridging described there is not a ridge extending well across the Atlantic; it is realatively localized as the eastern edge of it as 64° West.

[wxman57]

one important point

ITS NOT MOVING AT 300. The center was just relocated farther north. The actual motion is closer to 280

I put the center at 18.5N/41.5W earlier today. Now it's at 19.9N/43W. That equates to about 15 degrees north of 270 or 285 degrees. It would be easier if I was using GARP at work.

[elysium]

It is a little premature to suggest at this early juncture that T.D. 9 is an imminent threat to the east coast. What it is that we are witnessing taking shape is only the early beginnings of an Andrew like scenario in which a rapidly intensifying hurricane is positioned under a building ridge locked onto a westward heading, travelling through the south central/ southern Bahamas. Since T.D. 9 or 95L has not yet even reached tropical storm status, we must wait until clear evidence comes into the forum suggesting that at least a moderate intensification cycle has begun. And while i have pretty much grown tired reminding everyone that 95L may yet still run itself out, until we have clear-cut evidence of intensification, we should refrain from any declarations of east coast landfall. Only frame by frame review of satellite download suggestive that an intensification process is clearly underway will free us to post declarations on possible landfall targets. What must not jump the gun.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is looking fairly well defined. In a large area of convection has formed over the southeast to northeast quads. This looks better then Alison,Gert,Bret,Arlene,Grace,Fay, In many others. Please tell me that theres no 40 mph winds over that southeast quad.

[clfenwi]

It is a little premature to suggest at this early juncture that T.D. 9 is an imminent threat to the east coast. What it is that we are witnessing taking shape is only the early beginnings of an Andrew like scenario in which a rapidly intensifying hurricane is positioned under a building ridge locked onto a westward heading, travelling through the south central/ southern Bahamas. Since T.D. 9 or 95L has not yet even reached tropical storm status, we must wait until clear evidence comes into the forum suggesting that at least a moderate intensification cycle has begun. And while i have pretty much grown tired reminding everyone that 95L may yet still run itself out, until we have clear-cut evidence of intensification, we should refrain from any declarations of east coast landfall. Only frame by frame review of satellite download suggestive that an intensification process is clearly underway will free us to post declarations on possible landfall targets. What must not jump the gun.

So, stuff like this would be out of order?

You may not like me anymore, but I'm telling it like it is. This is extremely dangerous. That? That is a cataclysmic looking situation out there and not a joke. And I'm going to lose even more friends here, because I read all the posted threads and am totally amazed at the extremely high level of knowledge around here about tropical cyclones. You all make me look like a dope. But come on here a little people. Anyone that doesn't understand the seriousness of this situation can't possibly be looking at the same chit I'm looking at. This is a developing monster hurricane that is not going to recurve. I cannot believe how lightly this 95L storm is being taken. 95L is absolutely nothing less than the most perfectly cohesive and structurally magnificent tropical cyclone specimen that one can ever envision at this stage of development. And have you all researched the various models indicating the position of the ridge?

You all are very knowledgable except when something so self evident is staring you in the face. A major hurricane heading straight for northern Cuba/ Florida Straits is in the making. But really, you all should be telling me this. You all know a lot more than I. Flame away but I'm posting this. 95L is nothing short of awesome.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=987531#987531


You should find the guy that wrote that and give him a talking to.

[Derek Ortt]

sure that position is not 19.0 and not 19.9?

[gkrangers]

You should find the guy that wrote that and give him a talking to.

LMAO

credibility cancel

[clfenwi]

sure that position is not 19.0 and not 19.9?

The result of his math does suggest that he meant 19.0, not 19.9...

[gkrangers]

sure that position is not 19.0 and not 19.9?

The result of his math does suggest that he meant 19.0, not 19.9...

Yeah..I don't know if the GHCC lat/long overlay is spot on, but at 18:45 the center was at 18.9N..so now probably 19N.

[wxman57]

sure that position is not 19.0 and not 19.9?

Yep, you're right. 19.0N - fat fingers.

[elysium]

T.D. 9 will have to pull farther to the north than it is doing at this hour before clearing the Greater Antilles is safely assumable. In about 72 hours the last possibility for any appreciable northward movement will have passed until late in the forecast period at around day 9 or 10.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The fatty foods in my duodenum have been thoroughly emulsified during the time which I watch TD 9 on satellite.

[Sanibel]

Red signature burst in the CDO!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Red signature burst in the CDO!

Vhahoo!!! There is zee clicker....Finally some excitement

[superfly]

If/When the convection wraps around, watch out!

[Normandy]

Hmm....I always thought for a CDO to be a CDO the center had to be under it.

[gkrangers]

Hmm....I always thought for a CDO to be a CDO the center had to be under it.

I believe so...TD9 has some convection on the eastern side, but its certainly not a CDO. And it won't be able to develope more uniform convection until the westerly shear abates.

[elysium]

I am not minimalizing the threat. I am merely stating that it is premature to suggest east coast landfall. If someone wants to advise that the residents in the islands need to watch this one, that is perfectly acceptable. Until there is clear evidence of intensification for at least 6 hours, advising about east coast landfall would, in my estimation, be jumping the gun a little. This is not yet officially even a tropical storm. It is a very serious situation for the islands until we see more northward movement.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes the shear should lessen a bit I think in order for better development

(Tampa Bay Hurricane's brain busts into intense shear.....
waaahhooooooo)

[floridahurricaneguy]

This has me so confused... Gut feeling is florida may get suprised and some of the islands. Who knows!

Matt