Extratropical Irene Advisories

[cycloneye]

062031
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005

...DEPRESSION RELOCATED NORTHWARD...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1305 MILES...2100 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...19.0 N... 43.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$




600
WTNT24 KNHC 062031
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
2100Z SAT AUG 06 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 43.2W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 43.2W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 42.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.6N 44.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 48.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N 50.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.8N 53.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 27.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 43.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

[cycloneye]

TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION BECAME BETTER DEFINED LATE THIS
MORNING TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL POSITION ESTIMATE.
THE ADJUSTED TRACK YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/11 AVERAGED OVER
THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL SHEARED WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION ABOUT 90 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN BANDING HOWEVER...AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS STRONGER THAN IT DID THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE ARE
SOME 35 KT WINDS IN THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH I HAVE NO DVORAK
ESTIMATES HIGHER THAN 25 KT...AND SO I WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR NOW. THE DEPRESSION IS GOING TO HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH DRY AIR AND WESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH WILL BE GRADUALLY
INCREASING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...BUT IS ABOVE THE GFDL...WHICH DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS PERHAPS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ON A TRACK THAT ULTIMATELY BENDS TO THE RIGHT THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
HARVEY. THE 12Z GFS NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
PARTLY DUE THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION...AND
PARTLY TO THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 19.0N 43.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 19.6N 44.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.0N 48.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 50.3W 35 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 22.8N 53.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 25.0N 56.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 27.0N 58.0W 50 KT

[cycloneye]

[Derek Ortt]

This is NOT moving at 300. Its now closer to 275

[Sanibel]

Correct. And possibly because it is breaking from the ULL...

[Ivanhater]

This is NOT moving at 300. Its now closer to 275

thank you, i thought i was going crazy!

[cycloneye]

This is NOT moving at 300. Its now closer to 275

Derek that may be in part of the reposition of the center more north.

[gkrangers]

This is NOT moving at 300. Its now closer to 275

I can understand why they went with 300, but they have to have noticed the nearly due west over the last hour. Doesn't make sense to keep it at 300 based on the center positions..not asking for a 275~ track, but atleast go more westerly than 300.

[Lowpressure]

It will end up trimming out around 285 for 18 hours with the repositioning taken into account.

[Derek Ortt]

the relocation or reformation is NOT supposed to be included in the initial motion. I really am having trouble understanding 300

[wxman57]

THE ADJUSTED TRACK YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/11 AVERAGED OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS.

Problem is, they had the center about 50 miles too far south earlier this morning, so their 300 deg calculation is as out to lunch as their earlier center position.

[deltadog03]

yeah, something is not jiving here...i don't know why they said its been moving 300...we shouldn't take a 18 hour mean position...

[angelwing]

Am i going crazy or there is no 8PM update on Harvery or #9????

[cycloneye]

Am i going crazy or there is no 8PM update on Harvery or #9????

The advisories come up every six hours as there are no watches or warnings posted anywhere.

[angelwing]

Ah ok, still learning here, thank you very much:)

[cycloneye]

977
WTNT34 KNHC 070228
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIGHTING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.3 WEST OR ABOUT
1230 MILES...1985 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.9 N... 44.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$




302
WTNT24 KNHC 070228
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
0300Z SUN AUG 07 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 44.3W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 44.3W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 43.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.2N 45.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.7N 47.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 27.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 44.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY SHEARED. THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CAN HARDLY
SUPPORT A T-NUMBER BY USING THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE CENTER AND THE
CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO VISUALIZE HOW THE CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE WITH THE CURRENT SHEAR
CAUSED BY THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LOW TO ITS NORTH. THE ATLANTIC IS
PLAGUED WITH UPPER-LOWS...A PATTERN THAT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES TO INTENSIFY. THE GFS IS KEEPING THE UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR DAYS...AND BOTH THE GFS AND
THE GFDL RELENTLESSLY INSIST ON DISSIPATING THE CYCLONE. IT IS
HARD TO GO AGAINST THESE TWO MODELS. HOWEVER...CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS WILL BE FOLLOWED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS
BASED ON THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE A LESS HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE
UK...THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS PREFER A SOUTHERNMOST TRACK
AND THE NOGAPS A NORTHERMOST. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE NOT INCLUDED
SINCE THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE QUITE SOON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST BECAUSE IF THE SHEAR CONTINUES...THERE
WILL BE NOTHING TO TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY GFS AND GFDL MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 18.9N 44.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 19.2N 45.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 19.7N 47.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 20.5N 49.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 23.0N 54.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 57.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 27.0N 59.5W 50 KT

[kevin]

Almost dead.

[rainstorm]

sounds like good news!!!

[Anonymous]

sounds like good news!!!

Yep..this thing may never become Irene.