I can't believe......

[dixiebreeze]

the NHC hasn't yet named NoName. She looks really awesome this afternoon. A TS already, for sure.

[storms in NC]

They will hold back till closer maybe Sunday night or Monday morning. Have to see if it stays together

[gkrangers]

the NHC hasn't yet named NoName. She looks really awesome this afternoon. A TS already, for sure.

I wouldn't call it awesome. It has alot of shear and dry air to contend with..and thats not going to change. Its probably borderline strong TD/weak TS right now..and theres no reason to think that will change in the near future. NHC also is starting to comit to a recurvature track as of 5PM.

[Sanibel]

There's a huge slug of dry air in front of it. No need to rush...

[senorpepr]

the NHC hasn't yet named NoName. She looks really awesome this afternoon. A TS already, for sure.

Well... there is no evidence that is a tropical storm yet. Dvorak estimates are actually lower that what NHC is estimating and QS data, when available, keeps it at depression strength. It's a good call on their part.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its most likely a tropical storm right now based on how defined the LLC has gotten with the deep convection slowly becoming better oreganized over the southeast quad. This looks better then Arlene,Gert,Bret,Grace, Alison. But the nhc wents to see a text book storm which will not happen with all the shear. In with out obs/surface data then theres really nothing else. If this gets into the western Atlatnic it will be a different story.

As much as this reminds me of those tropical storms. I will have to say that the nhc doe's not have any data because there is none out there.


Also Senr Arlene would be a tropical depression if it was based on t numbers. They don't always work with these kinds of systems.

[senorpepr]

Its most likely a tropical storm right now based on how defined the LLC has gotten with the deep convection slowly becoming better oreganized over the southeast quad. This looks better then Arlene,Gert,Bret,Grace, Alison. But the nhc wents to see a text book storm which will not happen with all the shear. In with out obs/surface data then theres really nothing else. If this gets into the western Atlatnic it will be a different story.

As much as this reminds me of those tropical storms. I will have to say that the nhc doe's not have any data because there is none out there.


Also Senr Arlene would be a tropical depression if it was based on t numbers. They don't always work with these kinds of systems.

I realize that Dvorak isn't a foolproof system, but in a situation like 09L where you have a depression well out to sea with no possible impacts to land within a few days, they aren't going to go for the tropical storm status just for kicks.

It's a different story when life and property are at jeopardy, such as with Arlene and the other storms you mentioned. In that case, a subjective upgrade is sensible. However, in a situation where nothing but the occasional shipping lane is affected, there's really no reason to subjectively upgrade a depression into a storm. They're right for waiting for better data.

[WeatherEmperor]

cool.

<RICKY>