TD#9

[Derek Ortt]

an alternate scenario, which may be more likely, is that the LLC is degenerating.

We still have good inflow though, so this may just be temporary

[sma10]

Why are people downplaying this season??? Its August 7th for crying out loud! We had one named storm down last year at this time! Favorable conditions cannot occur all the time. This is simply an unfavorable pattern. If this lasts another week people will start saying that the season is over and no more storms will form. All hell will break loose in mid-late August, and im afraid we wont get a break til the end of September.

Scorpion:

This is nothing. Back in 1998, I remember we were nearing the 3rd week in August and had only 1 name by then. Everyone on the chat boards was crying a death knell. (Of course, we ended up with 14 storms including Bonnie, Georges, and Mitch.)

People can be notoriously fickle with tropical weather. Just watch. If conditions continue to be a bit unfavorable for another 7 days or so the crying of a lost season will begin in earnest. (Oh by the way: Remember about a week or two ago when people were whining about how they "needed some rest from all the storms forming every other day?") I guess you can never please everyone.

P.S. Just IMAGINE how insufferable this board would be if we had to live through the dark years of the 70's and 80's. Those were some dry years man.

[fci]

Well, we are all so hyped over potential storms that every little jog or convection wrap yields some level of hysteria.

Let's remember that this system has struggled from its start, it is located far north and; to paraphrase someone else; has approximately a 100% chance of being a fish.

Take a deep breath elysium; and wait for some kind of a trend to develop and confirmation from NHC; or a Pro Met; before getting too worked up over an almost 100% fish!!

OMG, what will people do when we hit the expected "peak"of the season in a few weeks or so???!!??

[gkrangers]

really i'm to tired to think but I think it will be persuaded by the ridge to move weast and hit some where on the east coast

wouldn't it be funny if that happened but TD nine traveled inbetween florida and cuba and stengthened into a major hurricane absorbed that wave that might be TD 10 by then who knows, and then died out because it absorbed TD 10 and it oviously had somthing bad about it

lol srry I have a very big imagination

But what would happen if that did happen besides the absorbing of TD 10

It would be awkward and scary I think I'd be saying that storm has to much luck ( typical Irene) lol

[gkrangers]

an alternate scenario, which may be more likely, is that the LLC is degenerating.

We still have good inflow though, so this may just be temporary

Gonna be interesting to see what is there when the sun rises.

[Ivanhater]

an alternate scenario, which may be more likely, is that the LLC is degenerating.

We still have good inflow though, so this may just be temporary

ya, the old low is dying out for sure, but like i said i think its re forming somewhere else..im thinking where the convection is wrapping

[Astro_man92]

really i'm to tired to think but I think it will be persuaded by the ridge to move weast and hit some where on the east coast

wouldn't it be funny if that happened but TD nine traveled inbetween florida and cuba and stengthened into a major hurricane absorbed that wave that might be TD 10 by then who knows, and then died out because it absorbed TD 10 and it oviously had somthing bad about it

lol srry I have a very big imagination

But what would happen if that did happen besides the absorbing of TD 10

It would be awkward and scary I think I'd be saying that storm has to much luck ( typical Irene) lol

lol funny pic lol

[wxmann_91]

really i'm to tired to think but I think it will be persuaded by the ridge to move weast and hit some where on the east coast

wouldn't it be funny if that happened but TD nine traveled inbetween florida and cuba and stengthened into a major hurricane absorbed that wave that might be TD 10 by then who knows, and then died out because it absorbed TD 10 and it oviously had somthing bad about it

lol srry I have a very big imagination

But what would happen if that did happen besides the absorbing of TD 10

It would be awkward and scary I think I'd be saying that storm has to much luck ( typical Irene) lol

Many TC's have passed thru the FL Straits, it's not funny, it's happened before, and it would be really bad. For one, the FL Keys would be impacted severely, and a surge from a major hurricane would submerge many of those low-lying islands. Second, a hurricane passing thru the Straits would not lose strength.

Just curious, is it possible for a Cat 4 to strengthen to a Cat 5 in the FL Straits? I wouldn't think so because of the impedement of outflow due to Cuba directly to the south, but I could be wrong.

Anyway, back on topic here, IMO this won't go that way because a trough coming off the east coast of the US would likely make TD 9 (if it's still there) curve toward the Mid-Atlantic or out to sea.

[sma10]

really i'm to tired to think but I think it will be persuaded by the ridge to move weast and hit some where on the east coast

wouldn't it be funny if that happened but TD nine traveled inbetween florida and cuba and stengthened into a major hurricane absorbed that wave that might be TD 10 by then who knows, and then died out because it absorbed TD 10 and it oviously had somthing bad about it

lol srry I have a very big imagination

But what would happen if that did happen besides the absorbing of TD 10

It would be awkward and scary I think I'd be saying that storm has to much luck ( typical Irene) lol

Give AstroMan a break. He's only 13 years old and it's well past his beditme.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it is forming where I think its forming. That is near the western edge of the convection where the touge of convection is wraping. Then this might be very close to become a tropical storm. If not then thats another story.

[Frank P]

looking at this loop the center appears to be just west of the new blow up of convection... it almost gives the appearance that the new convection is trying to cover the center but not quite... you have really watch the motion of the low level clouds to be able to discern it.. still looks to be going in a generally west motion

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Astro_man92]

good Idea

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

really i'm to tired to think but I think it will be persuaded by the ridge to move weast and hit some where on the east coast

wouldn't it be funny if that happened but TD nine traveled inbetween florida and cuba and stengthened into a major hurricane absorbed that wave that might be TD 10 by then who knows, and then died out because it absorbed TD 10 and it oviously had somthing bad about it

lol srry I have a very big imagination

But what would happen if that did happen besides the absorbing of TD 10

It would be awkward and scary I think I'd be saying that storm has to much luck ( typical Irene) lol

Many TC's have passed thru the FL Straits, it's not funny, it's happened before, and it would be really bad. For one, the FL Keys would be impacted severely, and a surge from a major hurricane would submerge many of those low-lying islands. Second, a hurricane passing thru the Straits would not lose strength.

Just curious, is it possible for a Cat 4 to strengthen to a Cat 5 in the FL Straits? I wouldn't think so because of the impedement of outflow due to Cuba directly to the south, but I could be wrong.

Anyway, back on topic here, IMO this won't go that way because a trough coming off the east coast of the US would likely make TD 9 (if it's still there) curve toward the Mid-Atlantic or out to sea.

Yes its very possible look at the 1935 hurricane

[sma10]

If it is forming where I think its forming. That is near the western edge of the convection where the touge of convection is wraping. Then this might be very close to become a tropical storm. If not then thats another story.

We'll see. We may learn a little more when we see where NHC initialized the 6Z tropical models.

[Ivanhater]

aight, i got church in the morning so im gonna go...i have no idea what im going to find when i wake up, hopefully it will be moving northeast and there will be no doubt it will be a fish

[wxmann_91]

Why are people downplaying this season??? Its August 7th for crying out loud! We had one named storm down last year at this time! Favorable conditions cannot occur all the time. This is simply an unfavorable pattern. If this lasts another week people will start saying that the season is over and no more storms will form. All hell will break loose in mid-late August, and im afraid we wont get a break til the end of September.

Scorpion:

This is nothing. Back in 1998, I remember we were nearing the 3rd week in August and had only 1 name by then. Everyone on the chat boards was crying a death knell. (Of course, we ended up with 14 storms including Bonnie, Georges, and Mitch.)

People can be notoriously fickle with tropical weather. Just watch. If conditions continue to be a bit unfavorable for another 7 days or so the crying of a lost season will begin in earnest. (Oh by the way: Remember about a week or two ago when people were whining about how they "needed some rest from all the storms forming every other day?") I guess you can never please everyone.

P.S. Just IMAGINE how insufferable this board would be if we had to live through the dark years of the 70's and 80's. Those were some dry years man.

The problem is the tropical season pretty much ends for me on August 25. High school starts for me on that day, and it is one of the most important parts of my life. Depending on the amount of homework and time I have, I may still spend some time here (actually a lot I bet, I'm addicted to Storm2k) and tracking, but I don't think I'll have as much time in HS as I did in middle school to track supercells and landfalling tropical cyclones.

But overall this year I've got my fair share of beautiful storms. Of course, unfortunately, those beautiful storms were also deadly ones.

[sma10]

Yes its very possible look at the 1935 hurricane [/quote]

The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane is the classic model of what would be a modern-day mega-disaster. A tropical storm lumbering into the Bahamas strengthens into a category 5 hurricane at 892 mb in 36 hours at landfall. Andrew is the closest we've had since, but we had a little bit more notice because he was already a hurricane approaching the Bahamas.

[Sanibel]

The strength of a TC is usually reflected in the CDO. It doesn't make sense that this one would be red signature bursting and lose its LLC...

[Astro_man92]

really i'm to tired to think but I think it will be persuaded by the ridge to move weast and hit some where on the east coast

wouldn't it be funny if that happened but TD nine traveled inbetween florida and cuba and stengthened into a major hurricane absorbed that wave that might be TD 10 by then who knows, and then died out because it absorbed TD 10 and it oviously had somthing bad about it

lol srry I have a very big imagination

But what would happen if that did happen besides the absorbing of TD 10

It would be awkward and scary I think I'd be saying that storm has to much luck ( typical Irene) lol

Many TC's have passed thru the FL Straits, it's not funny, it's happened before, and it would be really bad. For one, the FL Keys would be impacted severely, and a surge from a major hurricane would submerge many of those low-lying islands. Second, a hurricane passing thru the Straits would not lose strength.

Just curious, is it possible for a Cat 4 to strengthen to a Cat 5 in the FL Straits? I wouldn't think so because of the impedement of outflow due to Cuba directly to the south, but I could be wrong.

Anyway, back on topic here, IMO this won't go that way because a trough coming off the east coast of the US would likely make TD 9 (if it's still there) curve toward the Mid-Atlantic or out to sea.

of sorry I didn't think it had happened before but I mean TD 9 going thru the straits as a TS and strengthen in the Gulf.

Hmmm question/Idea

If it was moving fast like we saw with emily the winds will pick up and the pressure will go down but it it hits as a cat 2 or Cat 3 or even Cat 4 the surge wouldn't be very bad right because the storm would be moving to fast for the surge to develope in time right.

oh and why I bring up emily is becase it didn't form an eye until it was a cat 3 and she should have developed it when she was a TS right

[gkrangers]

There is a difference between having an eye and having a visible eye.

Just cuz it doesn't look like a donut, doesn't mean it doesn't have a structural eye.