Dramatic move north last 24 hours...

[Anonymous]

This Water Vapor Loop of the Eastern Atlantic shows Tropical Depression Nine has tracked very far north in the last 24 hours. There is still a chance this could miss the weakness and steamroll west, however the window is rapidly closing, IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[dhweather]

Yes, I think TD 9 is in the grasp of the ULL to its North.

I think we won't have much to say about TD 9 in another day or two -
the SST's can't support it much further north.

[Steve H.]

Excuse me, you are not looking at the center. The center has moved very slowly during the past few hours, mostly at 270. The convection is getting torn to the NE, the center of LL circulation is to the SW of the convection. A WV loop is terribly deceiving, and it only goes to 00:30

[mike815]

well i kinda agree with u the storm has slowed and it is hard to say but it might be moving slightly south of west ,but thats just something i notised the azors high may be for at least the short turm building ina bit sry just some things i noticed.

[MWatkins]

Excuse me, you are not looking at the center. The center has moved very slowly during the past few hours, mostly at 270. The convection is getting torn to the NE, the center of LL circulation is to the SW of the convection. A WV loop is terribly deceiving, and it only goes to 00:30

I was just logging on to start another post on the same thing. Shortwave IR shows the center moving at 270 or perhaps even a lil' smigde south of due west (although it could be the LLC is just not showing as well in the last couple of frames in the IR 2 imagery).

Yep right now this is a highly sheared system...makes me wonder if it can survive this another 36 hours....

MW

[Ivanhater]

well this system has suprised me, it has overcome a lot, it doesnt want to die

[Sanibel]

The center has done something weird. I'm not sure where it is.

The convection is tailing over the center now...

[ConvergenceZone]

I think I can honestly say that if tropical storms were easy to predict we would all be bored and wouldn't be attracted to the storms as we are.

That's what makes them fun

[gkrangers]

The center appears to have reformed a bit further north in the last few hours.

Shes a fighter...

[Sanibel]

Center relocated north in one jump. Something is tugging it...

[Nimbus]

She is still south of 20 its just that the convection has begun to wrap around to the north of the LLC.
Once the shear lets up and the the LLC finally stops re centering under the convection we should get a better idea of the true heading.
Looks like the forward speed has slowed a bit which may indicate a change in direction.
The upper air flow is still quite zonal with a short wave racing west to drive Harvey out of the picture.
I am not sure where you call fish given the current upper air pattern.
If 9 gets above 25N before 60W she should head out.

[Ivanhater]

ok, mike ...you gotta tell us your new thinking of irene...last time i heard you thought it would turn out to sea, still thinking that?

[Anonymous]

ok, mike ...you gotta tell us your new thinking of irene...last time i heard you thought it would turn out to sea, still thinking that?

Yes, I still think it will move out to sea...

EDIT...Although I think the chances of a westward movement have gone up slightly.

[TampaFl]

ok, mike ...you gotta tell us your new thinking of irene...last time i heard you thought it would turn out to sea, still thinking that?

Yes, I still think it will move out to sea...

EDIT...Although I think the chances of a westward movement have gone up slightly.

[deltadog03]

well, we didn't see a northward jump today...the past 6 hours have yielded almost a 275 heading...not 285....

[gatorcane]

look at the visible sats and you will see a 275-285 degree movement....

[deltadog03]

yeah, i would give it a rough 280 movement...