Extratropical Irene Advisories

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, it is not looking to well defined as a TC and may become nothing more than a TW by tomorrow sometime. Just don't see much of a chance for it right now, but it will have to be watched for regeneration out east of Florida by weeks end IMO.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I've been thinking this all along. That it might go down to an open wave, slip under the high, and then threaten the East Coast as it regenerates down the road. TD seems to be a tricky devil.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[Ivanhater]

it sure is, but convection is actually wrapping closer to the center, while the center is less defined, i give up...do whatever you want to do td9!

[Hurricaneman]

It might just blow up when it hits the warmer waters

[djtil]

It might just blow up when it hits the warmer waters

the waters could be boiling and it wouldnt develop with these upper air conditions....thats the key..not the water.

any convection that develops is quickly blown way east of the center....if these conditions continue (as models suggest) than development will be nearly impossible.

[P.K.]

WTNT44 KNHC 070855
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE HAS AGAIN REFORMED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION. WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS SHEARED...CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND
AFWA...SO THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS RESEMBLING THAT OF A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/9. THE DEPRESSION
REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LOCATED NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF TROPICAL STORM
HARVEY. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME WEAKNESS WILL PERSIST IN
THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION MOVES WESTWARD AND A
SECOND RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR POSSIBLY NORTH
THEREAFTER. TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...
WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDL CALLING FOR A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AND
THE GFS A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION. THE UKMET TAKES THE
DEPRESSION FARTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT IT INITIALIZED
THE SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH EVEN BEFORE THE RECENT RE-FORMATION. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY MOVE MORE
WESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST...WHICH EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL
POSITION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONE POTENTIAL
PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST TRACK IS THAT THE CENTER MAY NOT BE
THROUGH RE-FORMING JUST YET.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE DEPRESSION AND LOTS OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR. THE GFS AND
CANDIAN MODELS FORECAST A SURGE OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO
DEVELOP AND REPLACE THE TROUGH WITH AN ANTICYCLONE. THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS ARE LESS BULLISH ON THIS POSSIBILITY...AND SO FAR THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS CONTINUED SHEAR. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION AND GRADUALLY WARMING SE SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IF THE GFS/CANADIAN
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DOES DEVELOP...THE SYSTEM COULD GET MUCH
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL
MODEL...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY DISSIPATED THE DEPRESSION...NOW
CALLS FOR IT TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 19.6N 44.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 20.0N 46.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.7N 48.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.4N 50.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 22.2N 52.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 55.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 57.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 12/0600Z 28.0N 60.0W 55 KT

[wxman57]

I wouldn't be so quick to discount development. Here's the first visible image of the day. Sure looks near TS strength now:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene16.gif

[Lowpressure]

I wouldn't be so quick to discount development. Here's the first visible image of the day. Sure looks near TS strength now:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene16.gif

I agree, if the shear lessens, it is on.

[rainstorm]

it looks pretty bad to me. if this map verifies its no threat in any case.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

[linkerweather]

If that map verifies it will be a major threat to the canadian maritimes.

[linkerweather]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 071241
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM NINE (AL092005) ON 20050807 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050807 1200 050808 0000 050808 1200 050809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.2N 45.0W 20.5N 46.2W 21.0N 47.4W 21.5N 48.5W
BAMM 20.2N 45.0W 20.8N 46.6W 21.3N 48.1W 21.7N 49.5W
A98E 20.2N 45.0W 20.9N 46.5W 21.6N 47.7W 22.7N 48.7W
LBAR 20.2N 45.0W 20.8N 46.4W 21.7N 48.2W 22.5N 49.8W
SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 37KTS 39KTS
DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 37KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050809 1200 050810 1200 050811 1200 050812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.1N 49.8W 24.0N 53.5W 26.3N 57.9W 28.5N 61.2W
BAMM 22.2N 50.9W 24.1N 54.5W 26.7N 58.6W 29.0N 60.8W
A98E 24.1N 49.5W 27.3N 51.7W 30.4N 52.8W 30.8N 48.7W
LBAR 23.6N 51.4W 27.1N 54.4W 31.4N 55.0W 33.0N 51.3W
SHIP 42KTS 51KTS 55KTS 55KTS
DSHP 42KTS 51KTS 55KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.2N LONCUR = 45.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 43.5W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 41.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Any volunteer who may want to post the 11 AM advisories on Irene and Harvey please do so as I will go to church at that time.

[Stormchaser16]

As long as this little piece of crap is gone by the time i have to leave on my cruise next sunday im fine!

[pavelbure224]

Tropical Storm Irene Advisory Number 12

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 07, 2005
...Ninth tropical storm of the season forms in the central Atlantic...earliest ninth storm on record...

At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of tropical storm Irene was located near latitude 20.5 north... longitude 45.5 west or about 1160 miles...1865 km... east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Irene is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph ...15 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Irene remains a poorly organized tropical cyclone and little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles ... 75 km...mainly to the northeast of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Repeating the 11 am AST position...20.5 N... 45.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.

Forecaster Franklin

[pavelbure224]

Tropical Storm Irene Discussion Number 12

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 07, 2005
the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm on the basis of a Quikscat pass at 0849z this morning...showing 40 kt vectors just outside the deep convection to the north of the center. The ambiguity vectors from this pass also show the dying center that was tracked westward last evening and the beginnings of the new center that formed farther north. The storm upgrade is also supported by Dvorak classifications of t2.5 from TAFB and AFWA. Since the time of the Quikscat pass...the deep convection near the center as well as the organization has diminished somewhat...so the initial intensity will be set at 35 kt.

It is sometimes more productive to track the overall disturbance than the circulation center itself...in this case ignoring the circulations that have formed...moved more westward...and then died...only to be replaced by new centers to the north. Doing so yields an overall system motion of 300/8. A mid-level ridge currently lies to the northwest of Irene. The GFS...NOGAPS... UKMET...and ECMWF all agree that this ridge will move westward and weaken over the next 5 days. Irene is expected to continue a general...if erratic...west-northwestward track and then turn northwestward into a weakness to the east of this ridge. The official forecast is based on a blend of the GFS and GFDL solutions and is also very close to the FSU superensemble.

Irene is only slowly making its way toward warmer waters. Water vapor imagery and global model guidance suggest that an unfavorable upper flow pattern is likely to persist for another couple of days. Consequently...little change in strength is expected in the short term. The GFDL no longer makes Irene a hurricane and in fact shows little change over the next 5 days. The official forecast...which favors the SHIPS guidance...allows for some strengthening near the end of the forecast period in response to warmer waters and the possibility of less shear.

The 2005 hurricane season continues on its record-setting pace. Irene is the earliest ninth named storm on record...breaking the old mark by 13 days. Normally by this date only two named storms have formed.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 07/1500z 20.5n 45.5w 35 kt 12hr VT 08/0000z 20.9n 47.0w 35 kt 24hr VT 08/1200z 21.5n 49.0w 35 kt 36hr VT 09/0000z 22.1n 50.6w 35 kt 48hr VT 09/1200z 22.8n 52.1w 40 kt 72hr VT 10/1200z 24.5n 55.5w 45 kt 96hr VT 11/1200z 27.5n 58.0w 50 kt 120hr VT 12/1200z 31.0n 59.5w 55 kt


$$

[Ixolib]

The 2005 hurricane season continues on its record-setting pace. Irene is the earliest ninth named storm on record...breaking the old mark by 13 days. Normally by this date only two named storms have formed.

Forecaster Franklin

That's an interesting quote to help keep things in perspective!! No doubt, we've definitely been spoiled by this year's activity.

[WindRunner]

If that map verifies it will be a major threat to the canadian maritimes.

Unfortunately, that map completely disappated Irene and the low over the maritimes came from the Great Lakes. The more recent run show Irene giving a near direct hit to Bermuda before turning back out to sea.

[rainstorm]

i am rather surprised at its upgrade. looks more like a wave to me

[cycloneye]

072035
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
2100Z SUN AUG 07 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 46.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 46.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 46.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.7N 47.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.4N 49.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 51.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.8N 53.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 32.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 46.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE THIS MORNING
HAS DISSIPATED OR BEEN LEFT BEHIND BY WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR NOW...BUT IF CONVECTION DOES
NOT RETURN THE CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO IRENE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY DRY AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE CYCLONE MAY
WELL NOT SURVIVE THIS TRIP BUT IF IT DOES...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN MAY EXIST AFTER 48 HOURS.
WATER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG THE PATH
OF IRENE SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE GFDL MODEL DISSIPATES IRENE WITHIN
48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CURRENTLY LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF IRENE. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE CANADIAN MODEL...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD
INTO A WEAKNESS TO THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 21.1N 46.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 21.7N 47.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 22.4N 49.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 51.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 23.8N 53.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 26.0N 55.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 58.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 32.5N 58.0W 50 KT


Irene is on an artificial respirator.