TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Frank P]

strange indeed... appears that it has a severe stacking problem watching the lastest GOES vis loop... looks like the mid level circulation is lagging behind off to the ESE

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Ivanhater]

this storm has more twists and turns than an episode of days of our lives

[P.K.]

Now listed as Irene on the FNMOC page. No change yet to the NRL page.

[deltadog03]

Here's a McIdas image hot off the press. Definitely not a TS any more. Waiting to see if the NHC pulls the trigger or places the gun back in its holster...

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene25.gif

if this does not indeed develop in the next few days, wont it go with the low level steering flow?

yes!! a weaker system will be steered by the low level flow...which is from the east

[wxman57]

Here's a McIdas image hot off the press. Definitely not a TS any more. Waiting to see if the NHC pulls the trigger or places the gun back in its holster...

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene25.gif

if this does not indeed develop in the next few days, wont it go with the low level steering flow?

yes!! a weaker system will be steered by the low level flow...which is from the east

Well, it's been steered by low-level flow for days now, and it's still tracking 290-295 degrees. Chances of it impacting the east U.S. coast are very low.

[Stratosphere747]

No offense guys, but S2k has always had the consistency of waiting for the NHC to make the official call. Yet here we have two threads with TD9/Tropical Storm Irene. It is either one or the other.

Very confusing for those that can't go back and read thru the whole thread.

Scott

[deltadog03]

yeah, but that track mean is bogus...are they factoring in the north redevlopments?? i mean sure its redeveloped north but, everytime it moves its almost due west...anyone know?

[Ivanhater]

well i think if it stays very weak like it is now it will have a great chance of missing the weakness , then after that even if it does develop it will already be past the weakness and under the ridge and chances of a us landfall goes up greatly

[Ivanhater]

im not completely sold on a northward turn(its more likely), but there is always the chance that it does not develop and simply ride on the low level to the west

[dwg71]

Give it up boys...its a fish.

[Ivanhater]

Give it up boys...its a fish.

i think it is too, but this is certainly not the easiest storm to track

[wxman57]

I don't think that the center keeps "reforming" at night, I think the NHC keeps losing it at night. It has had a fairly well-defined LLC the past few days, too well-defined to simply dissipate after sunset and reform overnight. I'd say that the chances of this storm affecting the east U.S. Coast directly are in the 5-10% range, about what I said 3-4 days ago.

Anyway, my work is done, so I'm heading home for a nice long bike ride in the cool Houston summer!

Here's a parting McIdas image of what was, I mean is, Tropical Storm Irene:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene26.gif

[KeyLargoDave]

It's official: TPC/NHC has Tropical Storm Irene 11 am advisory, Sunday Aug. 7.

(excerpt):
THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THE BASIS OF A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0849Z THIS MORNING...SHOWING 40 KT VECTORS JUST OUTSIDE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

[Aquawind]

TS Irene... ..go figure..LOL

Paul

[dwg71]

Give it up boys...its a fish.

i think it is too, but this is certainly not the easiest storm to track

models, nhc, and climo have been screaming fish the entire time...it was pretty straight forward.

[feederband]

Welcome to the 2005 club Irene

[ROCK]

Give it up boys...its a fish.

great post. I'm so glad we have people who can see into the future...

[Aquawind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 071444
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005

...NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...EARLIEST NINTH STORM ON RECORD...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST OR ABOUT
1160 MILES...1865 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...20.5 N... 45.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Ivanhater]

dont be suprised if a temporary wsw movement takes place today with the low exposed right now

[Aquawind]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 071444
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THE BASIS OF A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0849Z THIS MORNING...SHOWING 40 KT VECTORS JUST
OUTSIDE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE
AMBIGUITY VECTORS FROM THIS PASS ALSO SHOW THE DYING CENTER THAT
WAS TRACKED WESTWARD LAST EVENING AND THE BEGINNINGS OF THE NEW
CENTER THAT FORMED FARTHER NORTH. THE STORM UPGRADE IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA.
SINCE THE TIME OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS...THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AS WELL AS THE ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 35 KT.

IT IS SOMETIMES MORE PRODUCTIVE TO TRACK THE OVERALL DISTURBANCE
THAN THE CIRCULATION CENTER ITSELF...IN THIS CASE IGNORING THE
CIRCULATIONS THAT HAVE FORMED...MOVED MORE WESTWARD...AND THEN
DIED...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY NEW CENTERS TO THE NORTH. DOING SO
YIELDS AN OVERALL SYSTEM MOTION OF 300/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF IRENE. THE GFS...NOGAPS...
UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A
GENERAL...IF ERRATIC...WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THEN TURN
NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS TO THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS
AND IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

IRENE IS ONLY SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD WARMER WATERS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AN UNFAVORABLE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.
CONSEQUENTLY...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE GFDL NO LONGER MAKES IRENE A HURRICANE AND IN FACT SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH
FAVORS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO WARMER WATERS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LESS SHEAR.

THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES ON ITS RECORD-SETTING PACE.
IRENE IS THE EARLIEST NINTH NAMED STORM ON RECORD...BREAKING THE
OLD MARK BY 13 DAYS. NORMALLY BY THIS DATE ONLY TWO NAMED STORMS
HAVE FORMED.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 20.5N 45.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 47.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 49.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.1N 50.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 22.8N 52.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 55.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 27.5N 58.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 31.0N 59.5W 55 KT


$$