TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[dwg71]

Give it up boys...its a fish.

great post. I'm so glad we have people who can see into the future...

Its not rocket science, just because I say the sun is going to set tonight doesnt make me clarvoyant. Its been a fish since day 1.

[Ivanhater]

go apply to the nhc then becasue you obviously know more than them, becasue they sure didnt know it was a fish from day 1

[ROCK]

dont be suprised if a temporary wsw movement takes place today with the low exposed right now

I agree. Looks like another center is trying to reform or like a previous poster had posted a stacking problem is occuring. Shear being the culprit here.

[deltadog03]

and they still don't know its gonna be a fish...I am still at work but, when I get home i will make a new map with new thinking....maybe around 1pm cdt....

[Wnghs2007]

Well, Finally for the first time in a few years the I storm is not going to be that huge of a system.

[dwg71]

go apply to the nhc then becasue you obviously know more than them, becasue they sure didnt know it was a fish from day 1

There has never been any discussion,from nhc, of this affecting the US, every forcast they issued on this had a fish track. From the very get go. Because they dont forecast out passed 5 days they dont address landfall in their discussions, but every forecast has extended further and further north. Its been a fish from day one, despite what anyone on here has been trying to convince otherwise of.

[Ivanhater]

Well, Finally for the first time in a few years the I storm is not going to be that huge of a system.

i hate "i" storms as you can tell by on name, lol

[dwg71]

and they still don't know its gonna be a fish...I am still at work but, when I get home i will make a new map with new thinking....maybe around 1pm cdt....

Even at the furtherst western edge of their cone they have it going no further west than Bermuda.

Dog your first map had it south of 20N 60W and NHC had it around 20N and 45W. Its a fish...

[ROCK]

and they still don't know its gonna be a fish...I am still at work but, when I get home i will make a new map with new thinking....maybe around 1pm cdt....

Even at the furtherst western edge of their cone they have it going no further west than Bermuda.

Dog your first map had it south of 20N 60W and NHC had it around 20N and 45W. Its a fish...

Dwg.....The sky is blue??...just seeing of you wanted to debate that.....

But seriously, I think its implied from the GET GO that the NHC is thinking Irene could be a US event done the road. If not why even keep tabs on it??

Trackwise it could lift out to sea. Climo suggests this would be the case at such a high lat. However, IMO, Irene/ TD 9 still has a chance to continue W, given its lack of organization and the ridge filling the void left by Harvey. 2 more days before I call it a fish...

[dwg71]

and they still don't know its gonna be a fish...I am still at work but, when I get home i will make a new map with new thinking....maybe around 1pm cdt....

Even at the furtherst western edge of their cone they have it going no further west than Bermuda.

Dog your first map had it south of 20N 60W and NHC had it around 20N and 45W. Its a fish...

Dwg.....The sky is blue??...just seeing of you wanted to debate that.....

But seriously, I think its implied from the GET GO that the NHC is thinking Irene could be a US event done the road. If not why even keep tabs on it??

Trackwise it could lift out to sea. Climo suggests this would be the case at such a high lat. However, IMO, Irene/ TD 9 still has a chance to continue W, given its lack of organization and the ridge filling the void left by Harvey. 2 more days before I call it a fish...

They keep tabs on all systems in the Atlantic, whether they are a threat to US or not. Not trying to be difficult, just stating facts. All are entitled to their opinion, but we are entitled to argue that opinion if we feel it is baseless. If I was calling fish, when models, nHC, and climo were suggesting otherwise, I'd get drilled.

[Ivanhater]

problem is you said it WAS a fish from day 1 and the track is straight forward, well you are one of the few who think the track is simple, this is one of the more difficult storms to forecast, if it was an opinion you should of stated it that way, not that it wa something from day 1

[Ivanhater]

and with a center that changes more often than rupauls wardrobe, who is to say the center will not relocate further east, or south, or west. anyone who says it WILL be a fish or WILL hit the east coast or WILL go in the gulf are mistaken, no one KNOWS for sure and should not act like they do

[swimaster20]

and with a center that changes more often than rupauls wardrobe, who is to say the center will not relocate further east, or south, or west. anyone who says it WILL be a fish or WILL hit the east coast or WILL go in the gulf are mistaken, no one KNOWS for sure and should not act like they do

AMEN!

[cycloneye]

No offense guys, but S2k has always had the consistency of waiting for the NHC to make the official call. Yet here we have two threads with TD9/Tropical Storm Irene. It is either one or the other.

Very confusing for those that can't go back and read thru the whole thread.

Scott

747 it's now Irene but barely a storm as shear continues to impact the system.There was some confusion earlier as there was not a clear picture if it would be upgraded or not but the 11 AM advisorie clearled it.

[ROCK]

and they still don't know its gonna be a fish...I am still at work but, when I get home i will make a new map with new thinking....maybe around 1pm cdt....

Even at the furtherst western edge of their cone they have it going no further west than Bermuda.

Dog your first map had it south of 20N 60W and NHC had it around 20N and 45W. Its a fish...

Dwg.....The sky is blue??...just seeing of you wanted to debate that.....

But seriously, I think its implied from the GET GO that the NHC is thinking Irene could be a US event done the road. If not why even keep tabs on it??

Trackwise it could lift out to sea. Climo suggests this would be the case at such a high lat. However, IMO, Irene/ TD 9 still has a chance to continue W, given its lack of organization and the ridge filling the void left by Harvey. 2 more days before I call it a fish...

They keep tabs on all systems in the Atlantic, whether they are a threat to US or not. Not trying to be difficult, just stating facts. All are entitled to their opinion, but we are entitled to argue that opinion if we feel it is baseless. If I was calling fish, when models, nHC, and climo were suggesting otherwise, I'd get drilled.

NHC keeps tabs on a fish for maritime interests, I'm sure. But for any system that forms in the deep tropics (from the GET GO) and has a track uncertainy as does TD 9 there is more of a focus on the impact to the US. I'm not sure how you could disagree to that line of thinking but you probalby will.

We all would get drilled if we totally went against all reason however I don't think my opinion or others that suggest a W- WNW track is baseless given the current set-up and uncertainy that even the NHC has mentioned.
Furthermore,the quote "give it up boys...its a fish" seems more so baseless that what was being discussed here. IMO...

[OtherHD]

Why do people get so upset if somebody says it's a fish? Why don't people get just as upset if someody says it's a US threat?

[Ivanhater]

Why do people get so upset if somebody says it's a fish? Why don't people get just as upset if someody says it's a US threat?

were not getting upset by someone thinking its a fish, its the fact someone saying it WILL be a fish, i would say the same thing to someone who says "give it up boys...its been a gulf storm from day 1"

[gkrangers]

I believe yesterdays 5AM Discussion, written by Stewart, discussed Irene missing the weakness in the ridge and proceeding more westward. This alternate track would have posed a threat to the SE US.

To say the NHC never entertained the idea of a US threat is incorrect.

[dwg71]

Why do people get so upset if somebody says it's a fish? Why don't people get just as upset if someody says it's a US threat?

were not getting upset by someone thinking its a fish, its the fact someone saying it WILL be a fish, i would say the same thing to someone who says "give it up boys...its been a gulf storm from day 1"

I'll eat crow if necessary, I have no problem with that. Yes anything could happen, it could go south and loop around South AMerica and hit Hawaii, but that isnt going to happen. I just hope everyone else who keeps the dream alive that this is a US mainland landfalling storm will come back and have a dish.

[dwg71]

I believe yesterdays 5AM Discussion, written by Stewart, discussed Irene missing the weakness in the ridge and proceeding more westward. This alternate track would have posed a threat to the SE US.

To say the NHC never entertained the idea of a US threat is incorrect.

I believe it was said there would be another weakness if it missed the first.