MJO

[AussieMark]

all that brown over Africa does that mean we will have less tropical waves emerge off Africa?

[Frank2]

I'm not an expert on MJO, but, I believe it means that if the theory is correct, there would be weaker tropical disturbances (or low pressure systems) exiting Africa.

If some here are correct, and "favorable" MJO conditions do not return to the Atlantic until at least mid-August, then, other issues would need to be considered as well - like the possibility of an early Fall season. In the past week, there have been two relatively strong cold fronts sweeping eastward across the U.S. - still a bit early, but, perhaps this is a sign of an early Fall season, which would impact the outcome of the Atlantic hurricane season.

In the end, the negative MJO might have a well-timed outcome, and is why I'm not convinced that NOAA's forecasted totals will become fact.

Frank

[TS Zack]

The MJO goes in 30-day cycles, therefore it is going in that cycle at the right time. The positive phase should be with us through the heart of the season, give a week or two of a negative phase.

The NAO has been positive until the last week when it has gone negative which results in more of a trough across the Eastern Seaboard. It is beginning to go more positive again.

[wxcrazytwo]

I'm not an expert on MJO, but, I believe it means that if the theory is correct, there would be weaker tropical disturbances (or low pressure systems) exiting Africa.

If some here are correct, and "favorable" MJO conditions do not return to the Atlantic until at least mid-August, then, other issues would need to be considered as well - like the possibility of an early Fall season. In the past week, there have been two relatively strong cold fronts sweeping eastward across the U.S. - still a bit early, but, perhaps this is a sign of an early Fall season, which would impact the outcome of the Atlantic hurricane season.

In the end, the negative MJO might have a well-timed outcome, and is why I'm not convinced that NOAA's forecasted totals will become fact.

Frank

Okay, keep telling yourself that...

[WeatherEmperor]

I'm not an expert on MJO, but, I believe it means that if the theory is correct, there would be weaker tropical disturbances (or low pressure systems) exiting Africa.

If some here are correct, and "favorable" MJO conditions do not return to the Atlantic until at least mid-August, then, other issues would need to be considered as well - like the possibility of an early Fall season. In the past week, there have been two relatively strong cold fronts sweeping eastward across the U.S. - still a bit early, but, perhaps this is a sign of an early Fall season, which would impact the outcome of the Atlantic hurricane season.

In the end, the negative MJO might have a well-timed outcome, and is why I'm not convinced that NOAA's forecasted totals will become fact.

Frank

Okay, keep telling yourself that...

I know. Id rather put my money on Dr.Gray and his years and years of experience.

<RICKY>

[Frank2]

Say what you folks want to say or believe, but, the pattern IS different from last season, in several ways.

With all due respect to those currently in the business, I'd be interested to know what those who I worked for in the 1980's (Stan Rosenthal, John Hope, Bob Sheets, etc.) would say about the current trends - since they were all more practical-minded in their thinking, I'll guess and say that they wouldn't be quite so eager to jump at the current extreme forecast carrot.

In fact, my first employer in the business was very much against the "crystal ball" approach to very long-term weather forecasting, citing that it created more tabloid-type material than anything - some of the posts on this board give validation to his comment.

Frank

[wxcrazytwo]

Say what you folks want to say or believe, but, the pattern IS different from last season, in several ways.

With all due respect to those currently in the business, I'd be interested to know what those who I worked for in the 1980's (Stan Rosenthal, John Hope, Bob Sheets, etc.) would say about the current trends - since they were all more practical-minded in their thinking, I'll guess and say that they wouldn't be quite so eager to jump at the current extreme forecast carrot.

In fact, my first employer in the business was very much against the "crystal ball" approach to very long-term weather forecasting, citing that it created more tabloid-type material than anything - some of the posts on this board give validation to his comment.

Frank

Dude, this is year is different than last year and in other years as well. However, much science has been done for NOAA to issue this kind of report. And not only that, but Dr. Gray has come up with the same kind f numbers. You just cannot disregard these kind of predictions. It is people like you who enforce the complacency people have when canes do come their, and when they hit you wonder why and why you were not informed earlier. I hear it all the time. Too much science behind the numbers..

[Andrew92]

I'm not an expert on MJO, but, I believe it means that if the theory is correct, there would be weaker tropical disturbances (or low pressure systems) exiting Africa.

If some here are correct, and "favorable" MJO conditions do not return to the Atlantic until at least mid-August, then, other issues would need to be considered as well - like the possibility of an early Fall season. In the past week, there have been two relatively strong cold fronts sweeping eastward across the U.S. - still a bit early, but, perhaps this is a sign of an early Fall season, which would impact the outcome of the Atlantic hurricane season.

In the end, the negative MJO might have a well-timed outcome, and is why I'm not convinced that NOAA's forecasted totals will become fact.

Frank

You have some good points and are knowledgeable in most of your posts. However, I can't help but disagree with this post about potentially "an early Fall." Do you know what the correlation is between the favorable MJO and an early Fall. I don't personally, but I'll tell you why I disagree.

I'm seeing that we are gradually getting back into the favorable MJO (seeing more green lines in the Atlantic, fewer brown lines). That doesn't mean we actually are in the heart of the favorable, just that conditions will get more favorable. However, right now, where I am in Northern Michigan, it is in the 90s today with high humidity, which is over 10 degrees above average for this time of year. While it is supposed to cool down some over the next couple days, it is then forecast to warm back up for at least the early part of next week.

I know those long-range forecasts need to be taken with a grain of salt, but I am not really thinking we're going to have an early Fall this year.

-Andrew92

[LSU2001]

I'm not an expert on MJO, but, I believe it means that if the theory is correct, there would be weaker tropical disturbances (or low pressure systems) exiting Africa.

If some here are correct, and "favorable" MJO conditions do not return to the Atlantic until at least mid-August, then, other issues would need to be considered as well - like the possibility of an early Fall season. In the past week, there have been two relatively strong cold fronts sweeping eastward across the U.S. - still a bit early, but, perhaps this is a sign of an early Fall season, which would impact the outcome of the Atlantic hurricane season.

In the end, the negative MJO might have a well-timed outcome, and is why I'm not convinced that NOAA's forecasted totals will become fact.

Frank

Lets see relatively strong cold fronts hmmmmmm, didn't charley's change of direction come from an early or late (depends how you look at it) cold front. I seem to remember record lows during july and aug. last year. I personally do not see the correlation between a couple of strong fronts and an early end to the season. I am not disagreeing that the season may be overhyped but I cannot see an early end when we have not even reached the usual peak of the season.
Just my 2 cents
TIm

[cycloneye]

Still some dry MJO is in the atlantic but the green lines in the pacific are about to come into the basin shortly.But it will be a slow proccess towards favorable conditions in the atlantic as I haved been saying from mid to late august and foward.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you cycloneye for updating mjo. I deleted the new thread I opened on MJO, as it was superfluous.
GFS I think it was seems to agree with you as it develops multiple systems around and after August 15th-17th

[TampaFl]

It appears that once that small area of brown over the Atlantic exits east, (this also could be affecting TD 9), then look out , the flood gates should open for develoment of a more active period (IMHO) in the Atlantic Basin.
Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[cycloneye]

Still the Atlantic is not favorable for an active period of cyclones although there is now Irene but look at how much time it has taken for that system to become a storm and a minimal one as it's fighting for it's survival thanks to the unfavorable conditions that the MJO is creating combined with the negative NAO but that factor is for another thread.Late August is when now I see things starting to look very favorable.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you cycloneye for MJO update

[Scorpion]

Blasted MJO. Is that what is creating all the ULL's??

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Maybe, since there's been lots of trough-age lately, that might faciliate ULL proliferation.

[Andrew92]

Still the Atlantic is not favorable for an active period of cyclones although there is now Irene but look at how much time it has taken for that system to become a storm and a minimal one as it's fighting for it's survival thanks to the unfavorable conditions that the MJO is creating combined with the negative NAO but that factor is for another thread.Late August is when now I see things starting to look very favorable.

I mostly agree, but I still think something will develop in the next couple of weeks. However, we will have to be patient for anything big to develop. I still have a feeling that in September, we will be in the favorable MJO and we may get a blockbuster hurricane. *coughNatecough* or *coughRitacough*

-Andrew92

[artist]

the lack of respect towards a former NHC employee here is really wrong. Do you guys truly think you know more than he does????
ALL opinions should be respected.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

By August 12, more favorable MJO seems to slip into E. Atlantic based on green?? Am I reading this right? And the Brown over Africa is replaced by the green over Africa?? Things could get going by 12th?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Also check out this monster wave over central africa:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... LATEST.jpg