TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- Ivanhater
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dwg71 wrote:ivanhater wrote:OtherHD wrote:Why do people get so upset if somebody says it's a fish? Why don't people get just as upset if someody says it's a US threat?
were not getting upset by someone thinking its a fish, its the fact someone saying it WILL be a fish, i would say the same thing to someone who says "give it up boys...its been a gulf storm from day 1"
I'll eat crow if necessary, I have no problem with that. Yes anything could happen, it could go south and loop around South AMerica and hit Hawaii, but that isnt going to happen. I just hope everyone else who keeps the dream alive that this is a US mainland landfalling storm will come back and have a dish.
thats the problem were not saying it WILL hit the east coast, the problem is you saying it WILL be a fish, you dont know that and shouldnt act like you do
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- Ivanhater
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ivanhater wrote:and with a center that changes more often than rupauls wardrobe, who is to say the center will not relocate further east, or south, or west. anyone who says it WILL be a fish or WILL hit the east coast or WILL go in the gulf are mistaken, no one KNOWS for sure and should not act like they do
this should answer the question about where the center is, your guess is as good as anyones
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- swimaster20
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The 5 AM Discussion from Stewart on 8/6
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005
TD-9 REMAINS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND THE INNER
CORE WIND FIELD HAS ACTUALLY IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH NO MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS APPARENT IN NIGHTIME
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON
THE TIGHTER INNER CIRCULATION...TWO CONSECUTIVE QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES
INDICATING NUMEROUS 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT...AND A CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1006.5MB ...EQUAL
TO ABOUT 33 KT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RECENTLY BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
INTO A CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE ABOUT 120 NMI AWAY
FROM THE CENTER...WHICH FURTHER SUGGEST IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13. THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND TURNED
MORE WESTWARD NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PROBLEMATIC IN
THAT IT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE INTENSITY...AND THEREFORE...THE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
THESE UNFAVORABLE SHEAR CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE TO A MINIMUM DURING THAT TIME. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARMER WATER
AND MORE STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND DEEPENING OF THE VERTICAL
CIRCULATION SHOULD OCCUR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BE
STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TOWARD AN
EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 55W-60W
LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM MOVES MORE WESTWARD AND STAYS
BELOW 20N LATITUDE THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN IT MAY NEVER FEEL THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND NOT TURN NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE ALREADY TOO FAR TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN A LITTLE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AFTER
THAT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR LEFT OR SOUTH AS THE UKMET MODEL.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INHIBITING FACTORS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
ABATE FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AFTER THAT SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH IN A
LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAN WHAT THE SHIPS MODEL USED. HOWEVER...
IF THE ACTUAL FORECAST ENDS UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THEN WARMER
WATER AND EVEN LESS VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 17.7N 41.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 43.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.8N 46.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 19.4N 48.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 20.1N 51.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 21.3N 54.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 57.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 59.5W 55 KT
$$
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005
TD-9 REMAINS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND THE INNER
CORE WIND FIELD HAS ACTUALLY IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH NO MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS APPARENT IN NIGHTIME
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON
THE TIGHTER INNER CIRCULATION...TWO CONSECUTIVE QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES
INDICATING NUMEROUS 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT...AND A CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1006.5MB ...EQUAL
TO ABOUT 33 KT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RECENTLY BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
INTO A CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE ABOUT 120 NMI AWAY
FROM THE CENTER...WHICH FURTHER SUGGEST IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13. THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND TURNED
MORE WESTWARD NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PROBLEMATIC IN
THAT IT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE INTENSITY...AND THEREFORE...THE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
THESE UNFAVORABLE SHEAR CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE TO A MINIMUM DURING THAT TIME. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARMER WATER
AND MORE STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND DEEPENING OF THE VERTICAL
CIRCULATION SHOULD OCCUR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BE
STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TOWARD AN
EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 55W-60W
LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM MOVES MORE WESTWARD AND STAYS
BELOW 20N LATITUDE THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN IT MAY NEVER FEEL THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND NOT TURN NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE ALREADY TOO FAR TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN A LITTLE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AFTER
THAT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR LEFT OR SOUTH AS THE UKMET MODEL.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INHIBITING FACTORS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
ABATE FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AFTER THAT SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH IN A
LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAN WHAT THE SHIPS MODEL USED. HOWEVER...
IF THE ACTUAL FORECAST ENDS UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THEN WARMER
WATER AND EVEN LESS VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 17.7N 41.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 43.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.8N 46.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 19.4N 48.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 20.1N 51.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 21.3N 54.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 57.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 59.5W 55 KT
$$
NNNN
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ivanhater wrote:dwg71 wrote:ivanhater wrote:OtherHD wrote:Why do people get so upset if somebody says it's a fish? Why don't people get just as upset if someody says it's a US threat?
were not getting upset by someone thinking its a fish, its the fact someone saying it WILL be a fish, i would say the same thing to someone who says "give it up boys...its been a gulf storm from day 1"
I'll eat crow if necessary, I have no problem with that. Yes anything could happen, it could go south and loop around South AMerica and hit Hawaii, but that isnt going to happen. I just hope everyone else who keeps the dream alive that this is a US mainland landfalling storm will come back and have a dish.
thats the problem were not saying it WILL hit the east coast, the problem is you saying it WILL be a fish, you dont know that and shouldnt act like you do
I'll stick my neck and take the bashing if neccessary. It IS a FISH, it WILL not hit US mainland.
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cinlfla wrote:Can someone please tell me where the center of this storm is I can't find it.
Looking at this http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
I would say that the center is in the lowest level clouds, just west of the 45° W line and north of the 20° N line.
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- Andrew92
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Scorpion wrote:They shouldnt have named this piece of rags. Now the famous I storm will be nothing.
And it's about time we get what looks like what will be a dud "I" storm.
If you want a hurricane to develop (which I think is absolutely preposterous unless it's a complete fish), you're just going to have to be patient. It's not time yet, but they will come.
-Andrew92
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Well, fish or no, it's a sure thing that Irene is already a history-maker: "IRENE IS THE EARLIEST NINTH NAMED STORM ON RECORD...BREAKING THE OLD MARK BY 13 DAYS. NORMALLY BY THIS DATE ONLY TWO NAMED STORMS HAVE FORMED." This season continues its surprises. She's a Cape Verde storm that is somehow surviving even though conditions do not really favor development. Gives one pause to think what this season will be like once conditions improve and basically open up the Cape Verde season.
On another note: just how many circulations does Irene have? I can definitely see 2 on the visible loop, but my eyes aren't well-trained so I can't really tell which is mid-level and which is on the surface. She's struggling, for sure.
On another note: just how many circulations does Irene have? I can definitely see 2 on the visible loop, but my eyes aren't well-trained so I can't really tell which is mid-level and which is on the surface. She's struggling, for sure.
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- wxwatcher91
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
the intensity will remain 40mph through 11am tomorrow (8/8). Irene is nearing warmer water which will help it along a little. moderate shear will continue through the next 72 hours.
45mph intensity will be reached tomorrow (8/8) evening. from there slow but steady intensification will take place allowing for the NHC to up the intensity 5mph every other advisory. Hurricane strength will be reached sometime Thursday.
the track is the most uncertain part of the forecast.
At this point I think the NHC cone is good up to day 4 (Thursday). At that point I think the ridge will build back in keeping Irene to a WNW-NW (around 300* to 310*) track for the next 24 to 48 hours instead of it recurving out to sea. This will bring Irene to 100 to 200 miles SE of Bermuda.
Even that is going out further than I feel comfortable with and I think only the next 24 hours can be forecasted with much confidence... actually even that is uncertain considering center adjustments.
Summed up: Everyone along the east coast should be watching Irene closely.
the intensity will remain 40mph through 11am tomorrow (8/8). Irene is nearing warmer water which will help it along a little. moderate shear will continue through the next 72 hours.
45mph intensity will be reached tomorrow (8/8) evening. from there slow but steady intensification will take place allowing for the NHC to up the intensity 5mph every other advisory. Hurricane strength will be reached sometime Thursday.
the track is the most uncertain part of the forecast.
At this point I think the NHC cone is good up to day 4 (Thursday). At that point I think the ridge will build back in keeping Irene to a WNW-NW (around 300* to 310*) track for the next 24 to 48 hours instead of it recurving out to sea. This will bring Irene to 100 to 200 miles SE of Bermuda.
Even that is going out further than I feel comfortable with and I think only the next 24 hours can be forecasted with much confidence... actually even that is uncertain considering center adjustments.
Summed up: Everyone along the east coast should be watching Irene closely.
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- Ivanhater
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here is a good view of tracking the center..there are a couple if centers but the main one for NOW is the one further west
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html
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The little WV convection feature just east of the Lessers is moving in a west-heading flow. This means the steering flow a little south of Irene is west.
The very dry area ahead of Irene probably contains the High that is sending that little convection feature west.
The ULL/trough synoptic above Irene is relaxing.
Irene should continue 275-280*.
The strong ULL off the Bahamas is so strong it looks like it could dig down. This feature will probably break a path for recurve in front of Irene...
The very dry area ahead of Irene probably contains the High that is sending that little convection feature west.
The ULL/trough synoptic above Irene is relaxing.
Irene should continue 275-280*.
The strong ULL off the Bahamas is so strong it looks like it could dig down. This feature will probably break a path for recurve in front of Irene...
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- Ivanhater
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Sanibel wrote:The little WV convection feature just east of the Lessers is moving in a west-heading flow. This means the steering flow a little south of Irene is west.
The very dry area ahead of Irene probably contains the High that is sending that little convection feature west.
The ULL/trough synoptic above Irene is relaxing.
Irene should continue 275-280*.
The strong ULL off the Bahamas is so strong it looks like it could dig down. This feature will probably break a path for recurve in front of Irene...
at this point it doesnt matter, the center keeps popping up in different places it very hard to know whats gonna happen, i think she likes playing peek a boo with us, if the "center" remains naked it should go with the low levels and possibly make the wsw movement like yesterday, recurvature is the most likely scenario right now but again with all the changes and twists and turns this one is extremely difficult
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I wonder if this could be a Nova Scotia storm. Luckily Canada avoids most
of this stuff; but every now and again something like Hurricane Juan will
hit....Juan did a lot of damage as I recall; think it was a cat 2
on landfall.
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/juan/
of this stuff; but every now and again something like Hurricane Juan will
hit....Juan did a lot of damage as I recall; think it was a cat 2
on landfall.
http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/juan/
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