MJO

[shaggy]

yeah but that wave is still way out there and has along time to change before reaching the atlantic so its just going to be quiet unless something forms closer to home

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AV/200 ... 0AV1_g.jpg

[Frank2]

The current Meteosat loop indicates a very quiet eastern Atlantic this afternoon - click on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg to view.

With the MJO still negative, combined with the long-term weakness in the subtropical ridge (probably not a weakness in one ridge, but as the NHC mentioned, the ridge is in to parts - an eastern ridge and western ridge, with a substantial weakness (or trough) at 50W), I'll guess that very soon some forecasters will begin to wonder if this season will be a repeat of 2004, or will "just" be a record season in terms of numbers alone.

While it is a record season in terms of numbers, so far the count stands at 9-2-2 (with the past 4 systems Franklin, Gert, Harvey and Irene (as of today) never reaching hurricane status) - far from the end-of-season totals forecast by CSU and NOAA, though I should mention that last year at this time the count was 2-1-1.

Frank

[wxwatcher91]

I am starting to wonder how big this season will get too... I dont doubt we will see many many more tropical storms but as you mentioned Frank, we have only seen 2 hurricanes so far and the past 4 systems have not reached hurricane status...

the thing that I keep thinking though, is Arlene (70mph), Cindy (70mph), Franklin (70mph), and now Harvey (65mph) have all come mighty close to hurricane status... we COULD be at 9-6-2 if 3 of these systems had 4mph faster winds and one of them 9mph faster winds.

[WeatherEmperor]

I am starting to wonder how big this season will get too... I dont doubt we will see many many more tropical storms but as you mentioned Frank, we have only seen 2 hurricanes so far and the past 4 systems have not reached hurricane status...

the thing that I keep thinking though, is Arlene (70mph), Cindy (70mph), Franklin (70mph), and now Harvey (65mph) have all come mighty close to hurricane status... we COULD be at 9-6-2 if 3 of these systems had 4mph faster winds and one of them 9mph faster winds.

we got a long way to go. dont be surprised to see what September might throw at us.

<RICKY>

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

But was I reading the MJO chart right when it says green over africa and eastern atlantic by aug 12? See my post near bottom of page 6 of this thread.

[WeatherEmperor]

But was I reading the MJO chart right when it says green over africa and eastern atlantic by aug 12? See my post near bottom of page 6 of this thread.

I also read from other members here that the MJO should be becoming positive around the Aug12th date that you mentioned. So perhaps next week they mean it will become positive since an exact date wouldnt be pinned down accurately.

<RICKY>

[wzrgirl1]

yes somebody showed a map a few days ago of the MJO coming into it's positive phase somewhere around August 16th....I have back tracked and could not find the thread with that specific post in it....but I do remember reading it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

ok good I read it right. Thank you all for the clarifications

[WeatherEmperor]

yes somebody showed a map a few days ago of the MJO coming into it's positive phase somewhere around August 16th....I have back tracked and could not find the thread with that specific post in it....but I do remember reading it.

by the way Miramar is better then Pembroke Pines. hah!

<RICKY>

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

yes somebody showed a map a few days ago of the MJO coming into it's positive phase somewhere around August 16th....I have back tracked and could not find the thread with that specific post in it....but I do remember reading it.

by the way Miramar is better then Pembroke Pines. hah!

<RICKY>

Tampa Bay is even better LOL....

[WeatherEmperor]

I wouldnt know. Havent been the Tampa in a loooong time. Gotta check it out sometime.

<RICKY>

[Jim Hughes]

Say what you folks want to say or believe, but, the pattern IS different from last season, in several ways.

With all due respect to those currently in the business, I'd be interested to know what those who I worked for in the 1980's (Stan Rosenthal, John Hope, Bob Sheets, etc.) would say about the current trends - since they were all more practical-minded in their thinking, I'll guess and say that they wouldn't be quite so eager to jump at the current extreme forecast carrot.

In fact, my first employer in the business was very much against the "crystal ball" approach to very long-term weather forecasting, citing that it created more tabloid-type material than anything - some of the posts on this board give validation to his comment.
Frank

Frank,

Once again..you bring stability to an unstable topic. I can also chuckle a little since I did not start this post nor have I inflamed anyone by bringing in other factors.

It's fairly obvious that people tend to subliminally get caught up in the season and especially this season because of all of the pre-season hype. So they tend to see everything from one side of the fence.

The MJO is an important factor but it is not the only factor. Earlier in the season the catch phrase was the SST's. Now it seems to be the MJO but in a few weeks time it will be something else and then before you know it everyone will be sitting around wondering why wasn't the season as busy as some expected....20/10/6...or some higher....

This season is much different from last year. It started much earlier... the ratio is different ...the individual forecasts themselves were underestimating strengths in July and then they started overestimating their intensity forecasts . Irene's current strength is just a recent example.

It's quite obvious that neither the atmosphere nor the people can make up there minds about what lies ahead. All I see is turmoil from my perspective and most of it is with all these forecasts.



Jim

[Ivanhater]

heres a brilliant idea, lets not even discuss whether or not this season will meet the forecast of 20 storms until the season is over! no one and i mean no one knows if it will or not, im going to go with the experts of around 20 because they know more than anyone on this board, so for the people who just go with which way the wind blows at a certain time can keep on going, we will know when its all over whether the season Will continue to break records

[Jim Hughes]

yes somebody showed a map a few days ago of the MJO coming into it's positive phase somewhere around August 16th....I have back tracked and could not find the thread with that specific post in it....but I do remember reading it.

I could not argue with anyones perspective regarding a more favorable MJO phase change, compared to what it has been recently , around August 16th or slightly there after. Mind you this still does not mean a return of the July activity level ...percentage wise.

In other words we would have to see everything turn into a hurricane or a major for that matter if you used July's activity level as a slide rule.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I wonder if a brief burst of july type activity is possible in september with everything hitting the water exploding. The SSTs and favorable MJO may make it possible in my prediction, but I really don't know for sure.

[Jim Hughes]

no one and i mean no one knows if it will or not, im going to go with the experts of around 20 because they know more than anyone on this board.

That is sort of a contradictory statement isn't it ? If no one knows for sure than why would you give anyone the title of expert ?

I have no idea how old you are but do you even know how long it took Bill Gray to get respect ? It never really came about until the media jumped on board in the early to mid 90's.

I have a copy a New York Times article around here from the late 70's and Gray was pretty much roasted by governmental weather officials in regards to his methods...whats my point?

NOAA puts out it's own forecast so they obviously see flaws in Gray's methods. Gray gets backing from insurance industries... etc... with cold hard cash. So they obviously see something that they like in Gray or they could just listen to NOAA's outlook for free.

So they must have different opinions, about each others outlooks , within both the business community and the government. Now throw in some others....meteorologists...climatologists....mathematicians... and you could have an argument on your hands about whether anyone should be crowned an expert over all others.

[Frank2]

Re: Jim Hughes post

This season is much different from last year. It started much earlier... the ratio is different ...the individual forecasts themselves were underestimating strengths in July and then they started overestimating their intensity forecasts. Irene's current strength is just a recent example.

Yes, and as the NHC has mentioned many times, proof once again that intensity forecasting in meteorology is still very inaccurate.

I was thinking about this whole issue this morning, and, I believe that the NHC should stay with their primary role of forecasting tropical cyclones that are on the map, not those that are many months away, and in fact, this was the thinking at NOAA for many years.

However, once the CSU forecasts became popular, pressure increased on NOAA to accept these methods, and forced them to come up with their own very long term products.

However, there is one very big problem with this type of forecast - in a sense, the forecaster is forced to make a pledge to the public that a given season will behave a certain way, which is wonderful if it turns out exactly as they say it will, however, if it doesn't, the public will blame the profession for not knowing what it's talking about.

Frank

[Seele]

Yes, and as the NHC has mentioned many times, proof once again that intensity forecasting in meteorology is still very inaccurate.

I was thinking about this whole issue this morning, and, I believe that the NHC should stay with their primary role of forecasting tropical cyclones that are on the map, not those that are many months away, and in fact, this was the thinking at NOAA for many years.

However, once the CSU forecasts became popular, pressure increased on NOAA to accept these methods, and forced them to come up with their own very long term products.

However, there is one very big problem with this type of forecast - in a sense, the forecaster is forced to make a pledge to the public that a given season will behave a certain way, which is wonderful if it turns out exactly as they say it will, however, if it doesn't, the public will blame the profession for not knowing what it's talking about.

Frank

People will blame the profession for being wrong anyway. That's just how it is with an inexact science. The next area of forecasting outside of just forecasting what is on the map is longer range forecasts. Obviously, these will have a lower accuracy rate, but they have been surprisingly pretty close. The only way to get better with these forecasts is to produce them and learn from your mistakes. You could argue if they should be sent to the public, but I really don't see the harm. No one is saying "Well last year they predicted 15 storms and there were only 11. I'm not listening to anything they say". If they are, well, that's what Darwin awards are for

[wxwatcher91]

the dry MJO is basically forming again in the Atlantic!
just when we thought the wet MJO was moving in the dry MJO has cut it off...

[Frank2]

I understand what you are saying, and it's true that long-range models are now better functioning, but, the problem is that these long-range predictions often get confused with the tabloid-style predictions of those trying to predict world events months and years from now, and is why in the past, NOAA meteorologists were not eager to get their profession caught up in this - I believe that for many years (fortunately, while I was with them) they were right in staying away from this area.

I can't tell you how many comments I've heard from those I know in the local area, concerning the earlier long-range forecast of a busy 2005 hurricane season. Since CSU's early predictions were released in early December, some were already concerned about this summer before last Christmas! In my mind, this creates worry that should never have been - why create these concerns over something half a year away - concerns over something that could possibly never take place?

Frank

P.S. Here are our two current tropical "storms" - note how both have something in common (an exposed circulation):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

over the weekend, it was somewhat amusing to hear the local and cable media show these two weak systems, while commenting that "we are continuing on a record pace this hurricane season" - I guess they're afraid that the story will lose momentum - either that, or they just don't know what else to say at this point!