irene forecast #1

[deltadog03]

ok, well i for one have been relying on a W or WNW path in the short term due to the fact the storm has been moving that way pretty much during the day. however, every morning its been shown to either pushed north or redeveloped north. This is almost always eliminated the Wstd push during the day. I have shifted the path more to right due to the fact that this has occured the last 3 days now. I am NOT saying this will be a fish or a US landfall either way. I have NEVER said which way for sure anyway.

Short term forecast confidence: good
Extended forecast confidence: poor

This could go either way right now...i am leaning more towards a fish but, I am not rulling out a W track at the end with the building ridge...hope yall like it...comment PLZ!!



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[WeatherEmperor]

seems about right. looks more likely that Irene will get caught up in the weakness in the ridge.

<RICKY>

[dwg71]

ok, well i for one have been relying on a W or WNW path in the short term due to the fact the storm has been moving that way pretty much during the day. however, every morning its been shown to either pushed north or redeveloped north. This is almost always eliminated the Wstd push during the day. I have shifted the path more to right due to the fact that this has occured the last 3 days now. I am NOT saying this will be a fish or a US landfall either way. I have NEVER said which way for sure anyway.

Short term forecast confidence: good
Extended forecast confidence: poor

This could go either way right now...i am leaning more towards a fish but, I am not rulling out a W track at the end with the building ridge...hope yall like it...comment PLZ!!



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You said this is definately not a fish storm...many times...check your posts.

[WindRunner]

Not bad short-term, but I would have made up my mind and curved it to around 280 or to 340 degrees later in the period. That straight of a track seems a little unlikely.

[ROCK]

ok, well i for one have been relying on a W or WNW path in the short term due to the fact the storm has been moving that way pretty much during the day. however, every morning its been shown to either pushed north or redeveloped north. This is almost always eliminated the Wstd push during the day. I have shifted the path more to right due to the fact that this has occured the last 3 days now. I am NOT saying this will be a fish or a US landfall either way. I have NEVER said which way for sure anyway.

Short term forecast confidence: good
Extended forecast confidence: poor

This could go either way right now...i am leaning more towards a fish but, I am not rulling out a W track at the end with the building ridge...hope yall like it...comment PLZ!!



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You said this is definately not a fish storm...many times...check your posts.

here we go again........

the earth is round. Be sure to hold me to that....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

this storm is driving me nuts with its fickleness

[deltadog03]

well, i have changed tunes here somewhat only because of the LLC redeveloping north everynight....

[beachbum_al]

Like the map. Easy to read. Don't know where it is going either.

[Air Force Met]

well, i have changed tunes here somewhat only because of the LLC redeveloping north everynight....

Yeah...but when you say something is definite...that should take all of that into account...right?
It's really no different than someone like me calling it a fish since day one...only to get people upset that some of us have called it fish. The only difference is...people don't want to hear that it is a fish...so they get upset and say "you can't say that for sure...why are you saying such an irresponsible thing..." OF course on the other hand...most people don't say that when you say it's definitely NOT a fish...

Am I the only one that has noticed this?

[deltadog03]

i agree with what you were saying...i don't remember ever saying it was def...not a fish...I might have...if so, ok...but, the fact of the matter is I am not for sure...It could very well go either way...or hell just go poof...

[WeatherEmperor]

well, i have changed tunes here somewhat only because of the LLC redeveloping north everynight....

Yeah...but when you say something is definite...that should take all of that into account...right?
It's really no different than someone like me calling it a fish since day one...only to get people upset that some of us have called it fish. The only difference is...people don't want to hear that it is a fish...so they get upset and say "you can't say that for sure...why are you saying such an irresponsible thing..." OF course on the other hand...most people don't say that when you say it's definitely NOT a fish...

Am I the only one that has noticed this?

Im on your side with this argument. Alot of the time people allow their personal feelings to cloud their better judgement. Im not casting stones on any of the members here at Storm2k but it is something to be noted. I too felt this would be a fish but found it difficult to supress my emotions so I somehow tried to convince myself it would not be a fish. As it turns out, my better judgement was correct.

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

well, i see both of your points...my forecast is pretty close to NHC in the short term...I am just not convinced that the weakness will either be there or irene will get caught in it...

[du1st]

the models are showing a possible loop.

[WeatherEmperor]

the models are showing a possible loop.

if that happens, im gonna flip out.

<RICKY>

[ROCK]

well, i have changed tunes here somewhat only because of the LLC redeveloping north everynight....

Yeah...but when you say something is definite...that should take all of that into account...right?
It's really no different than someone like me calling it a fish since day one...only to get people upset that some of us have called it fish. The only difference is...people don't want to hear that it is a fish...so they get upset and say "you can't say that for sure...why are you saying such an irresponsible thing..." OF course on the other hand...most people don't say that when you say it's definitely NOT a fish...

Am I the only one that has noticed this?

I have noticed it however I think the majority of us ARE saying the right thing. Forecasting is just that Forecasting. No matter who the MET is, they are not going to be right 100% of the time.... As a MET I am sure you are required to follow some sort of code/code of ethics as it relates to informing the public on the weather?? yes?? "I" being part of that public would not want to be mis-informed on a system as screwed up as TD 9 is from Day 1.