TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

They shouldnt have named this piece of rags. Now the famous I storm will be nothing.

Why is this an issue? Do you really worry about such things?

Thats only the tip of the iceberg. Its unfortunate his vacation was not permanent.

oh ya, i remember the comment he made that got him the vacation.

[sma10]

Why do people get so upset if somebody says it's a fish? Why don't people get just as upset if someody says it's a US threat?

This argument seems crazy to me. One side says the NHC has indicated fish the whole time, and the other side says the NHC has indicated potential US threat the whole time. Both sides are wrong, and that's what is so great about the forecasters at the NHC. They are inherently unbiased and conservative. When a storm is 10 days or more from possible impact with land they only worry about the 5 day window. Sure, their 5 day forecast SEEMS to suggest recurve, but not necessarily. They forecast a NW heading in 5 days----but that's it. Thereafter, it probably will continue a recurve, but there is semblance of doubt. The Euro model for example, forecasts a stall in the vicinity of 30N 67W in 7 days. Where does it go from there if that model verifies?

Go back and read every discussion from TD9. Nowhere will you find even a hint at whether this system has ever been a threat to land; AND nowhere will you find a hint that this system is destined to be only a threat to maritime interests.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A wave??? NO way in heck it is a wave take a look.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

Thats a LLC...

[cycloneye]

07/1745 UTC 20.7N 46.0W T1.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean


No surprise that the SSD Dvorak T numbers are very low for a system that is supposed to be a Tropical Storm as the low center is removed from convection once again.

[WeatherEmperor]

Will Irene even be able to survive all this?

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050807 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050807 1800 050808 0600 050808 1800 050809 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.8N 46.0W 21.0N 47.0W 21.4N 48.1W 21.8N 49.1W
BAMM 20.8N 46.0W 21.2N 47.4W 21.6N 48.7W 21.9N 49.8W
A98E 20.8N 46.0W 21.6N 47.7W 22.3N 49.0W 23.3N 50.1W
LBAR 20.8N 46.0W 21.2N 47.4W 22.3N 48.9W 23.1N 50.4W
SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 38KTS 41KTS
DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 38KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050809 1800 050810 1800 050811 1800 050812 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 50.4W 24.5N 54.3W 27.0N 59.0W 29.2N 61.6W
BAMM 22.3N 51.2W 23.9N 55.0W 26.1N 59.0W 28.0N 61.5W
A98E 24.5N 51.3W 27.5N 54.0W 30.7N 56.2W 32.3N 53.7W
LBAR 24.4N 51.6W 28.3N 53.5W 32.7N 51.8W 33.3N 45.0W
SHIP 44KTS 52KTS 56KTS 55KTS
DSHP 44KTS 52KTS 56KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.8N LONCUR = 46.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 44.2W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 42.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Well the 18:00z Model Guidance hangs on Irene barely.

[wxman57]

Irene is definitely a depression now, just a low-level swirl. I think it WAS a TS earlier today, but the convection died 2 hours before it was upgraded. Center appears to be moving toward about 300 degrees now, too. Not likely a threat to anyone, even the fish.

[Ivanhater]

shouldnt it move with the low level flow then?

[sma10]

Irene is definitely a depression now, just a low-level swirl. I think it WAS a TS earlier today, but the convection died 2 hours before it was upgraded. Center appears to be moving toward about 300 degrees now, too. Not likely a threat to anyone, even the fish.

Since Irene is definitely a depression now, I suppose we'll see a downgraded advisory at 5pm then?

[WeatherEmperor]

Irene is definitely a depression now, just a low-level swirl. I think it WAS a TS earlier today, but the convection died 2 hours before it was upgraded. Center appears to be moving toward about 300 degrees now, too. Not likely a threat to anyone, even the fish.

Yup I agree with you. Irene does not look very good right now and shouldnt be a problem.

<RICKY>

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There will not be a down grade because of the quickscat showing 40 to 45 knot winds earlier this morning. In plus they got nothing really to base a down grade on. Because it moves out from the convection doe's not mean its that much weaker wind wise at least at first. They will wait intill the next quickscat to come in. As for this system it was likely a tropical storm for the better part of 12 hours last night.

[Ivanhater]

i tell you, if someone who hasnt been tracking the center and looked at this for this first time would think the center was the spin further south at the convection

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[Andrew92]

Perhaps there will have to be another re-location with time? We shall see....

-Andrew92

[wxmann_91]

They're not going to upgrade the storm and then downgrade it at the next advisory without a reasonable excuse (e.g. Recon - which is out of the equation, Quikscat, ship reports, etc.), no matter how ragged Irene looks.

[wxman57]

Irene is definitely a depression now, just a low-level swirl. I think it WAS a TS earlier today, but the convection died 2 hours before it was upgraded. Center appears to be moving toward about 300 degrees now, too. Not likely a threat to anyone, even the fish.

Since Irene is definitely a depression now, I suppose we'll see a downgraded advisory at 5pm then?

I can't tell if you're just being sarcastic or if you're seriously asking me that question, but I can tell you that 18Z Dvorak estimates are 1.0. Not only would that make it a depression, but a weak depression with 20kt winds:

07/1745 UTC 20.7N 46.0W T1.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

The T1.0 is current intensity estimate.

Personally, I've been studying hurricanes for over 40 years, and a provessional met for 25 of those years. I dont' need a quickscat pass to tell me when a TS loses all of its convection and is merely a swirl of low clouds that it is no longer a TS.

But, as to your question, I'd be HIGHLY surprised if the NHC downgraded Irene to a TD on the next advisory. As I stated in my 9am CDT forecast to our customers, I think it'll fluctuate between TD/TS intensity for the next 24 hours. I see no point in downgrading it, then upgrading it, then downgrading it every 6 hours.

By the way, I place the center at 19.9N/46.4W at 2:24pm CDT. Here's that satellite image with 1 deg lat/lon lines. Well-defined low-level swirl, but hardly a shower near the center any more.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene27.gif

Here's an enhanced IR shot on which I've circled the center in red. As you can see, no squalls anywhere near the center, and almost no squalls anywhere now. It's a TD:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene28.gif

[Air Force Met]

dont be suprised if a temporary wsw movement takes place today with the low exposed right now

Or a northwest motion...which is what's happening. As I said in the TD 9 thread, this is most probably a fish. It would take an extra-ordinary set of meteorological circumstances to keep it from beng a fish...and those aren't in place. No...the NHC hasn't called it a fish per say...but if you look at the track...especially from day 4 to 5...it's obvious that that is what they think...and have thought for some time.

I think a lot of people on this forum need to stop trying to find out something that will make it do what they want...and just look at the data. You can say that climo has been busted this year...but climo for storm totals is different than climo for tracks. There is a reason that no storm in the history of record keeping has been where Irene is now and never hit the CONUS...except one storm...Ester in '61...which went over cape cod.

There's usually a reason things do happen. It doesn't mean it can't...but there is a reason is won't. It's never gotten below 0 in Houston since records were kept...doesn't mean it can't happen...but that some extra-ordinary set of circumstances...something enver seen before...has to happen. Same with this system making it all the way to the CONUS.

So...when people say it's too early to say if it is a fish or not...they really need to back it up with some extra-ordinary meteorological data...something that is SOOO unusual that will allow this to occur...because that's what you need to make something happen that has never happened before...Especially now that the LLC is moving more to the NW.

So until I see something setup I've never seen before...I have to keep with climo. Most amatuers don't like to hear that...but any seasoned forecaster will tell you...you don't forecast records or things that have never happened because most of the time (not all...records happen all the time)...you will come up on the losing end of that equation. You better see the data to back it up.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is quite an unpredictable storm Been teasing us all week long

[Andrew92]

This is quite an unpredictable storm Been teasing us all week long

I thought all females were like that.

However, it does appear that her being a fish is at least 97% likely to happen.

-Andrew92

[clfenwi]

Yeah, NHC seems to prefer continutity over 100% accuracy in setting intensity. If they set it at TS strength at 11 and it looks like it will be a TS in the near future, they tend to not downgrade because imagery (or observations even) show a TD. As wxman57 suggests, the continuity approach helps them avoid yo-yoing every six hours.

Looks like the wnw curve has been tightening more to the northwest in the past hour or so. Wonder if the storm has come under the influence of the 850 millibar anti-cyclonic circulation depicted in the 12Z GFS analysis:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_000m.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is quite an unpredictable storm Been teasing us all week long

I thought all females were like that.

-Andrew92

LOL!!!