TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Normandy]

Wow it definitely has two discernable centers, question is which one wins out.

[ROCK]

Wow it definitely has two discernable centers, question is which one wins out.

good question. Im leaning towards the NW center but who knows. TD 9 is fighter I give it that......

[Ivanhater]

dont be suprised if a temporary wsw movement takes place today with the low exposed right now

Or a northwest motion...which is what's happening. As I said in the TD 9 thread, this is most probably a fish. It would take an extra-ordinary set of meteorological circumstances to keep it from beng a fish...and those aren't in place. No...the NHC hasn't called it a fish per say...but if you look at the track...especially from day 4 to 5...it's obvious that that is what they think...and have thought for some time.

I think a lot of people on this forum need to stop trying to find out something that will make it do what they want...and just look at the data. You can say that climo has been busted this year...but climo for storm totals is different than climo for tracks. There is a reason that no storm in the history of record keeping has been where Irene is now and never hit the CONUS...except one storm...Ester in '61...which went over cape cod.

There's usually a reason things do happen. It doesn't mean it can't...but there is a reason is won't. It's never gotten below 0 in Houston since records were kept...doesn't mean it can't happen...but that some extra-ordinary set of circumstances...something enver seen before...has to happen. Same with this system making it all the way to the CONUS.

So...when people say it's too early to say if it is a fish or not...they really need to back it up with some extra-ordinary meteorological data...something that is SOOO unusual that will allow this to occur...because that's what you need to make something happen that has never happened before...Especially now that the LLC is moving more to the NW.

So until I see something setup I've never seen before...I have to keep with climo. Most amatuers don't like to hear that...but any seasoned forecaster will tell you...you don't forecast records or things that have never happened because most of the time (not all...records happen all the time)...you will come up on the losing end of that equation. You better see the data to back it up.

if your quoting me and saying im trying to figure out different scenarios of how this will hit the u.s then you need to read all my posts as i have stated i think this is a fish and im not sold either way, and i said COULD TEMPORARILY move wsw, so and it is not moving northwest, its wnw, if you were not referring to me then excuse this post

[Normandy]

Anyone else noticing a slight Fujiwara effect with these two centers....they seem to be rotation around each other.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yeah! That effect is really awesome

[Ivanhater]

Anyone else noticing a slight Fujiwara effect with these two centers....they seem to be rotation around each other.

maybe its irene's split personality battling her

[Normandy]

Its going to be really interesting to see which center wins out....if the NW one wins its def a FISH, if the southern one wins than it might have a better chance at missing the weakness. They both look quite vigorous as its easy to spot both....

Remember the NHC mentioning if Irene stays below 20N she could miss the weakness....well that southern center is below 20N and heading wsw. I think the determining factor will be which one has confection fire closest to it.

[superfly]

The southern one is a MLC I'm pretty sure.

[Ivanhater]

Its going to be really interesting to see which center wins out....if the NW one wins its def a FISH, if the southern one wins than it might have a better chance at missing the weakness.

dont say that, some people might think your just trying to figure out anything so that it will hit the u.s

[Normandy]

The southern one is a MLC I'm pretty sure.

Id agree but it is a vigoruous MLC, and i think it has a weak surface reflection.

dont say that, some people might think your just trying to figure out anything so that it will hit the u.s

Oh no, theyd call me a w!shcaster!?!?! cries....most people that call people people I disagree with are usually NHC worshippers that are afraid to state their own opinions on things (that is of course unless someone is blatantly -removed- and everyone notices it).

[gkrangers]

The southern one is a MLC I'm pretty sure.

Id agree but it is a vigoruous MLC, and i think it has a weak surface reflection.

It'll fade, there will be no battling of centers.

[Normandy]

The southern one is a MLC I'm pretty sure.

Id agree but it is a vigoruous MLC, and i think it has a weak surface reflection.

It'll fade, there will be no battling of centers.

Perhaps it will, but there are obviously two centers with it right now. Well just have to see.

[ROCK]

dont be suprised if a temporary wsw movement takes place today with the low exposed right now

Or a northwest motion...which is what's happening. As I said in the TD 9 thread, this is most probably a fish. It would take an extra-ordinary set of meteorological circumstances to keep it from beng a fish...and those aren't in place. No...the NHC hasn't called it a fish per say...but if you look at the track...especially from day 4 to 5...it's obvious that that is what they think...and have thought for some time.

I think a lot of people on this forum need to stop trying to find out something that will make it do what they want...and just look at the data. You can say that climo has been busted this year...but climo for storm totals is different than climo for tracks. There is a reason that no storm in the history of record keeping has been where Irene is now and never hit the CONUS...except one storm...Ester in '61...which went over cape cod.

There's usually a reason things do happen. It doesn't mean it can't...but there is a reason is won't. It's never gotten below 0 in Houston since records were kept...doesn't mean it can't happen...but that some extra-ordinary set of circumstances...something enver seen before...has to happen. Same with this system making it all the way to the CONUS.

So...when people say it's too early to say if it is a fish or not...they really need to back it up with some extra-ordinary meteorological data...something that is SOOO unusual that will allow this to occur...because that's what you need to make something happen that has never happened before...Especially now that the LLC is moving more to the NW.

So until I see something setup I've never seen before...I have to keep with climo. Most amatuers don't like to hear that...but any seasoned forecaster will tell you...you don't forecast records or things that have never happened because most of the time (not all...records happen all the time)...you will come up on the losing end of that equation. You better see the data to back it up.

I thought posting your opinion regardless of reasoning was allowed on here.

That being said, I have seen many posts that do show some sort of reasoning in regards to the future track of TD 9. Though some might be off in left field at least there is an effort by amatuers to learn WHY pro-mets like yourself disagree.

BTW- it did snow on x-mas 04....

[clfenwi]

Concur with gkrangers.

The 'spin' that is south of 20° and east of 45° W is a sheared off mid-upper level circulation that is now disconnected from the meat of the storm. It may keep spinning for awhile, but it will have nothing to do with the movement of Irene... whose center I approximate to be located at 21.5 N 46.5 W.

[Ivanhater]

exactly, and im not sure if he was referring to me, because i would be the LAST person to want it to come to the u.s as i have experienced first hand the hell of going through a hurricane, and i would not want anyone to go through what we did in pcola the night of sept 16th...but i agree, all opinions are welcomed here

[Astro_man92]

The southern one is a MLC I'm pretty sure.

Id agree but it is a vigoruous MLC, and i think it has a weak surface reflection.

It'll fade, there will be no battling of centers.

Perhaps it will, but there are obviously two centers with it right now. Well just have to see.

I really have know idea what you are talking about because I only see one well defined center

[wxman57]

I was wondering what everyone was looking at with respect to the two centers. I actually see three. Look down at 14.5N/49W and you'll see a clear low-level eddy moving to the NNE at a rapid clip. The spin southeast of Irene's center is not at the surface, it's mid-level as has been stated. The main center will continue to be the one near 21.0N/46.6W. Seems to be moving almost 300-310 degrees now and at a rapid clip.

[Astro_man92]

look here I only see 1 LLC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

[wx247]

Wow...such bitterness. Let's keep discussing!

Thanks for the update wxman57.

[Ivanhater]

look here I only see 1 LLC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

we are talking about the spin to the southeast

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html