TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WindRunner]

I think the swirl to the SE is too weak, it'll probably be "ignored" by the NHC. (a little opinion here) Overall, Irene looks a lot worse than at 12Z, and I'd say Irene's appearence will progressively worsen over next 18-24hrs because of the 20kts+ of shear she is about to go under. By the time she reemerges from the shear, she will be over 28C SSTs and progressively less shear whether she goes N or W, so a steady strengthening should occur.

[clfenwi]

Watching chan 4 IR it looks like the convection associated with the sheared off MLC is dying out and there are very slight hints at convection beginning to appear in the 'right' place...around the LLC...

[Astro_man92]

oh ya I also see three circulations one is near the botton of the image near 15 lat 50 long it is not part of Irene I think and it looks as if it is working its was at Irene and I do see that Extra currculation over Irene it looks as if it is dieing out

[wxman57]

Here's a shot upon which I've identified the 3 circulations:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene29.gif

[Astro_man92]

I think the swirl to the SE is too weak, it'll probably be "ignored" by the NHC. (a little opinion here) Overall, Irene looks a lot worse than at 12Z, and I'd say Irene's appearence will progressively worsen over next 18-24hrs because of the 20kts+ of shear she is about to go under. By the time she reemerges from the shear, she will be over 28C SSTs and progressively less shear whether she goes N or W, so a steady strengthening should occur.

What is that currculation (I think) near the bahamas ?????? I don't see Irene on there either

[Astro_man92]

Here's a shot upon which I've identified the 3 circulations:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene29.gif

Ya those are the ones that I saw

[Ivanhater]

Here's a shot upon which I've identified the 3 circulations:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene29.gif

i dont think the mid level circulation is moving wnw as you have indicated, i think its moving wsw

[WindRunner]

Here's a shot upon which I've identified the 3 circulations:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene29.gif

Well, that LLC you point out is a seperate wave, or at least that is how it is mentioned in the TWD I believe.

[gkrangers]

Astroman, the circulation near the Bahamas is a vigorous upper level low.

[Astro_man92]

Here's a shot upon which I've identified the 3 circulations:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene29.gif

i dont think the mid level circulation is moving wnw as you have indicated, i think its moving wsw

It looks to me as if it is moving ESE other wise the system is moving and that cirrculation is stationary

[Astro_man92]

Astroman, the circulation near the Bahamas is a vigorous upper level low.

oh thank you

[elysium]

The thing that a lot of people are not taking into consideration is that the NHC and the rest of the meteorlogical community are taking what will probably be their last weekend off for some time. No one wants to rock the boat and even suggest anything other than that there is no need to be overly concerned about Irene. The weekend is the worst possible time to try to aquire updated model guidance since really, we are not talking about weather machines but weathermen and women who control the data that is being processed. Yes, there is a skeleton crew on hand, but no one wants to put out information that might suspend his colleage's time off. There will be plenty of time to adjust the forecast on Monday if necessary.

The NWS is also almost non-existant on weekends unless there is something out there within a reasonable proximity to land.

Irene may find the weakness and recurve. More likely, however, on Monday, we will begin seeing new guidance introduced that will give more creedence to the subtropical ridge as Harvey accelerates out of the picture. What you will never see on this Sunday is a 5 day track that accounts for the possibility of an abrupt turn to the west or west-southwest on day 4 or 5. You may see this tomorrow or Tuesday, but never on this Sunday. You might hear mention, though, of a possible erratic course or of some of the models hinting at anti-cyclone.

One of the posters here presented his scenario for Irene in 3 days from now, showing how Irene would move up into the weakness, but in order for Irene to do so, it entailed that the weakness in the rige remain in a static, stationary position. We all know that the ridge weakness is moving out in tandem with Harvey which is accelerating northeastward. We also know that the subtropical ridge is filling in briskly. We know that the ridge will be reinforced from the northwest and that traditionally, ridges that build in this time of year are extremely formidable, while weaknesses often wane.

It's a certainty that the scenario just outlined detailing a sharp turn to the west will gain serious credibility on Monday, and will likely be the official forecast on Tuesday. There is no way that Irene is going to recurve. By Wednesday we may even see forecasts presented that include within them the possibility of Irene heading W.S.W. for a short time. We might even be seeing the no recurvatue forecasts now if the entire crew was on hand, but it is not. Allow the full staff of the NHC to sit down, along with the NWS. Give them the opportunity to assimilate all pertinent data. If you do this before rushing to ill conceived judgments without all the facts, you might find, surprisingly, that not every hurricane turns to fish.

[Astro_man92]

Here's a shot upon which I've identified the 3 circulations:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene29.gif

Well, that LLC you point out is a seperate wave, or at least that is how it is mentioned in the TWD I believe.

are you sure it is a wave because it looks to be moving NE twords Irene. But then again what do I know I'm not even an amature yet

[Air Force Met]

This is quite an unpredictable storm Been teasing us all week long

Actually it's been pretty well behaved and has followed the forecast track. If you take out center reformations and the like...it's right where it's supposed to be...so overall...it's been pretty predictable. It hasn't bombed out...and wasn't forecast to...it's moved WNW as it has been forecasted to do. All the NW motion is the center reforming.

[Sanibel]

Lifting now. Guess the trough did get it after all.



Out to sea. 2004 pattern obliterated...

[Astro_man92]

It's a certainty that the scenario just outlined detailing a sharp turn to the west will gain serious credibility on Monday, and will likely be the official forecast on Tuesday. There is no way that Irene is going to recurve. By Wednesday we may even see forecasts presented that include within them the possibility of Irene heading W.S.W. for a short time. We might even be seeing the no recurvatue forecasts now if the entire crew was on hand, but it is not. Allow the full staff of the NHC to sit down, along with the NWS. Give them the opportunity to assimilate all pertinent data. If you do this before rushing to ill conceived judgments without all the facts, you might find, surprisingly, that not every hurricane turns to fish.

I hope it doesn't move WSW or else it might move through the Caribbean and we might have to deal with another cat 3, 4, or 5

[deltadog03]

wow, i leave for a bit and all heck breaks looks...lol...its funny, some of you on here are like die heart NHC fans and think they do no harm...When I make these forecast it comes with exp. (not professionaly yet)...im not biased or -removed- this thing...hell, i live in TX...im just stating that most global models love to over predict weakness, trofs, what ever...Sure, it could very very well go out to sea. but, it might not as well...All I am saying is that i have my opinions just like the next joe blow anywhere, including NHC...so, give those who don't agree with the NHC some slack..don't just bash them...thanks

[wxman57]

The thing that a lot of people are not taking into consideration is that the NHC and the rest of the meteorlogical community are taking what will probably be their last weekend off for some time. No one wants to rock the boat and even suggest anything other than that there is no need to be overly concerned about Irene. The weekend is the worst possible time to try to aquire updated model guidance since really, we are not talking about weather machines but weathermen and women who control the data that is being processed. Yes, there is a skeleton crew on hand, but no one wants to put out information that might suspend his colleage's time off. There will be plenty of time to adjust the forecast on Monday if necessary.

The NWS is also almost non-existant on weekends unless there is something out there within a reasonable proximity to land.

Irene may find the weakness and recurve. More likely, however, on Monday, we will begin seeing new guidance introduced that will give more creedence to the subtropical ridge as Harvey accelerates out of the picture. What you will never see on this Sunday is a 5 day track that accounts for the possibility of an abrupt turn to the west or west-southwest on day 4 or 5. You may see this tomorrow or Tuesday, but never on this Sunday. You might hear mention, though, of a possible erratic course or of some of the models hinting at anti-cyclone.

One of the posters here presented his scenario for Irene in 3 days from now, showing how Irene would move up into the weakness, but in order for Irene to do so, it entailed that the weakness in the rige remain in a static, stationary position. We all know that the ridge weakness is moving out in tandem with Harvey which is accelerating northeastward. We also know that the subtropical ridge is filling in briskly. We know that the ridge will be reinforced from the northwest and that traditionally, ridges that build in this time of year are extremely formidable, while weaknesses often wane.

It's a certainty that the scenario just outlined detailing a sharp turn to the west will gain serious credibility on Monday, and will likely be the official forecast on Tuesday. There is no way that Irene is going to recurve. By Wednesday we may even see forecasts presented that include within them the possibility of Irene heading W.S.W. for a short time. We might even be seeing the no recurvatue forecasts now if the entire crew was on hand, but it is not. Allow the full staff of the NHC to sit down, along with the NWS. Give them the opportunity to assimilate all pertinent data. If you do this before rushing to ill conceived judgments without all the facts, you might find, surprisingly, that not every hurricane turns to fish.

I'm not sure what you're talking about. The model data do not take the weekend off. We get the same data whether it's a weekend or a weekday.

[clfenwi]

A couple of notes on the shear situation:

1. Even in an ideal position/track Irene would still have more than 10 knots of upper level shear to deal with. Not debilitating, to be sure, but a bit much to allow anything more than modest strengthening.

2. Mid-level shear situation doesn't look good for Irene in the near term:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

That said, Irene has proven to be a hardy fighter in the face of adversity, so she may beat my expectations, but right now I see nothing more than gradual modest intensification.

[Ivanhater]

actually the people who said it was a fish and the people who said it was an east coast storm could be both wrong as it might just die