Amateur Forecast for Irene - 5:00 PM EDT Aug 7

[wxmann_91]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Storm Irene Advisory 12
2:00 PM PDT Aug 7 2005 (5:00 PM EDT or 21Z Aug 7 2005)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For official forecasts...please refer to the NHC. This is an independent product.

Please remember...hurricanes can be very unpredictable and can make sudden changes and/or shifts in both track and intensity.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Irene has lost most of her convection this afternoon. There are multiple centers apparent on the last visibles of the day...and the overall organization of Irene is poor. Indeed, Irene may dissipate within the next 24 hours...as shear and dry air are continuing to impact Irene. Should Irene survive...inhibiting factors affecting it right now are forecast to abate within 48 hours...and Irene is moving into warmer waters. Though I have slackened off the intensity forecast some...the forecast is still similar to the previous one...making Irene a minimal hurricane by the end of the forecast period.

The track forecast remains similar to the previous one as well...similar to the BAM models...though a bit north of the previous track. Though the threat to the United States and the Antilles has diminished somewhat...the track now takes to the southeast of Bermuda near the end of the forecast period.

Forecaster Tang


Hour Position Intensity
--------------------------------
Initial 21.1N 46.5W 35 kt
12 hr 21.5N 47.7W 35 kt
24 hr 21.8N 48.9W 35 kt
36 hr 22.4N 50.4W 40 kt
48 hr 23.1N 52.4W 45 kt
72 hr 24.5N 55.6W 50 kt
96 hr 26.0N 58.9W 60 kt
120 hr 28.8N 62.1W 65 kt

Track:

[gkrangers]

I think you may be too far to the south with the forecast track. Also..you really can't say it might dissipate in 24 hours, then make it a minimal hurricane in 120 hours. Indicating strengthening would be ok, but probably more in the 45-50kt range, if you are going to include the possibility of it dissipating.

[storm4u]

track looks good to me! I would shift it a little bit farther north though! But you could be on target! good job

[wxmann_91]

I think you may be too far to the south with the forecast track. Also..you really can't say it might dissipate in 24 hours, then make it a minimal hurricane in 120 hours. Indicating strengthening would be ok, but probably more in the 45-50kt range, if you are going to include the possibility of it dissipating.

I implied that Irene could do one of two things: dissipate within the next 24 hours, or strengthen to a minimal hurricane. It strengthens to a hurricane if it doesn't dissipate.

I was thinking of being less bullish, but donsutherland1 still maintains his forecast of becoming a hurricane, so I will let that remain there, and I will trim the intensity down if necessary for the next advisory.

As for the part about being too far south, well I'm hoping for no more reformations of the center to the north of the original. Should that not happen, I truly believe that my forecast isn't too far south.

EDIT Thanks guys for the comments!

[WindRunner]

I'm with you, the aim at bermuda has been picked up by some models at varying times, and though it may or may not hit there, it's a good general direction through 96-120hrs.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks very good but could be a slight bit further north.

<RICKY>

[EDR1222]

Looks like a good forecast. Irene doesn't have much going for her right now.

[LaBreeze]

Do I hear the old song in the distance - "Goodnight Irene?" Is there not much hope for her?

[wxmann_91]

BTW no forecast tonight FYI.

[Swimdude]

I highly doubt a hurricane will come of Irene.