When will this season get REALLY active?

[Ivanhater]

IMHO this is a lull, but it's not because nothing hit land. There can be five fish out in the Atlantic that are major hurricanes and that's not a lull, but five in a month that hit land but are TS's, and that is a lull. Look at all the potential developers over the last few weeks, and only four developed, and all were TS's, none were hurricanes. The lull is caused somewhat by the SAL but moreso by the ULL's that crisscross the Atlantic (refer to NHC's Irene disco at 11:00 AM). Whether this has anything to do with the MJO I don't know, but there is an interesting correlation between the MJO and the reduced activity.

the amazing thing is we consider a lull when only 1 or 2 tropical cyclones roam the basin, if were were to look into the future pre 2004 to this season we would think the basin is very active, we have not had many days without a cyclone in the Atlantic since arlene!! so if this is a "lull" then i would hate to think what qualifies for "active"

[Hurricaneman]

IMHO this is a lull, but it's not because nothing hit land. There can be five fish out in the Atlantic that are major hurricanes and that's not a lull, but five in a month that hit land but are TS's, and that is a lull. Look at all the potential developers over the last few weeks, and only four developed, and all were TS's, none were hurricanes. The lull is caused somewhat by the SAL but moreso by the ULL's that crisscross the Atlantic (refer to NHC's Irene disco at 11:00 AM). Whether this has anything to do with the MJO I don't know, but there is an interesting correlation between the MJO and the reduced activity.

the amazing thing is we consider a lull when only 1 or 2 tropical cyclones roam the basin, if were were to look into the future pre 2004 to this season we would think the basin is very active, we have not had many days with a cyclone in the Atlantic since arlene!! so if this is a "lull" then i would hate to think what qualifies for "active"

We may find out in the next couple of weeks

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Or by Wednesday-Friday of this week if the MJO shifts as it is forecasted to do.
IMO I think we're in for a big surprise late this week with regards to activity in the tropics and big storm development
Monster wave to emerge off Africa in 2.5 days. MJO shift may correspond to aug 10-12, so this wave could become a big story into next weekend in the Atlantic, and the two waves already in the basin may get their acts together given MJO shift late this week. If Irene survives now, this new pattern may allow it a brief period of intensification late this week.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

bump what do y'all think about my little prediction ^^

is it plausible, or am I crazy?

[Ivanhater]

bump what do y'all think about my little prediction ^^

is it plausible, or am I crazy?

i think your right, like i said if were in a "lull" right now, i would hate to get into an "active" period, right now we are just beginning the ramp up phase

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have to admit that big cluster over Africa is starting to signal to me a concern, especially since conditions will be favorable for development this late week once it hits the water.

[Astro_man92]

ok I'm going to say either this week or next week when ever the SAL clears out if it hasn't already

[gatorcane]

It won't be like last year...in fact usually an active early season like we have had so far produces an inactive later season. I think this will hold and we will see many fish storms this year.

[wxmann_91]

Well apparantly NHC still thinks an active peak of the season...just look at the NHC homepage and go to the "Top News of the Day" (which is at the top).

[WeatherEmperor]

IMHO this is a lull, but it's not because nothing hit land. There can be five fish out in the Atlantic that are major hurricanes and that's not a lull, but five in a month that hit land but are TS's, and that is a lull. Look at all the potential developers over the last few weeks, and only four developed, and all were TS's, none were hurricanes. The lull is caused somewhat by the SAL but moreso by the ULL's that crisscross the Atlantic (refer to NHC's Irene disco at 11:00 AM). Whether this has anything to do with the MJO I don't know, but there is an interesting correlation between the MJO and the reduced activity.

Its easy for you to say cause you live in California. Its never truly a lull for those who live in hurricane prone areas whether they live on the gulf coast or all the way up the atlantic coast. its never a real lull until things are really quiet in the tropics.

<RICKY>