TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Astro_man92]

As I've been saying, the convection with the old MLC continues to fade out while new convection fires up on the western side of the LLC that is well to the northwest of the old MLC.

My thoughts exactly.

Agreeing highly lol

[wxman57]

What elysium is saying is that the better forecasters are not there to collect the data as well, so the data initialized into the models is not of the same quality as it is during the week, and so the outputs are not of the same quality. Continuity (due to lack of better info) might also be a large part of why the forecast hasn't varied much. This track is not that well defined because the regular mets haven't seen it since the first run (became TD at 5pm on Friday - I'd be well on my way home by the time the TWO came out!). Just wait for some better runs to come out at 12Z tomorrow, and then take the models seriously.

And I would disagree that the "better forecasters" take the weekend off, so what comes out on weekends cannot be trusted. That's just not true. There may be some administrative personnel that take weekends off, but the same forecasters are there on weekends that are there during the week. Generally, meteorologists work rotating shifts, perahaps 6 days on with 4 days off (2 days, 2 swings, 2 nights is common). Most mets don't work M-F regularly. So your theory has no basis in fact.

[WindRunner]

And I don't say that they are. Just that if your best sat analyzer takes the weekends off, then the data you use from sats will not have been analyzed as well and your forecasts will not be as hi-qual as they could have been.

Okay... I've gotta step in here...

To say that the best forecasters or satellite analyzers have the weekends off is bogus. As a professional met myself, I can assure you that the "best forecasters" aren't scheduled any particular shift, especially a day job.

On the majority, and including the NHC and NWS, meteorologists are shift workers. Some days they are working a day shift... some days they are working a swing (evening)... some days they are working a mid (overnight). The life of a meteorologist knows no normal life. We're always rotating.

As AFM said, you never know what given forecaster is working and their specific strengths or weaknesses.

The forecasters' shifts are pretty much at chance... they don't specifically schedule the better forecasters during the week. These same great forecasters are the same people who are leaving their own families during Christmas dinner just to make sure the job/mission is completed.

As for the "normal day forecasters"... there aren't any. "Day-weenies," as they are affectionately referred to, are staff people... the managers. They have no hand at what's being forecasted... they just care that it's forecasted and it's done well. It's not the managers' job to second-guess their forecasters thoughts.

As for the NHC not being about to coordinate with NWS during the weekends... I wouldn't call it coordination. The NHC has the role of forecasting all cyclones in the Atlantic basin, as directed by the WMO. The NWS listens to what the NHC has to say. There really is no coordinating, unless it involves foreign nations.

As for model data... there isn't a difference between a Wednesday or a Sunday. It's all computerized.

I was just stating a possibility and never stated anything on coordination of services. The model I was thinking of was the Dvorak technique (not a model, I know). I though that was computer run as well, but I was told otherwise in a previous topic about a week ago. I never try to start arguments like this, I was trying to help by explaining elysium's point of view in the topic. I'm done explaining and completely understand what everyone is telling me about the shifts and models.

[wxman57]

It's not that they aren't as good, but that they don't have quite the experience in pulling data off of quickscats and TRMMs and such, providing a weaker initialization for the models.

I think you'd better give up, WindRunner. You clearly have no idea what you're talking about as far as meteorological scheduling.

[WindRunner]

Would everyone quit pulling old quotes out! I know I said them, but (as I have admitted) I was misinformed at the time and understand what everyone is saying now.

[wxman57]

Will do, WindRunner. By the way, I notice it's some rookie named James Franklin working the forecast desk at the NHC. Just can't get good help on weekends.

[WindRunner]

Will do, WindRunner. By the way, I notice it's some rookie named James Franklin working the forecast desk at the NHC. Just can't get good help on weekends.

Ha ha, I noticed too.

[Ivanhater]

i meant people who think it will curve away to sea

[Mac]

Please let me preface this statement by saying that I am NOT suggesting that the best forecasters work Monday through Friday. The point of my comment is to merely discuss why I can understand how a person might BELIEVE the best forecasters work Monday through Friday.

It would be a logical assumption to believe that, prior to becoming administrators, the NHC administrators were first forecasters. And if they have more experience as both forecasters and administrators than the newer forecasters, it stands to reason that they would be more knowledgable and wise. Now, this may or may not be true, but consider this analogy:

You recently discover you have cancer, and you need to go to a doctor. If you are interested in going to a doctor who has been trained in the most recent technological advances in medicine, you would probably want to go to a doctor who has more recently graduated and learned the latest medical treatments. But if you want to go to a wise doctor, you might want to seek out a physician who has been practicing for decades. He may not be as up-to-date on the latest medical advancements, but his length and breadth of experience have given him true wisdom. And wisdom is often, in the end, more valuable than knowledge.

Again, I'm not saying this scenario pans out with the NHC. I am merely pointing out how a person might reasonably believe that the best (wisest) NHC staff work Monday through Friday.

[Andrew92]

Alright, alright.....

This thread is about Irene, not a debate about meteorological scheduling. Can that either be kept to PM's or a different thread?

Thank you. I am trying to learn from mets why Irene is doing what she is doing and what she is going to do in the future.

-Andrew92

[senorpepr]

I was just stating a possibility and never stated anything on coordination of services. The model I was thinking of was the Dvorak technique (not a model, I know). I though that was computer run as well, but I was told otherwise in a previous topic about a week ago. I never try to start arguments like this, I was trying to help by explaining elysium's point of view in the topic. I'm done explaining and completely understand what everyone is telling me about the shifts and models.

Not trying to attack here... that's not my purpose. I'm here to educate. The folks doing the Dvorak technique are in the same boat as the mets (since they are mets) mentioned before. The folks at SAB and TAFB rotate just like normal mets, although I specifically don't know their schedule rotation. However, I can say that the AFWA mets performing the Dvorak technique also work an unusual schedule. (I say that with confidence since they work about 50yds from my office) They may not rotate from days to swings to mids like the common met does, but they do rotate what day of the week they work. They are not a M-F worker either. One week they may have a weekend off... they may not see another weekend off for a month or two. (Typically they'll work a four shifts on; two shifts off schedule)

[WindRunner]

I agree. So anyone seen the latest quickscat 40 and 45 knot vectors in several locations, as well as a center at about 19.6N 44.0W. That many 40 knots would be enough for upgrade with a better appearance.

[cycloneye]

Alright, alright.....

This thread is about Irene, not a debate about meteorological scheduling. Can that either be kept to PM's or a different thread?

Thank you. I am trying to learn from mets why Irene is doing what she is doing and what she is going to do in the future.

-Andrew92

Yes Agree 100%.Let's focus again of Irene and discuss all about the present and future of this storm with the help from our resident pro mets.

[senorpepr]

I agree. So anyone seen the latest quickscat 40 and 45 knot vectors in several locations, as well as a center at about 19.6N 44.0W. That many 40 knots would be enough for upgrade with a better appearance.

The problem with that image is it's old. About 15 hours old... (based off the QS timestamp)

Regardless... their upgrade earlier does make since based on this image...

[mahicks]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I just got home from 12 hours of work and I noticed TD 9 got a name...BUT...

Is it just me, or is she heading WSW right now? I'm talking about the actual little bit of convection thats left.

I could really care less about her though...Maby I'll eat crow, but she seems like she is DOA.

Would a long shift of WSW have any impact on her building back up? Right now she looks like a TD.

Singing "come on Irene" Instead of Come on Eileen.....LOL

[Ivanhater]

ok people

for amateurs: respect what the pros are saying as they have good incite, you do not have to agree with that they are saying but dont act like you know more than they do

for pros: stop acting like like 8 year olds by getting into a ridiculous argument, i understand some comments need to be addressed , but do it in a respectful manner and act "professional"

thats my humble opinion and im going to act my age by talking about whats going on with irene, so with that said , back to irene

[WindRunner]

I agree. So anyone seen the latest quickscat 40 and 45 knot vectors in several locations, as well as a center at about 19.6N 44.0W. That many 40 knots would be enough for upgrade with a better appearance.

The problem with that image is it's old. About 15 hours old... (based off the QS timestamp)

Regardless... their upgrade earlier does make since based on this image...

Funny, that was what the NRL had, recent quickscats must have missed. Oh well.

edit: The NRL page listed the recent pass as 849Z and the next at 2113Z, but that should have been here an hour ago.

[elysium]

The burst of convection that you see associated with the northern LLC is stemming from its interaction with the southern LLC. It is clear in the last frame that the dominant center is to the south, and that the northern LLC is being stripped out and will not likely be around a lot longer.

Now, the southern circulation has not yet fully entrenched at the surface yet, so technically it is not the main LLC at this hour. It is, though, clearly working its way to the surface with the main body of heavy convection supporting it. What i don't know is whether or not the northern LLC will race forward and dissipate, or be absorbed into the intensifying circulation to the south. It's hard to tell which direction the southern LLC is motioning. It looks a little north of due west, but hard to tell.

Anyway, the reason this is happening in the first place is due to the resolute subtropical ridge. Irene is reforming her LLC under it, and we should see more of a westward heading followed by a turn more to the W.N.W. and back west again.

This is just a guess based on incomplete data and not an official forecast as such.

[Air Force Met]

Please let me preface this statement by saying that I am NOT suggesting that the best forecasters work Monday through Friday. The point of my comment is to merely discuss why I can understand how a person might BELIEVE the best forecasters work Monday through Friday.

It would be a logical assumption to believe that, prior to becoming administrators, the NHC administrators were first forecasters. And if they have more experience as both forecasters and administrators than the newer forecasters, it stands to reason that they would be more knowledgable and wise. Now, this may or may not be true, but consider this analogy:

You recently discover you have cancer, and you need to go to a doctor. If you are interested in going to a doctor who has been trained in the most recent technological advances in medicine, you would probably want to go to a doctor who has more recently graduated and learned the latest medical treatments. But if you want to go to a wise doctor, you might want to seek out a physician who has been practicing for decades. He may not be as up-to-date on the latest medical advancements, but his length and breadth of experience have given him true wisdom. And wisdom is often, in the end, more valuable than knowledge.

Again, I'm not saying this scenario pans out with the NHC. I am merely pointing out how a person might reasonably believe that the best (wisest) NHC staff work Monday through Friday.

I understand what you are saying...and to some extent that is true. The NHC is different though. Even the director works weekends sometimes. They are all on call and work when they are needed. The director doesn't just clock out at 5 pm on Friday and say "see you monday guys." Same thing in the local offices with the MICs. When something is important...they are there. They may or may not be the best forecasters too. Just because you are in charge doesn't mean you are the top forecaster in the shop. I've worked private sector meteorology as well as military...and I can ASSURE you the guys in charge 9-5/M-F are not the best there.

One possible exception is maybe the military (as Senorpepr can probably attest). The station chiefs (showing my age...but we will always be station chiefs to me...)... the Chief of Weather Ops (which is what I am in today's lingo) are usually Monday - Friday day workers...and work on weekends when needed because of a severe weather event...etc. These guys are usually more talented forecasters, not always, but most of the time...due to extreme experience. When I was coming up in the ranks, the station chief was THE MAN who could forecast you into the dirt without breaking a sweat...and he worked MOnday - Friday. Again...this is the way it used to be and still is at some locations. Those senior NCO's (AF and Navy) know their stuff and are very good forecasters. Every one I have ever known could outforecast any one of my met profs at A&M (with the possible exception of Steve Lyons...who I have watched forecast (when not restrained by TWC) and is very good at what he does...when he is allowed to do it).

[gkrangers]

ok people

for amateurs: respect what the pros are saying as they have good incite, you do not have to agree with that they are saying but dont act like you know more than they do

for pros: stop acting like like 8 year olds by getting into a ridiculous argument, i understand some comments need to be addressed , but do it in a respectful manner and act "professional"

thats my humble opinion and im going to act my age by talking about whats going on with irene, so with that said , back to irene

I don't see any mets acting like 8 year olds.

People are making attrociously stupid comments this afternoon, and the mets are informing the misinformed...