It used to be fun.....

[AL Chili Pepper]

Agree totally. They're good, and have really improved over the last 5-10 years.

[WeatherEmperor]

I wonder if there ever will be a time where we can almost perfectly forecast a hurricanes path.

<RICKY>

[EDR1222]

I agree. They are getting better and better through the years at forecasting these things.

[Astro_man92]

I doubt we will ever perfectly predict EVERY storm

[Brent]

Weather forecasting will NEVER be perfect.

[kevin]

Nope, it can't be. Its an impossibility to predict everything within a system where your calculations effect the arrangement of parts. The earth is way too complex and we can never escape that. What meteorologists have been able to do is better sample the atmosphere and better understand the processes that go on in large and small scale.

[M_0331]

Having been an engineer for 25 years and on the team that needs 24 hours to shutdown a 40 $MM plant in Wilmington and later in Charleston. NHC just could not cut it for us. I don't hold anything ill feelings about NHC, it was the nature of our plant needs that we had to shut down and not be hit 9 out of 10 times and suffer $ production loss. There is much
to do with forecasting -FLOYD prove that.
Eddie

[Swimdude]

I agree completely. It kinda sucks!

[dixiebreeze]

Great responses on this thread. I do think the NHC and related teams are awesome for the most part.

And, I think it's incredible that citizens have so much instant access to all of the weather-related websites, satellites, etc., via the Internet.

[djones65]

The NHC is truly AWESOME!!! I agree with you dixie... years ago when I was at FSU in the middle 1980's I believe there were numerous times when the NHC would play "catch-up" and change the forecasts frequently, but the last 10 years or so, the NHC almost always has the situation clearly deciphered and analyzed.
Perhaps in weak systems that are in the genesis stage they are subject to frequent errors as evidenced by Cindy earlier this year, but once a system is established I think the days of "outthinking" the professionals are gone.
The NHC has done an incredibly good job the last several years.
There are some slight discrepancies such as was pointed out previously when Emily was downgraded to a cat 2 in the Caribbean prematurely, although the forecast track was spot-on. And occasionally overnight the system's can become "lost" like I believe Irene was last night (August 6th) and Avila projected a farther west position than was actual.
I still try though, but overall the NHC proves that I have to end up eating lots and lots of crow... LOL

[Jim Cantore]

I love when I come up with an absurd forcast and I wind up right

I did that with Ivan last year when they said it was following Charley I thought it was gonna go quite a bit further west

I was in my glory until Jeanne

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

All I got to say they are not really that good at telling how strong or weak a system will be. They messed up on Irene. They should of seen that SAL all around it. I do say Dennis was a suprize to me as it was moving at Florida panhandle.

[Jim Cantore]

They really messed up irene in 1999 that was supposed to go into the gulf

[Patrick99]

I agree. They are too good. Very weak systems they may struggle with on occasion.......but with those events, who really cares anyway?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There main problem is they use the Gfs to much. Like Ivan was forecasted to move into southeastern Florida for days. It turns out it moved into the GULF COAST.

[djones65]

Matt,
I totally disagree with you...
Why should they have predicted "Irene" to fall apart like it did on Friday, August 5?
Why?
The system was in the middle of the SAL when it began strengthening...
During its genesis when the depression stage was beginning it had plenty of convection and banding although the circulation center was broad and not defined, but the SAL appeared to be deflected if you will....
Yes, WV imagery showed extremely dry air all around the system yet it continued to increase convection and banding on Thursday, August 4.
Therefore, it was reasonable to assume that some mechanism was in place "protecting" it from the dry air. I believe the system's womb was very fragile and allowed it to intensify until a well defined center of circulation formed and moved northwesterly towards the lower pressures over the east central Atlantic. It was a "fragile" environment, but one which was allowing development initially.
I disagree and do not believe the NHC "should have known" it would fall apart. I believe that was a given knowing that the SAL had enveloped most of the tropical Atlantic, but up until August 5, Irene's womb protected it until it moved north of 14N latitude. That would be difficult to forecast ahead of time given its satellite presentation on August 4.

If I or anyone else had said, "TD#9 will fall apart due to the SAL overnight and early morning August 5" most of you guys would have crucified me and pointed to the fact that it hadn't affected it previously.

Therefore, I believe the NHC made a good forecast, albeit one that could fall apart if the dry air became entrained which is what eventually happened. But go back and look at the imagery on August 4... all of us or most of us was predicting a HUGE Cape Verde hurricane to form as it had a monstrous circulation with frequent banding.

Sorry for rambling, but I would like to know who predicted TD9 to fall apart and where were you when the posts were being made?
Lastly, EVERYONE knew the SAL was in place across the tropical Atlantic.
But we couldn't account for the satellite presentation of Irene's genesis. Therefore there was some mechanism in place that was "protecting" it from the dry stable air. As Lixion Avila stated at 15UTC August 5, "what little we know about tropical cyclone genesis." Suddenly the mechanism that was protecting it collapsed and the system lost its convection.

My point is, using Irene's retardation in intensification is not a very good example to use to justify how the NHC is fallible.

A better example of NHC's fallibility would be Invest 92L, eventual tropical storm Harvey, when they were predicting marked intensification over the northeast Caribbean when most people could see the upper level shear from the 200 mb low to its north and the dry air in place.