TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

It's underneath the ridge. Harvey is rapidly evacuating. Looks west from here.

haaa im not being mean, but you crack me up, i mean that in a good way

[WindRunner]

Interesting to note that all models (including GFDL) show strengthening 36-48hr interval.

GFDL has been killing off the storm with 48 hours for the past two runs:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080717

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080723

Edit: on second look, that's the GFDI, it looks like it with text on top of it.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png

[WeatherEmperor]

doesnt look like the models have changed all that much.

<RICKY>

[swimaster20]

OK just stating something here, not saying it's a fish and not saying its a US threat. (Wanted to say this first )

Between the new model runs and the 4 PM advisory Irene's center supposedly moved .2 clicks north and .6 clicks west.

[clfenwi]

Why do I feel like I am watching an instant replay of 24 hours ago (or so)?

[WindRunner]

I wonder if you can call it a wobble when it's a min TS. Ummm, I don't think you can.

[wxman57]

use the hi res QS. it has 12.5km resolution, far better than the 25 you showed there

as for the models that colostate uses, looks like those come directly from the ATCF file, which is what I use for model guidance

The high res QS image is old, too. That image is so small I can hardly see it, too. This PC runs 1900x1200 resolution native, so even 1024x768 images look like thumbnails.

[WeatherEmperor]

OK just stating something here, not saying it's a fish and not saying its a US threat. (Wanted to say this first )

Between the new model runs and the 4 PM advisory Irene's center supposedly moved .2 clicks north and .6 clicks west.

good point. i really wish somebody could come on and explain to us their best estimate of current motion right now to see if the models are doing a great job or not. for now i have confidence in them but i would like an explanation.

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

lol...make it the past 3 days
everynight it likes to move west or so...then redevelop north....irene..you silly goose....

[swimaster20]

lol...make it the past 3 days
everynight it likes to move west or so...then redevelop north....irene..you silly goose....

Yep, thats true lol

[Ivanhater]

Why do I feel like I am watching an instant replay of 24 hours ago (or so)?

im telling you she likes to pull suprises at night, she moves almost west during the evening then relocate further north over night..instant replay indeed

[WindRunner]

lol...make it the past 3 days
everynight it likes to move west or so...then redevelop north....irene..you silly goose....

So I think that since night and day are pretty equal in length, we can average a NW direction?

[deltadog03]

prolly around 300 when you avg it...i mean it could change tonight...who knows at this point

[cycloneye]

Why do I feel like I am watching an instant replay of 24 hours ago (or so)?

In other words more replays like that means out to sea more rapid.

[WindRunner]

Certainly does.

[wxman57]

It can be very deceiving trying to ascertain movement of such a weak system at night with IR imagery. The motions of mid and high-level clouds can trick your eye. Currently, an earlier burst of convection on the western side of the center is moving off to the south. This may make it LOOK like the center may be tracking west. But if you ignore the mid and high clouds and try to focus on the low-level cloud elements using certain IR enhancement curves, you can see the lower cloud elements still tracking WNW. Irene sure looks weak! It's almost too pitiful looking to be called a TD now. I think the NHC has to downgrade it at 10pm.

[Derek Ortt]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bds100.png

the surface circulation may be near 17.5N and 48W. There is only a trough axis farther north, with TS winds

[Ivanhater]

hey pros, take a look at this, maybe yall can help, im not sure if the weakness is that slot that is closing up, and there seems to be sinking air to the north of it, indicative of dry air i know, but possible ridge over it? im not sure what to think

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[WindRunner]

They might downgrade, but considering they upgraded on Dvorak and QS, they shouldn't. The new quickscat (finally) still shows some 35kt barbs and pretty close to the center, too.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

By how deep the convection was last night it was likely a tropical storm 40 to 45 knots for a good amount of time(12 hours). I do agree that it is looking weak right now. But there doe's seems to be a small area of convection trying to reform. Lots of dry air around it. In WindRunner, if theres still 35 knot winds then its a tropical storm still.

Lets see if convection wents to come back???