TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gkrangers]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBds100.png

the surface circulation may be near 17.5N and 48W. There is only a trough axis farther north, with TS winds

I don't see it ?

[deltadog03]

ok, derek, this may be a stupid question but, is the quikscat better too look at specially at night for where the center is??? rather than sat?

[Ivanhater]

hey pros, take a look at this, maybe yall can help, im not sure if the weakness is that slot that is closing up, and there seems to be sinking air to the north of it, indicative of dry air i know, but possible ridge over it? im not sure what to think

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

hey, my question is first!! lol

[Ivanhater]

mlc still rotating away, im not sure if thats what derek was referring to as a surface reflection

[deltadog03]

that might not be a MLC it could be a LLC...cuz, quickscat is surface winds...i believe

[elysium]

We will not likely see any appreciable development until Irene is west of the 55th longitudinal. Her forward heading is currently W.N.W. bending to the west from her previous heading of just north of W.N.W. as she parrys underneath the remnant weakness in the ridge. This is filling in with high pressure pushing in from the east and northeast in the wake of an evacuating Harvey. Once past the light sheer between 48W and 55W, a more robust organization will ensue as Irene then heads off to the west. High pressure is forecast to extend from well east of Irene at that point to well into the GOM. The NHC says that this ridge will weaken and allow for recurvature.

[Derek Ortt]

in the 11 p.m. forecast, I totally disregarded the QS. It doesn't really pass the giggle test

[wxman57]

ok, derek, this may be a stupid question but, is the quikscat better too look at specially at night for where the center is??? rather than sat?

Satellite is definitely better at night, but you have to use an enhancement curve that differentiates between the warm ocean surface and cloud top temperatures just above the ocean surface. I.E., the curve needs to pick up very low clouds.

I can see the circulation that Derek pointed out using QS down around 18N. That's the mid-level swirl we could see on visible imagery earlier. It's been moving southward. I can also pretty clearly see the LLC up around 21.5N/48W. Here's a satellite image that shows low clouds. I added some arrows to identify the 3 circulation centers that we could see using visible imagery earlier:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene30.gif

[Sanibel]

It's possible Irene is slightly more west under that spot of convection.

I think it has entered slightly warmer SST's as well. Maybe that accounts for the convection blooms near the center...

[deltadog03]

thnks

[Astro_man92]

ok, derek, this may be a stupid question but, is the quikscat better too look at specially at night for where the center is??? rather than sat?

Satellite is definitely better at night, but you have to use an enhancement curve that differentiates between the warm ocean surface and cloud top temperatures just above the ocean surface. I.E., the curve needs to pick up very low clouds.

I can see the circulation that Derek pointed out using QS down around 18N. That's the mid-level swirl we could see on visible imagery earlier. It's been moving southward. I can also pretty clearly see the LLC up around 21.5N/48W. Here's a satellite image that shows low clouds. I added some arrows to identify the 3 circulation centers that we could see using visible imagery earlier:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene30.gif

an u mark the center on that map

[wxman57]

This sure is a boring storm to keep talking about. All it is doing is making me work weekends. Chances of it affecting any of our customers are extremely remote.

I was just checking out the 18Z GFS and see something interesting. Once Irene gets out of the way, the GFS indicates the ridge spanning the Atlantic across the subtropics. We may be setting up for the real start of the Cape Verde season in a week or so, with one storm after another moving west toward the Caribbean and/or the east U.S. coast.

[Ivanhater]

This sure is a boring storm to keep talking about. All it is doing is making me work weekends. Chances of it affecting any of our customers are extremely remote.

I was just checking out the 18Z GFS and see something interesting. Once Irene gets out of the way, the GFS indicates the ridge spanning the Atlantic across the subtropics. We may be setting up for the real start of the Cape Verde season in a week or so, with one storm after another moving west toward the Caribbean and/or the east U.S. coast.

haaa you should go vote in my poll then, when will jose form, lol

[sma10]

Satellite is definitely better at night, but you have to use an enhancement curve that differentiates between the warm ocean surface and cloud top temperatures just above the ocean surface. I.E., the curve needs to pick up very low clouds.

I can see the circulation that Derek pointed out using QS down around 18N. That's the mid-level swirl we could see on visible imagery earlier. It's been moving southward. I can also pretty clearly see the LLC up around 21.5N/48W. Here's a satellite image that shows low clouds. I added some arrows to identify the 3 circulation centers that we could see using visible imagery earlier:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene30.gif

Do you feel that the northernmost circulation has finally "taken control" of the system or is there still a possibility that the center may reform again. If so, what are the ramifications down the road should the center end up reforming at the 18N 45W location?

[wxman57]

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene30.gif

can u mark the center on that map

Check the image out again, I put a yellow "X" where I think the center is.

[Astro_man92]

can u mark the center on that map

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene30.gif

Check the image out again, I put a yellow "X" where I think the center is.

Thank You

[wxman57]

Do you feel that the northernmost circulation has finally "taken control" of the system or is there still a possibility that the center may reform again. If so, what are the ramifications down the road should the center end up reforming at the 18N 45W location?

The northernmost center IS the center of Irene. It hasn't "taken control". The swirl to the southeast is a mid-level center that appears to be dissipating. The little eddy to the south-southwest is inconsequential.

As I stated this morning, I do not believe that the center "reformed" overnight, I think the NHC simply couldn't track it at night and assumed the wrong motion overnight.

[Ivanhater]

Do you feel that the northernmost circulation has finally "taken control" of the system or is there still a possibility that the center may reform again. If so, what are the ramifications down the road should the center end up reforming at the 18N 45W location?

The northernmost center IS the center of Irene. It hasn't "taken control". The swirl to the southeast is a mid-level center that appears to be dissipating. The little eddy to the south-southwest is inconsequential.

As I stated this morning, I do not believe that the center "reformed" overnight, I think the NHC simply couldn't track it at night and assumed the wrong motion overnight.

i have to disagree, we were tracking the very evident center yesterday evening as it was moving wsw, and we could see it dying out while a new one waas reforming further north

[BensonTCwatcher]

that little eddy began early this morning and moved up NE along the convergence this afternoon at a good clip. this evening it kind of slowed and fired the convection around it. I agree it will be overcome but it has was decent looking before it got dark

[Astro_man92]

Is that Third cirrculation another Low interfering? or is it like an ULL that is interfering? Is it part of Irene? Will it threaten to tear it apart?

What will happen to that MLC? Will it just die out? Will it reform into Irene?

What will Happen to the first cirrculation? Will it be replaced?

What will happen to Irene? Will it be a fish? How stong will it be? Will it be a threat to Florida or even the gulf coast? if that happens will it be the next major memorable storm? or will it be a weak hussican/ Strong TS and be forgotten and overlaped by the memories of the other stronger storms of the season?

Will the season continue to be this active? or will it die out unexpectedly? Will it break the 1933 record for most Recorded storms? Will this season continue to break records? or wil it disapoint us and be active in the beggining but turn out to be a dud?

Those are the questions I'm asking. How about you. lol Sorry some times I get lost in my thoughts and if I have a pad of paper and pencil or a computer in front of me I fin I write my thoughts down lol but seriously are these good questions or do you have better lol