TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[baygirl_1]

She seems, to me at least, to have a pretty strong (and persistent) circulation. However, that circulation spends a good deal of the time pretty naked.
Thanks for the sat pics-- I like zoomed in!-- wxman 57.

[wxwatcher91]

It's a slow weather day...

you got that right.

[Hyperstorm]

Notice that the recent satellite images indicate a burst of convection to the east of the low-level swirl in one of the outer bands. This is in contrast to last night when convection re-developed right over the center and was blown away.

This indicates two things to me:

1) There's no forcing going on in the swirl right now. If convection doesn't refire within the next 6-12 hours over the center, this means that the center has lost its strength and will likely not be of much concern anymore. This is normally followed by dissipation of the swirl.

2) If convection continues developing near that new convergence zone to the east, a MLC might develop as the main center spins down.

I'll be watching for that as even if Irene dissipates its current LLC, the overall disturbance will continue to track WNW...

[sponger]

Seems like the Bamm may have a better handle on the track as long as it remains weak. Time will tell!

[clfenwi]

Looks like the 12Z GFS pretty thoroughly kills off Irene. Last feature that I can associate with her is a 850 mb vorticity max at 54 h. Slightly after that, maybe a surface disturbance, but that too disappears relatively soon thereafter.

54 hr vort max

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_85v_054s.gif

hint of surface disturbance

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_072s.gif

[Ivanhater]

well some models have been kiiling irene off from the start, and she just wont die

[clfenwi]

well some models have been kiiling irene off from the start, and she just wont die

I think they mean it this time! Other times they were just playing!

Seriously though, Irene gets to try to find her way across some signifcant mid-level shear. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

While the upper-level shear just had the effect of blowing off convection, this mid-level shear could take apart the only thing she's had going for her... the persistent llc.

She's been a fighter to this point, I'll admit and I've been skeptical of the death forecasts since the start, but my belief in their plausibilty is at a relative max at this time.

[Ivanhater]

looking at visible, irene has been moving mainly west ever since passing 50w

[Sanibel]

Irene tracking across rising SST's from 83* to 85* as it tracks west...

[storms in NC]

looking at visible, irene has been moving mainly west ever since passing 50w

I saw that too. Have to wait for a for more to see if it stays that way or not

[boca]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

Just like storms in NC posted Irene or now TD10 is moving N of due west.

[clfenwi]

It is totally not in the POD, but the Gulfstream-IV is doing an upper air mission iso Irene.

UZNT13 KWBC 081732

XXAA 58172 99217 70452 07715 99017 26650 10016 00150 25243 10018
92830 20450 12018 85562 20872 12519 70204 09066 15513 50589 09756
16524 40760 16529 18013 30969 30561 22016 25096 415// 21513 20244
531// 23012 88999 77999
31313 09608 81705
51515 10167 01917 10190 15423
61616 NOAA9 WX09A IRENE OB 06

[wxman57]

looking at visible, irene has been moving mainly west ever since passing 50w

I measure 281.4 degrees from 50W to the 1730Z position.

[gkrangers]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

Just like storms in NC posted Irene or now TD10 is moving N of due west.

Actually its TD Irene. They keep the name..

[jax]

looking at visible, irene has been moving mainly west ever since passing 50w

I measure 281.4 degrees from 50W to the 1730Z position.

WWNW?

[WeatherEmperor]

I dont know if this has been posted already but why is there a 93L Invest currently out in the Atlantic. Check out the model map page here and scroll down to 93L.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[gkrangers]

I dont know if this has been posted already but why is there a 93L Invest currently out in the Atlantic. Check out the model map page here and scroll down to 93L.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

There is no current 93L. Those are just the old model plots from when it existed.

[Derecho]

12 ECMWF showing Irene making landfall along the SC/NC border in 7 days.

[WeatherEmperor]

12 ECMWF showing Irene making landfall along the SC/NC border in 7 days.

Does it say how strong it will be at landfall?

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

well i cant use the goes visible, its jumping around, i hate that