Irene Track Continue to Shifts More West

[DESTRUCTION5]

our buddy JB says N of the Bahamas 5 days and EC threat...

[gatorcane]

.S. The weakness in the subtropical ridge is currently very apparent here in South Florida - our normal easterly winds have been absent the past several days, with afternoon thunderstorms moving towards the east. There have been other years without a consistent easterly wind pattern in this area, and, those years usually did not include landfalling hurricanes on the Florida peninsula (probably because many recurved well east of the state).

There hasn't been an E wind pattern in S. Florida most of this summer....unless we see dramatic changes in the next month, we won't have anything hit from the East. It's the ones coming up from the south that we need to watch.

[DESTRUCTION5]

.S. The weakness in the subtropical ridge is currently very apparent here in South Florida - our normal easterly winds have been absent the past several days, with afternoon thunderstorms moving towards the east. There have been other years without a consistent easterly wind pattern in this area, and, those years usually did not include landfalling hurricanes on the Florida peninsula (probably because many recurved well east of the state).

There hasn't been an E wind pattern in S. Florida most of this summer....unless we see dramatic changes in the next month, we won't have anything hit from the East. It's the ones coming up from the south that we need to watch.

I disagree..I have not seen a W-E storm all year(maybe 2 or 3)..Seabreeze has been kicking all year in MC

[hicksta]

somone post internet addreses to these models please.

[Frank2]

Re: boca_chris's post

Too true - there have been few days this Summer that had a truly easterly wind component (not counting east coast seabreezes), and that does favor less of a chance for this area, not only from the east, but, even from the south, since the old adage is that Caribbean hurricanes usually (usually) present less of a threat to southeast Florida than systems moving towards Florida from the east, because of their island-crossing weaknesses, though this is not the case with the west coast or panhandle.

Frank

[boca]

I agree with boca_chris too. No bermuda high influence what so ever.

[Sanibel]

It's been raining over the mainland, but very few storms make it out over us on the SE trade winds this year because they aren't there.

We got some heavy rains in the last few days from a west wind that brought the GOM Low disturbance bands over us...

[WeatherEmperor]

im just waiting for the 18Z models to come out to see what changes happen.

<RICKY>

[Frank2]

Interesting that many here in Florida have noticed the same absence - that's really significant, in my mind, since this usually does not happen until the late August/September period, when the subtropical (Bermuda) high begins to break down or move east, and we begin to lose the easterlies.

I can recall a similar season (1978), when we had little or no easterly trade winds over Florida, and the season seemed to wallow back and forth - click on http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html to view (note the similarities between two Category 4 hurricanes and the other weak hurricanes or tropical storms).

Glad I'm not the one who made these 2005 long-term predictions (officially known as forecasts)!

I might have to ask around to see if any changes in the forecast are forecast!

Frank

[gatorcane]

Interesting that many here in Florida have noticed the same absence - that's really significant, in my mind, since this usually does not happen until the late August/September period, when the subtropical (Bermuda) high begins to break down or move east, and we begin to lose the easterlies.

I can recall a similar season (1978), when we had little or no easterly trade winds over Florida, and the season seemed to wallow back and forth - click on http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html to view (note the similarities between two Category 4 hurricanes and the other weak hurricanes or tropical storms).

Glad I'm not the one who made these 2005 long-term predictions (officially known as forecasts)!

Agreed. In fact local mets will usually put in their extended forecasts that the easterly flow will return PUSHING the storms into the Everglades AWAY from the coast but it does't happen. This past weekend was a prime example. Mid last week they were calling for this pattern to kick in by the weekend but it never did.

I might have to ask around to see if any changes in the forecast are forecast!

[gatorcane]

Agreed. In fact local mets will usually put in their extended forecasts that the easterly flow will return PUSHING the storms into the Everglades AWAY from the coast but it does't happen. This past weekend was a prime example. Mid last week they were calling for this pattern to kick in by the weekend but it never did.

I might have to ask around to see if any changes in the forecast are forecast! [/quote]

[Patrick99]

I have also noticed the lack of easterly flow for the last week or so.

However, for most of July, we were under a strong easterly flow, and a strong high.....it kept Dennis and especially Emily well to the south of us. Who's to say a strong easterly flow won't return later on in August and September.

It just doesn't seem to be as persistent this year, and troughs/ULLs seem to hang around longer. It seems like last year, troughs would lift out in a hurry and be replaced by even stronger highs.

[gatorcane]

Patrick yeah I agree, July had more of an easterly flow...we should hope that it doesn't return for the peak of the season (it may just do this)

[Kennethb]

Here in Baton Rouge and south LA, its been several years since we have had a consistent tropical wave summer. In fact for the past several years we have had more north winds and more summer weather from the north than than I can recall.

[gatorcane]

Irene trending westward at 5pm....

[deltadog03]

good point boca...over the last 6 hours it has NOT moved 285...more like 275

[gatorcane]

good point boca...over the last 6 hours it has NOT moved 285...more like 275

It even looks like it's trying to head just south of 270 ... she's fighting hard to not get taken into the Atlantic graveyard.

[Sanibel]

I didn't want to say anything either but it was moving 275-280* while some of our experts were saying 285*...

[HurricaneGirl]

hmmmmmm

[Jim Cantore]

If it gets strong it will go out and not be a problem most likely

if it stays weak and goes toward the U.S well.... most likely wont be much of a problem unless it hits some really favroable areas