TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxman57]

I dont know if this has been posted already but why is there a 93L Invest currently out in the Atlantic. Check out the model map page here and scroll down to 93L.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

The NHC just ran a test on a 93L. There doesn't appear to be anything there. Looks like they were just picking a point closer to the convection associated with Irene to see what happens if they initialized the model there.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050808 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050808 1800 050809 0600 050809 1800 050810 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.2N 45.8W 21.2N 47.1W 22.2N 48.5W 23.3N 50.0W
BAMM 20.2N 45.8W 21.1N 47.5W 21.9N 49.4W 22.8N 51.6W
A98E 20.2N 45.8W 20.8N 46.7W 21.5N 47.9W 22.6N 49.2W
LBAR 20.2N 45.8W 20.8N 46.9W 22.1N 48.5W 23.6N 50.2W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 27KTS

[storms in NC]

12 ECMWF showing Irene making landfall along the SC/NC border in 7 days.

you are joking? Right?
But if it did wouldn't surprise me any. Nothing would at this time.

Brother and his wife are redoing their roof this week

[Derecho]

12 ECMWF showing Irene making landfall along the SC/NC border in 7 days.

Does it say how strong it will be at landfall?

<RICKY>

Global models are basically worthless for forecasting storm intensity. They're not really designed to represent eye pressures at all; even the models designed specifically to represent intensity aren't any good.

[wxmann_91]

The LLC is still looking pretty healthy, and new convection has just fired to the east, if shear lets up, this thing could restrengthen fast.

[gkrangers]

12 ECMWF showing Irene making landfall along the SC/NC border in 7 days.

Does it say how strong it will be at landfall?

<RICKY>

They aren't particularly trustworthy for intensity.

Yes..the 12z Euro puts it into SC/NC at day 7, next Monday.

[Sanibel]

Per usual with Irene as soon as someone mentions "dissipation" it shoots another flare of CDO convection.


SST's go up from here west. Moisture is slightly improving in dry area...

[cycloneye]

57 But why they have 93L as the number as that wave entered the caribbean more than a week and a half ago?.I think if they are going to do a test the numbers 80Ls are the ones they use for those not the 90's.

[Marilyn]

12 ECMWF showing Irene making landfall along the SC/NC border in 7 days.

Does it say how strong it will be at landfall?

<RICKY>

They aren't particularly trustworthy for intensity.

Yes..the 12z Euro puts it into SC/NC at day 7, next Monday.

Where is the 12z euro where can i go to see it?? Thank you

[gkrangers]

12 ECMWF showing Irene making landfall along the SC/NC border in 7 days.

Does it say how strong it will be at landfall?

<RICKY>

They aren't particularly trustworthy for intensity.

Yes..the 12z Euro puts it into SC/NC at day 7, next Monday.

Where is the 12z euro where can i go to see it?? Thank you

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005080812!!/ 500mb day 7

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005080812!!/surface day 7

[clfenwi]

UKMET's 12Z text guidance

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 50.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.08.2005 21.7N 50.0W WEAK
00UTC 09.08.2005 22.5N 52.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.08.2005 23.9N 54.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2005 23.9N 57.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2005 24.6N 60.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2005 25.6N 62.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2005 27.2N 64.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2005 28.8N 65.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2005 30.4N 65.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2005 31.3N 64.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2005 31.8N 64.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2005 31.5N 64.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.08.2005 32.3N 64.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

Note that the difference between the initialized position (21.7 N 50.0 W)
and the NHC's given 12Z position (22.2N 49.9W)... I'm not sure what the UKMET's resolution is, but that may amount to the same 'point' (iff the UKMET is fairly low-res, otherwise it is a point off).

[Ivanhater]

here is ukmet in graphic form

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[SkeetoBite]

57 But why they have 93L as the number as that wave entered the caribbean more than a week and a half ago?.I think if they are going to do a test the numbers 80Ls are the ones they use for those not the 90's.

I agree, our system shows the old GFDL data from last week entering the caribbean and the test data in the Atlantic.

Click for full size:

[gkrangers]

486
WHXX01 KWBC 081823
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050808 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050808 1800 050809 0600 050809 1800 050810 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.4N 50.9W 22.5N 52.1W 22.9N 53.4W 23.3N 54.9W
BAMM 22.4N 50.9W 22.5N 52.4W 22.8N 54.1W 23.1N 56.0W
A98E 22.4N 50.9W 22.8N 52.8W 23.3N 54.6W 23.8N 56.2W
LBAR 22.4N 50.9W 22.5N 52.5W 23.1N 54.4W 23.8N 56.4W
SHIP 30KTS 29KTS 32KTS 35KTS
DSHP 30KTS 29KTS 32KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050810 1800 050811 1800 050812 1800 050813 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.9N 56.7W 25.5N 60.5W 27.1N 63.6W 27.6N 64.8W
BAMM 23.6N 58.1W 24.9N 62.3W 26.2N 65.7W 26.6N 67.4W
A98E 24.7N 57.9W 26.3N 61.9W 27.8N 64.9W 28.1N 64.7W
LBAR 24.6N 58.4W 26.9N 62.0W 29.5N 63.8W 30.9N 62.7W
SHIP 40KTS 49KTS 57KTS 62KTS
DSHP 40KTS 49KTS 57KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.4N LONCUR = 50.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.8N LONM12 = 48.3W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 20.8N LONM24 = 46.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[wxman57]

57 But why they have 93L as the number as that wave entered the caribbean more than a week and a half ago?.I think if they are going to do a test the numbers 80Ls are the ones they use for those not the 90's.

You're askint ME to explain the NHC??

[gkrangers]

Not much change in the 18z models...pretty similar.

[clfenwi]

Given the timing of this upper-air flight, is it likely that that obs would make it into the 18Z GFS? After all, the data dump is still a bit over two hours away...

[Derek Ortt]

that flight is a SALEX research flight, not a tasked synoptic surveillance flight

[Sanibel]

Westward into SST city while doing a diurnal convection enhancement!

[cycloneye]

57 But why they have 93L as the number as that wave entered the caribbean more than a week and a half ago?.I think if they are going to do a test the numbers 80Ls are the ones they use for those not the 90's.

You're askint ME to explain the NHC??

That is an error as 93L was used already.

[clfenwi]

SALEX, for those wondering

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2005/sal.html

mumbles about tagging obs from research flights with IRENE

Oh, and thank you Derek for the clarification.