TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxman57]

Here's a new McIdas image. For a while there, squalls began developing over the center. But the center has emerged from beneath the convection at 3pm CDT. Oh, and the European model hasn't done too well with tropical systems so far this season.

Oh, and I measure a 3-hr motion (12pm-3pm CDT) of 285 deg at 10 kts. That's WNW not west.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene44.gif

[WeatherEmperor]

Im just wondering what the NHC has to say about this continued west motion and how it will impact their track forecast.

<RICKY>

[Derek Ortt]

wouldnt say the center is becomming unwound. Just that we have convection temporarily over it (it should be gone in a few hours)

Looked at a garp loop and there is no doubt that the center remains

[clfenwi]

LLC looks to have come unwound (1815, 1845, and 1915Z images; loop is channel 1 of eastern floater on http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html ... still shots are
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/197.jpg
and
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/198.jpg

though the numbers on the images are subject to change as new ones come out...)

...stay tuned...

Its going to become more difficult to see, with the sun setting and the new convection near the center.

Convection hasn't covered the bit I'm looking at yet...

It's easier to see with the loop, I suppose, but I'll use the individual images for the reference (opening them up sequentially in the same window and then using back/forward gives the same effect anyhow):

west and north of the western tip of the convection flare-up you see the low level clouds forming a tight circle around the center

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/196.jpg

in the next frame the circle looks to broaden

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/197.jpg

then it doesn't look like there is a closed circle anymore

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/198.jpg


Now I grant that sunset will make watching this difficult... darn earth's rotation...

[Derek Ortt]

I wouldn't touch the euro with a 100 mile long pole for TC's. By not using a bogusing or relocation system in the initial fields, the initial position of the TC can be off greatly, throwing the rest of the forecast

[clfenwi]

wouldnt say the center is becomming unwound. Just that we have convection temporarily over it (it should be gone in a few hours)

Looked at a garp loop and there is no doubt that the center remains

Yeah, unwound isn't the word I was looking for... exposed/open is more like it.

[wxman57]

wouldnt say the center is becomming unwound. Just that we have convection temporarily over it (it should be gone in a few hours)

Looked at a garp loop and there is no doubt that the center remains

See my latest image above, Derek (or below). Center exposed again. 3-hr movement 285 deg at 10 kts:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene44.gif

[Nimbus]

Assuming Irene makes it to the western edge of the ridge before reaching 25 degrees latitude what will be the variables late in the forecast period?

Some of the models are forecasting recurve near 70W which would seem unlikely if there is a strong ridge present.

Will a new weakness occur in the ridge before US landfall?
Looks like the current weakness off the east coast may fill back in again but there is time for another to develop.

[wxman57]

Here's a more zoomed in shot from 3pm:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene45.gif

[Derecho]

Now that the EC is out on PSC the init is indeed much too far south for Irene.

Unfortunate as the ECMWF routinely crushes all other models in verification performance for sensible weather over North America; the problems with init location can be crippling at times.

Even with that I'd take it over worthless junk like the Canadian or MM5.

[Astro_man92]

here is a really cool link

RAMSDIS ONLINE TD Irene loop

[wxmann_91]

The new convection is dying off again, but no surprise there. These flareups and flaredowns should continue until the shear dies off.

[clfenwi]

wxman57, thank you for taking the time to save and post the zoom-ins. Very helpful.

[Astro_man92]

Here is the Water vapor loop

Water Vapor

it is sort of screwy

[wxmann_91]

Is it just me or is that ULL that has been inducing shear over Irene lifting north and outa here?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That ULL is moving out to the north. In the shear over the cyclone is fairly low. The dry air also appears to be getting pushed to the south.

[Patrick99]

If that nasty mid-oceanic low out there is lifting out, seems that that should start to open the door for more Cape Verdes to have a chance.

[deltadog03]

it looks like the convection tries to come over the center and then it spits it out...lol..oh, btw, the EURO did extremely well with typhoon mafsa?sp...The joint typhoon warning service had it paralleling the china coast...the Euro had it coming in onshore...guess who one out...ding ding ding...Euro...Im not saying that the euro will be correct about irene...but, its certainly possible

[Ivanhater]

westward ho!!

[WeatherEmperor]

oh stop makin fun of the Euro. lol

<RICKY>