TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Ivanhater
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#441 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 08, 2005 3:46 pm

its moved .1n and .8 west in 6 hours
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#442 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 3:46 pm

hey, i really like the euro....
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#443 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 08, 2005 3:47 pm

ivanhater wrote:its moved .1n and .8 west in 6 hours


i know. however according to the NHC 5pm track it should be moving more WNW soon.

<RICKY>
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#444 Postby storms in NC » Mon Aug 08, 2005 3:47 pm

sure glad I got to see report befor I went to work Have to run to make it in at 5
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#445 Postby Astro_man92 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 3:56 pm

shouldn't we make a new thread right about now because it is 23 pages long
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#446 Postby gkrangers » Mon Aug 08, 2005 3:57 pm

Astro_man92 wrote:shouldn't we make a new thread right about now because it is 23 pages long
So?
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#447 Postby Astro_man92 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 3:58 pm

gkrangers wrote:
Astro_man92 wrote:shouldn't we make a new thread right about now because it is 23 pages long
So?


aee now that i think about it you are right
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#448 Postby Astro_man92 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:01 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
ivanhater wrote:its moved .1n and .8 west in 6 hours


i know. however according to the NHC 5pm track it should be moving more WNW soon.

<RICKY>


it is a good thing that it is possibly going ot move WNW and not WSW cause if it moves WSW it will move into the caribean right?
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#449 Postby jasons2k » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:02 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Im just wondering what the NHC has to say about this continued west motion and how it will impact their track forecast.

<RICKY>


They have spoken, yesterday 11:00 AM from NHC:

"IT IS SOMETIMES MORE PRODUCTIVE TO TRACK THE OVERALL DISTURBANCE THAN THE CIRCULATION CENTER ITSELF...IN THIS CASE IGNORING THE CIRCULATIONS THAT HAVE FORMED...MOVED MORE WESTWARD...AND THEN DIED...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY NEW CENTERS TO THE NORTH. "
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#450 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:08 pm

When the convection redeveloped this morning... the low level center
slowed down in response. Smoothing through the stop-and-go motion
during the past 12 hours or so yields an initial motion of 285/10.
The new official forecast is basically an update of the previous
advisory... and there is a little more confidence in this track now
since some of the models that were eastern outliers this morning...
such as the UKMET and NOGAPS... have shifted westward.
Therefore... models are coming into better agreement that a system
of moderate tropical storm strength will move west-northwestward
along the southern periphery of the lower/mid level subtropical
ridge. The slow motion shown at the end of the official forecast
is indicative of the great uncertainty late in the period...when
the spread in the models is still quite significant.
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#451 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:11 pm

now they dont even mention the famous "weakness", they say it will be steered by the ridge now...very intersting
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#452 Postby Astro_man92 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:12 pm

it looks now as if the covection is moving away from the center now


Irene Visible Image loop
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#453 Postby gkrangers » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:16 pm

It should be noted that while the surface center is a bad inti by the ECMWF..the 850mb center was initialized in the correct spot.
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#454 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:16 pm

yeah, they don't mention the weakness or atleast didn't at 5pm...interesting...maybe nothing though.
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#455 Postby Astro_man92 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:20 pm

what is ECMWF
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#456 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:25 pm

Astro_man92 wrote:shouldn't we make a new thread right about now because it is 23 pages long


This thread will continue open regardless on how many pages it may have to continue to get comments about this system.
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#457 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:26 pm

Lets see if it can get a 100 pages...
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#458 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:27 pm

it is the european's forecast model...don't remember the full name..sorry
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#459 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:29 pm

Astro_man92 wrote:what is ECMWF


European
Center for
Medium-range
Weather
Forecasting

ECMWF

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5070312!!/

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html
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#460 Postby HenkL » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:30 pm

ECMWF = European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
http://www.ecmwf.int/
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