TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gkrangers]

irene has been moving almost due west for a while now

I'm curious as to where you think the center is presently? I can see it fairly well on enhanced IR imagery.

Looks 22.5N, 52W to me..

[Ivanhater]

i would say about 22.5 and 53 west roughly

[wxman57]

irene has been moving almost due west for a while now

I'm curious as to where you think the center is presently? I can see it fairly well on enhanced IR imagery.

what do you mean? its clearly moving west

No tricks, just where is the center (lat/lon)? You state it is moving west. We know where it was pretty accurately with the last visible images, so the current position would indicate movement since sunset.

[Ivanhater]

irene has been moving almost due west for a while now

I'm curious as to where you think the center is presently? I can see it fairly well on enhanced IR imagery.

what do you mean? its clearly moving west

No tricks, just where is the center (lat/lon)? You state it is moving west. We know where it was pretty accurately with the last visible images, so the current position would indicate movement since sunset.

already answered you...22.5 and 53 roughly, its moving west

[clfenwi]

A later scene in the Monty Python hurricane movie...

GFDL: ...for since the death of the tropical storm...

Random Person: She's not quite dead!

GFDL: Since the near fatal wounding of the tropical storm...

Random Person: She's getting better!

GFDL: For, since the tropical storm... who, when she seemed about to recover, suddenly felt the icy hand of death upon her...

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080823

[WeatherEmperor]

if it is at 22.5N 53W, then it hasnt moved an inch northward since the 5pm advisory.

<RICKY>

[gkrangers]

A later scene in the Monty Python hurricane movie...

GFDL: ...for since the death of the tropical storm...

Random Person: She's not quite dead!

GFDL: Since the near fatal wounding of the tropical storm...

Random Person: She's getting better!

GFDL: For, since the tropical storm... who, when she seemed about to recover, suddenly felt the icy hand of death upon her...

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080823

The GFDL really has a grudge against Irene...bad date maybe ?

Anyway...while it does dissipate in 24 hours, it does generally move it west, even has a 266 heading in there.

[Astro_man92]

WHOW QUESION that I think would be pretty interesting. is it possible if shear hits a hurricane just right can it actually help the circulation (note the drawing)

To answer your question, small amounts of wind shear can actually aid in the intensifation of a hurricane, but your drawing would not represent what I'm talking about. Your drawing basically shows an upper-level aiticyclone over a hurricane (high center), which would aid in the outlow and help it to intensify. What I'm thinking of was Charley last year.

As Charley entered the southeastern Gulf, there was a fairly sharp trof to its northwest. This put Charley into the southeast quadrant of the upper low. Normally, you'd associate an upper-low with wind shear. But Charley wasn't quite close enough for the wind shear to disrupt the storm. Instead, the increased southwesterly winds aloft helped evacuate the large amount of rising air inside Charley, allowing it to deepen quickly prior to landfall. So by drawing air out the top of Charley, it allowed pressure to fall in Charley's center, which allowed the winds to increase.

We saw a similar situation with Lili in 2002. Lili exploded with it ran into the outer periphery of an upper low, but decreased in intensity rapidly at landfall as it encountered shear that was too strong.

There were quite a number of excellent papers on wind shear effects presented at the 26 Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology in Miami last year. Here's a link to the papers which were presented. Some of them may still be available online:

http://ams.confex.com/ams/26HURR/techpr ... ed_212.htm

srry about the really really crud drawing

[Ivanhater]

if it is at 22.5N 53W, then it hasnt moved an inch northward since the 5pm advisory.

<RICKY>

yep, clearly moving west

[wxman57]

i would say about 22.5 and 53 west roughly

It appears to be at 22.7N/52.2W at 6:54pm CDT. Let's call that 7pm. AT 3pm, it was at 21.5N/51.4W.

So in 4 hours, it moved 0.2 north and 0.8 west. But at Irene's latitude, 1/10 of a degree north is slightly farther than 1/10 of a degree east-west. But, roughly, we have a 1 to 4 slope. This is rougly 22 degrees north of due west, or 290 degrees, which is WNW.

Here's a new satellite image with lat/lon markers and the center marked with a white "X". I also put another "X" where the center was 12 hours ago for a longer time period reference. That track is also right around 290 degrees. So it appears to still be tracking WNW.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene48.gif

[wxman57]

I just went back and looked at my 12 hour loop, and I can clearly see it's still moving WNW just as it has all day. However, I'm ignoring the bright white (or false-colored) higher cloud tops. If you look at the high cloud tops, then it APPEARS to be moving due west. Problem is, those higher tops are building southward on the east side of the center. They're not in the same point with respect to the center as they were 2-3 hours ago. It's an optical illusion. Ignore the high clouds, look for the faint gray low-level clouds.

[Ivanhater]

I just went back and looked at my 12 hour loop, and I can clearly see it's still moving WNW just as it has all day. However, I'm ignoring the bright white (or false-colored) higher cloud tops. If you look at the high cloud tops, then it APPEARS to be moving due west. Problem is, those higher tops are building southward on the east side of the center. They're not in the same point with respect to the center as they were 2-3 hours ago. It's an optical illusion. Ignore the high clouds, look for the faint gray low-level clouds.

im not looking at the cloud tops....i took to first image of the loop and the last and it is west, its very obvious to me

[deltadog03]

I just went back and looked at my 12 hour loop, and I can clearly see it's still moving WNW just as it has all day. However, I'm ignoring the bright white (or false-colored) higher cloud tops. If you look at the high cloud tops, then it APPEARS to be moving due west. Problem is, those higher tops are building southward on the east side of the center. They're not in the same point with respect to the center as they were 2-3 hours ago. It's an optical illusion. Ignore the high clouds, look for the faint gray low-level clouds.

yeah, i mean i am not trying to argue cuz, i really like the pics, but i just don't see this moving at 290....i still see between 270- and at best 280...

[wxman57]

I just went back and looked at my 12 hour loop, and I can clearly see it's still moving WNW just as it has all day. However, I'm ignoring the bright white (or false-colored) higher cloud tops. If you look at the high cloud tops, then it APPEARS to be moving due west. Problem is, those higher tops are building southward on the east side of the center. They're not in the same point with respect to the center as they were 2-3 hours ago. It's an optical illusion. Ignore the high clouds, look for the faint gray low-level clouds.

im not looking at the cloud tops....i took to first image of the loop and the last and it is west, its very obvious to me

If you're not tracking the low-level center on a map with a 1-deg lat/lon grid then you're probably being fooled by an optical illusion caused by squalls east of the center drifting southward as the center moves WNW. You have to track that low-level swirl, which is almost the same color as the ocean surface.

[ROCK]

I just went back and looked at my 12 hour loop, and I can clearly see it's still moving WNW just as it has all day. However, I'm ignoring the bright white (or false-colored) higher cloud tops. If you look at the high cloud tops, then it APPEARS to be moving due west. Problem is, those higher tops are building southward on the east side of the center. They're not in the same point with respect to the center as they were 2-3 hours ago. It's an optical illusion. Ignore the high clouds, look for the faint gray low-level clouds.

I agree......but last frames show a more west component in it than WNW....then again, you have acesss to sats, pics that I don't....

[Ivanhater]

were going to have to agree to disagree, because i see a clear westward movement

[swimaster20]

From my point of view I think Irene has been moving either due west or slightly north of due west,but not quite WNW. But of course, I may be wrong.

[cycloneye]

08/2345 UTC 22.5N 52.2W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean


At 5 PM Advisorie it was at 22.5n.almost 3 hours later SSD Dvorak sat estimates has it at 22.5n meaning due west.

[wxman57]

I just went back and looked at my 12 hour loop, and I can clearly see it's still moving WNW just as it has all day. However, I'm ignoring the bright white (or false-colored) higher cloud tops. If you look at the high cloud tops, then it APPEARS to be moving due west. Problem is, those higher tops are building southward on the east side of the center. They're not in the same point with respect to the center as they were 2-3 hours ago. It's an optical illusion. Ignore the high clouds, look for the faint gray low-level clouds.

I agree......but last frames show a more west component in it than WNW....then again, you have acesss to sats, pics that I don't....

Just got the 7:24pm CDT image and the center is now almost indistinguishable. The low clouds are almost the same temperature as the water now, or they've dissipated around the center. I see a big open void where the central swirl was. Well, here, let me demonstrate with the current image how hard it is to locate the center:

Here's the "raw" image from 7:24pm:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene49.gif

Here's the same image with a small white circle indicating where I know the center to be based upon the previous image and also the short arc of low clouds to the top left of the center:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene49b.gif

Now here's a loop of the two images together:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ireneloop.gif

[Ivanhater]

08/2345 UTC 22.5N 52.2W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean


At 5 PM Advisorie it was at 22.5n.almost 3 hours later SSD Dvorak sat estimates has it at 22.5n meaning due west.

thank you!!