Forecast: Irene is still very weak. At times I wonder how in the heck she is still alive but, this is the tropics and anything can and usually does happen. This LLC is amazing on how it takes this all this shear and still continues to plot along basically to the west. intial motion is set at 275. It has pretty much moved along at 275 for the past 8 hours. I see no reason for this not to continue. With that said, anything is still possible with this system. I could very well turn out to SEA or just FIZZLE. I do call for her to regain TS status in about 24 hours as it moves W-WNW. The SST due heat up as well as more favoriable shear conditions. Now, the question is wether or not it hits the weakness and goes out. Right now, I feel like since she is so weak its gonna be hard for this to make the connection unless she strengthens and quickly. The W-WNW path should continue for the next 2-3 days unless there is some considerable strengthing. After that, its still very much a toss up but, at that point if not recurving it will be under the weakness and should basically stay WNW.
short term confidence: good
extended confidence: poor
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