Biggest suprise hurricanes

[SouthernWx]

I don't know, I don't believe landfalling hurricanes were almost all surprises before satellites and the Weather Channel. We do have all those historical tracks and pressure readings; the data was being collected. The telegraph and radio and telephone existed. Do you mean because track forecasting was primitive?

The Coast Guard flew over the Keys and dropped paper storm warning messages to individual boaters and groups of picnickers on Labor Day, so <i>somebody</i> knew it was coming. I have to think the awful suprise was the intensification over such a short distance.

What I mean by "surprises" is that the tracking process so innaccurate...many times the hurricane would either slam ashore outside the warned area or come ashore much stronger than forecast.

For example, there was NEVER a hurricane warning posted for the Florida Keys by WBO Miami....it was a "northeast storm warning"; I've conducted extensive research on this fascinating hurricane. True, they knew there was a strong storm somewhere between Andros Island and the Keys, but they didn't know an exact location, had no clue to the true intensity (called it a "tropical disturbance of considerable intensity"..."likely contained winds of hurricane force over a small area near the center").

The Miami WBO also apparently expected the hurricane to pass through the Florida Straits and into the GOM well south of Key West.....why they issued storm and not hurricane warnings. If I'd been a resident of the Keys, the bulletins issued by the Miami Weather Bureau (WBO) wouldn't have caused me any undu alarm; certainly not convince me a major or record breaking hurricane was coming. Why? BECAUSE the weather bureau office didn't know....they had no clue it was anything more than a minimal hurricane at most (what info they had was from ship reports and surface obs on Andros Island).

Yes, they knew something was out there....but not enough accurate info to give the helpless folks in it's path any assistance in time to save their lives (i.e- a 160+ mph hurricane is coming...it will produce a storm surge 15-20' high which will drown you; so "evacuate the Keys NOW"!!).

The core region of the Labor Day hurricane was so tiny, if those in the path had only known in time.....a short 15-20 minute drive up or down the Keys from Long or Lower Matecumbe Key would have spared them the 200 mph winds, the devastating storm surge...and spared their lives

[Lori]

The storm surge from Ivan was a BIG BAD surprise. Houses scoured from their foundations, inland flooding, and no one expected a part of Interstate 10 to be washed away.

[KeyLargoDave]

SouthernWx has explained it very well. Thanks for all the additional info.

I recently re-read the log entries from the Key West weather bureau office, the obs they had. Predictions were off, gale warnings and such, no good forecast of the landfall point, so certainly a suprise in that sense.

I've studied as much as I can find too, living not too far from where it hit. Visited the Memorial several times (and is that a somber thing, knowing the ashes are in there). Met one survivor from Islamorada, and another who was on Elliot Key. And seeing the little Angel statue on a (Pinder?) grave in the small cemetery on the beach in Islamorada, which wasn't harmed in the storm, eerie. When you go into the building department on Plantation Key, you see a large copy of the map that shows where each body was found.

What I didn't realize for a long time was, as you've said, how small the core was, how escapable. Of course, you couldn't drive very far south without the ferry, the landing was at the lower end of Lower Matecumbe, the road ended there. Also, suprising to me that the storm moved slowly, the eye couldn't have been very large but J.E. Duane said it took 55 minutes to pass over him on Long Key. So lucky he survived and amazing that he took pressure readings throughout.

I'm sure we'll have many personal definitions of most surprising -- change in course, unexpected intensity change (good or bad), lack of warning for whatever reason. Charley surprised people, even if it's because they weren't paying attention. Andrew suprised the <bad word> out of me, I nearly missed the evacuation order.

The most surprising storm is the one you get caught in, for sure.

[f5]

as of NOV 1