TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gkrangers]

its 10:09Z

The circulation of TD Irene is still somewhat exposed on the western edge of the convection. The eastern half of the center may be covered...if this persists as it is, or gets better, expect TS Irene at 11AM.

[hicksta]

your up early

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look at that ob that says 101 degree water. No wonder its blowing up its convection. Click on left floater...Its in red!!!
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[elysium]

You need to remember that Camille was under high pressure aloft and being steered around the perimeter of the ridge. High pressure also provides outflow. In the case of Florida, the dirfference between having a strong ridge or no ridge makes all the difference. It was just something that i threw in because the ridge will more than likely be talked about a lot as Irene nears the Bahamas. There may be some who don't understand this basic concept, but who will be hearing a lot about it in the coming days. Thank you for your response.

[cinlfla]

In the case of Florida, the dirfference between having a strong ridge or no ridge makes all the difference.

I understand what your saying as far as the ridge making a difference as far as Florida is concerned. IMO I don't think we will have to worry about the ridge this time around. IMO I still beleive that Irene will recurve if not then I think that the Carolina's will have to deal with her but of course I'm not the experts its only my opinion.

[wxman57]

Morning! About to head into work where I can get some really detailed McIdas imagery going. Just looked at what I can see from home, I'm having difficulty finding a center of Irene. There seems to be a broad open swirl extening from 21N-24N. Can't see that tight center that was visible yesterday, and I don't think it's under that area of squalls since the squalls are on the eastern side of the broad circulation. Could be that Irene is weakening to a wave this morning, but I won't be able to confirm that until I get to work in 20-25 minutes.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.5N 53.6W AT
09/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NO LONGER EXPOSED
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE
DRY UPPER AIR SURROUNDING IRENE HAS LITTLE EFFECT ON AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 90
NM OF LINE 21N53W-25.5N50W.


From Discussion at 8 AM.

[Air Force Met]

Morning! About to head into work where I can get some really detailed McIdas imagery going. Just looked at what I can see from home, I'm having difficulty finding a center of Irene. There seems to be a broad open swirl extening from 21N-24N. Can't see that tight center that was visible yesterday, and I don't think it's under that area of squalls since the squalls are on the eastern side of the broad circulation. Could be that Irene is weakening to a wave this morning, but I won't be able to confirm that until I get to work in 20-25 minutes.

I've noticed the same thing. The center is really loose this morning....very broad. I think it's still there...but it is elongated and I suspect the center will reform either to the east or northeast.

[Skyline]

Wow! This has been one typical cyclone for the season. By which I mean, that it has refused to go along with anything. This one even has the experts changing their tune every now and then.

That ULL to its north providing shear to Irene and has moved on out to the north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

High pressure is building back and our weak storm is flowing west with the trade winds.

I think she'll head west or WNW for awhile. The questions I see as relevant is where will that pesky high be at as she approaches the east coast? How strong will she be? And what effect will that ULL of the Carolina coastline have on Irene?

I not thinking fish anymore.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow! This has been one typical cyclone for the season. By which I mean, that it has refused to go along with anything. This one even has the experts changing their tune every now and then.

That ULL to its north providing shear to Irene and has moved on out to the north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

High pressure is building back and our weak storm is flowing west with the trade winds.

I think she'll head west or WNW for awhile. The questions I see as relevant is where will that pesky high be at as she approaches the east coast? How strong will she be? And what effect will that ULL of the Carolina coastline have on Irene?

I not thinking fish anymore.

Im sorry but they have to make a drastic shift to the left in this track..As long as this thing stays weak its going to go W-WNW..

[wxman57]

Here are a few McIdas shots. They don't clear things up much, except to confirm that there is no longer a tight center:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene50.gif

Zoomed in more with cloud element motions identified:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene51.gif

Looks like a big open swirl now, really does not qualify for TD status at all.

[Derek Ortt]

actually, in this case, a stronger system would head more to the west as it would be mroe influenced by the northerly upper wind flow, unlike the current weak system, which wont be influenced at all by this. Look at the BAM models

[stormernie]

If you look at the low cloud feeding into a center near 21N 54W, the center is now under the SW cloud burst.

[Derek Ortt]

see the quikscat thread... there's nothing resembling a center.

[stormernie]

This is because the center has redeveloped under the cloud burst. The QS was taken prior to this happening.

[Derek Ortt]

just looked at a visible and IR image

1. Convection is rapidly weakening

2. There is not enough focused inflow yet for a new center. I will recheck again, but I am far less optimistic about this surviving than I previously was

[storms in NC]

This is because the center has redeveloped under the cloud burst. The QS was taken prior to this happening.

For the history of this storm you might be right. It just may be relocating it center. We will just have to see. she has a mine of her own. lol

[Derek Ortt]

just rechecked with a 5 image GARP loop... only see a large broad circulation. Yes, this is more of a cyclone than was Grace, but it does not appear to be a true TC. May not get killed off at 11, but its a possibility

[cycloneye]

09/1145 UTC 22.2N 53.3W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean


Derek SSD still is tracking a center.

[Derek Ortt]

SSD has been known to assign numbers quite often to systems that have no center. On IR, I could see where a center is (not enough images at the time to provide a good visible loop). Any center that I see is way down near 21.5N and very ill-defined