The ridge will hold.....

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Watch out Florida and Carolinas.

[WeatherEmperor]

actually according to 5am discussion, the hurricane center says that ridge will move westward and weaken.

<RICKY>

[WXFIEND]

Wow, I woke up this morning thinking that things would look more unfavorable as they have every other morning and instead, 06Z models trended MORE towards the coast.

I am in no way a. dare I say it, weenie, but looking at the NHC track and how wide it is... whats to stop it from travelling to the Northeast states? The trough coming out of the NE?

[WeatherEmperor]

i am rather curious as to why the mornings 12Z models havent come out yet?

<RICKY>

[Frank2]

See Derek's Ott's topic ("QUICKSCAT says...") - apparently the system has opened to a wave.

[wxwatcher91]

Wow, I woke up this morning thinking that things would look more unfavorable as they have every other morning and instead, 06Z models trended MORE towards the coast.

I am in no way a. dare I say it, weenie, but looking at the NHC track and how wide it is... whats to stop it from travelling to the Northeast states? The trough coming out of the NE?

thats what I am thinking too... a possibility is that Irene continues west to WNW for the next few days as a TD or weak TS and then hits favorable conditions just east of the Bahamas causing it to strengthen rapidly. the quick strengthening will cause Irene to recurve and turn northward toward New England...

[WeatherEmperor]

See Derek's Ott's topic ("QUICKSCAT says...") - apparently the system has opened to a wave.

Yup. I got a feeling that has alot to do with it.

<RICKY>

[Frank2]

Yes, the GFDL model was indicating this for the past several days (I don't think the other poster above needs to be concerned about a "New England" hurricane).

Frank

[WeatherEmperor]

Yes, the GFDL model was indicating this for the past several days (I don't think the other poster above needs to be concerned about a "New England" hurricane).

Frank

Yes I agree Frank.

<RICKY>

[ThunderMate]

truth is noone knows where this thing is going..not even the NHC

[Frank2]

Well, since it's dissipated, I don't think that's a concern for them.

[Coredesat]

I wouldn't call it dissipated yet. Check the main Irene thread.

[Thunder44]

It's not dissipated. They are still running models on this system. The center is probably reforming again further NE of it previous position, like AirForceMet said. I can see signs of that on latest visible images as well. Convection has only decreased somewhat from this morning. There's too much of knee-jerk reaction this these short-term changes on this board..

[WeatherEmperor]

It's not dissipated. They are still running models on this system. The center is probably reforming again further NE of it previous position, like AirForceMet said. I can see signs of that on latest visible images as well. Convection has only decreased somewhat from this morning. There's too much of knee-jerk reaction this these short-term changes on this board..

that is the nature of human beings my friend

<RICKY>

[Frank2]

We'll see what happens, though the Quickscat scan showed no signs of a closed circulation, so it will probably be up to the NHC forecaster as to whether he writes it off, or continues it for another cycle.

My guess is that he'll let the depression remain for another cycle, just to make sure. I don't think the posts about dissipation are knee-jerk, since the system has been very weak since yesterday morning.

Frank

[boca]

I think Irene or TD9 will be a threat to the Carolina's on up because the high is supposed to weaken so Florida hopefully will be safe from the howling winds of a depression.

[dixiebreeze]

IMHO, it will be south or central Florida with a Cat. 2 +. Possibly an outside chance for the Georgia or SC coast.

[seaswing]

What time frame are we talking about? when do we need to really start paying attention?

[CronkPSU]

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">

[DESTRUCTION5]

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">

Thats Every model ...Thats amazing? Are all these run off eachother?